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2022-05-22 7:50 AM

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Subject: Don’t panic?
Is a stock market crash imminent? Naturally most all brokers and investment firm warn against “panic” but no one denies that a crash ‘could’ happen. On black Monday in 1987 the market crashed 22% in one day! Imagine the horror of checking your 401k on Tuesday and seeing 22% of your 401 evaporated like a fart in the wind.

I’m 40% in the market and 60% in cash. I’m retired so am fairly conservative already but put in a trade to go 10/90%. I’ve already lost 8.2% ytd and that was at 40/60.

I have no special insight or inside information but I read the news everyday and thing sure seem to be sliding downhill. Always a chance I jumped to early and I will miss the 8% “rebound” but I can live with an 8% loss better than I can abide a 22% crash.

Don’t mean to sound dooms day and welcome opinions - especially more optimistic views than mine.

My hope is there is a dramatic shift in power in November and markets will begin to rise.


2022-05-23 12:55 PM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Subject: RE: Don’t panic?

If I could accurately predict the stock market, I wouldn't be working for anyone else... 

I think we're seeing some natural corrections and adjustments based on both economic and political conditions.  I don't see the November elections introducing a "miraculous" change to these even if the political change is quite dramatic.  We didn't get into this situation overnight nor will we get out of it overnight. 

Stocks have dominated for years now, mostly because there haven't been a lot of decent alternatives with interest rates held artificially low.  Some of that may change as the Feds will have to raise rates to tame inflation.  Unfortunately, the rates have been held so low for so long that many people working in finance haven't had to work hard to make good decisions and that learning will be expensive.  Cheap money is hard to come by now.  What was it Warren Buffet said?  When the tide goes out, you find out who's not wearing any swim suit. 

Historically, hard assets (real estate, stocks) have fared well during inflationary times.  Gold?  I don't know that any gold bugs have made money since much of the world abandoned the gold standard 50 years ago.  Any more, gold is an industrial commodity rather than a store of wealth.  Cryptocurrency is a way to store wealth but not (IMO) an "investment." 

I think there will be significant downward pressure on the stock market as more and more baby boomers have retired and are now drawing down retirement accounts.  I joked with my mom that I suffer from the boomer demographics (she's an early boomer, I'm a late one)...buying my first house well after the boomers have bid up real estate and making retirement investments after they've bid up stocks.  Unfortunately, there aren't good alternatives to "sit it out." 

I don't know that holding dollars is a great plan...inflation and devaluation as well as world events over the past year or two are giving much of the world pause to continue holding dollars as a reserve currency.  The dollar is much like stocks...the best of a lot of mediocre options.  China and the Renminbi?  China has the economic clout to force other countries to switch, but much of the developed world (rightfully so) doesn't trust the valuation of all things China.  Eurodollars?  The EU is barely holding together and still hasn't resolved fundamental conflicts between Germany/France and Italy/Greece/Spain.  Risky to use that as a store of wealth. 

Is the US destined for a 30-year malaise like Japan has suffered?  Doubtful.  Things may be choppy for a decade.  Do I see Facebook, Google, Amazon, Netflix, Tesla as the "big dogs" in 10 years?  No.  There are thousands of companies out there all creating value and helping customers but not getting any publicity with the press enamored over Musk taking over Twitter. 

I'm probably overexposed to stocks, but don't see much to do differently. 

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