Subject: RE: Triathlon CalculatorInteresting......because it could be all about numbers.
What's the goal? Is this for serious competitors? I mean, I'd think they'd already have a better idea of their own personal abilities.
For casual racers...
I know there's some fairly simply equations out there for 70.3 and 140.6
Based on my gander at them, they've been accurate within a rather large window. Just big enough for most to say "yeah, I'll finish" or "Hey Spouse, I think you'd want to be at the finish line sometime around X:30"
Now, on the other hand, if it's personalized and starts "learning" from each race and training session you might be narrowing that window. Of course, races and conditions vary. So, it would take some time to accumulate enough data.
If you've got access to a big database....you might be on to something. IM's new "tracker" is kinda amazing.....in that they aren't a very technological company and have managed to pull of a fairly accurate tracker. I followed several people I know at various races last year and it's "predictions" along the course were pretty accurate. And for me, they actually performed better than a fairly well-known GPS/cellular tracker platform that is rentable at many races.
My bet is, they are tapping into their databases for each race. And their math is adjusted at every step based on gender, age and all the personal timing data that goes in as soon as you cross the first mat. OR....they are really lucky and picked a simple algorithm that's right more often than it's wrong.
Either way, keep noodling. You never know where it leads. You might come up with triathlons "middle out". |