Getting back to (old) normal

Do you wear a seatbelt when you drive Rog? Do you encourage your kids to wear one? Do you carry a patch kit when you go on rides?

This was written a couple years ago, but it's very relevant today. I can only guess you think covid is different, but in what way?
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/three-...

In 1987 I rolled a Z-28 and ended up in the ICU for 3 day. I was ejected thru the t-top. The car flipped upside down and slid for 50’. Had I been wearing a seat belt I would have been decapitated. But I recognized that was the an anomaly and not the norm and have worn a seatbelt ever since. My kids have always worn seat belts. And of course I carry a patch kit. Life is all about assessing the risks and then deciding if I can live with it. Riding a bike on the road is inherently dangerous. In 2008 I was on a lonely country road on my bike and got t-boned by a car crossing the road from a side street. Ended up in the ER. Felt B-12 completely destroyed. Yet I continued to ride and finished my second Ironman that summer. For me, the risk was worth the reward. I used to get into big debates on the tri forum over wearing headphones while biking. People claimed that was “dangerous”. My reply was always, if you think it is dangerous, don’t do it. If you really want to be safe, log all your training miles on your trainer in the garage or bedroom.

My opinion is that sooner or later everyone is going to be exposed to covid. It’s a mathematical certainty. I guess people are putting their hope in a vaccine. BTW, every year there are thousands who get the flu shot and get the flu anyway. I have never had the flu shot and never had the flu. I won’t get the covid vaccine either. I trust my body’s immune system to do what it is supposed to do. How does me getting a vaccine help anyone? I don’t get the flu.

Here’s an interesting fact. During this lockdown traffic fatalities have remained constant or gone up....go figure. Tells me people assess the risk and drive faster to the risk level they are comfortable with.

There may well be a second wave but why would anyone think it will be nearly as severe? The most vulnerable have already had it and either died or recovered.

The odds are good there will also be another virus or deadly flu. I just refuse to live in fear.

Listed below is a list of countries with the death rate for COVID-19 after confirmed when compared to the USA (Source WorldOmeter).

1. Belgium - 2.75 times more deaths
2. Spain - 1.67 times more deaths
3. Italy - 2.38 times more deaths
4. UK - 2.37 times more deaths
5. France - 2.63 times more deaths
6. Sweden - 2.04 times more deaths
7. Netherlands - 2.17 times more deaths
8. Hungary - 2.2 times more deaths
9. Canada - 1.26 times more deaths

Have we responded better than these countries? Do we just have better health care? Are USA COVID-19 deaths over or under reported? Notice also countries on the list with socialized medicine.

Rog, you don't sound as optimistic in your response. You did say what's important, and that everything is calculated risk, and that you do take precautions for risk. What would be the point of precautions if you always expect the best case scenario?

Life is general is inherently dangerous, I'm glad you survived the crash. It seems it took a severe crash to make you recognize the risk, it seems foolish to not apply that to other aspects of your life. Complete isolation is not a long term solution, but there are other ways to mitigate risk which I'm sure you are well aware of. It's no surprise that Asian countries where it's not culturally awkward to wear a mask have had much better success in mitigating infection. Toyko has a larger population than NYC, but only has 1,300 active cases and a few hundred deaths. I guess all that's coincidence.

Maybe instead of looking at countries who do worse as an excuse to not improve, you should look at countries that do better and take lessons from them. If people were more thoughtful about how their actions affected others and not just themselves we would be in an even better place, but people are selfish. Being asked to do something that improves the health of not only themselves but the people around them is seen as some sort of control or giving into fear, yet it is no different than wearing a seat belt.

The odds of another virus and even deadlier flu are more than just good, but a near certainty. My only hope is we learn something from all this as a country and as individuals, whether another wave comes or not. Minor inconveniences can often make big impacts and doesn't mean you are "living in fear", only mitigating risk for you and those around you.

?

Per your source, Canada has 155 deaths/million, US has 278.

How did you get "1.26 more deaths" ?




Edited by marcag 2020-05-18 7:29 PM

Just heard on the news. For people under the age of 60 covid if FAR less deadly than the seasonal flu. This is tru in the US and in the rear of the world. For children, deaths age extremely rare. But you won’t hear this reported. Seems some people want to keep the country in fear and locked down....despite suicide, domestic violence and child abuse on the rise.

I am optimistic but am not Poly Annaish. I know there are risks and I take precaution when appropriate. Makes sense to wear a seatbelt in my truck....but not a helmet and fire suit.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Look at the number of deaths per million divided by the number of cases.

Well go here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Sort by deaths/million and you will see you made top 10 :-) Congratulations.
(Countries like Andorra...are not countries. They are basically villages in the middle of France and Spain)

In fairness, remove NYC and US is closer to Canada. Then again remove the Canadian Cluster..uck in Quebec and we are way below

But to be really fair, we both got a huge heads up from Europe and could have done much better

Province of Quebec gives really detailed stats.
Yes, the overwhelming number of deaths is > 60. However the largest number of hospitalizations were < 50 years old.

I do believe we need to re-open. But down playing hat just happened will only lead to unnecessary loss of lives.

Deaths per million/total cases per million
155/2071= 0.075
278/4686= 0.059

.075/.059= 1.27 more deaths in Canada per million

Cases per million is a total bogus number given testing is all over the map
But if it make you feel good about how you did.....go for it


Edited by marcag 2020-05-18 7:58 PM

It’s the only data available. Maybe y’all should test more to get more representative numbers. :-)

I’ve said all along the more testing is done the more it will be revealed this was not much worse than the flu. Time will tell. Of course, no one will ever admit we overreacted. For fear the next pandemic will be ignored.

yes, we are at a mere 35k/million tests, while you are at a blistering 37k.

We are at a pathetic 40th in the world, you are at an incredible 38th.

I do understand our politicians saying they misfired on our testing while your prez claims to be #1 in the world.

LOL. Yeah I pres likes to brag and stretch the truth. It’s part of his job as cheerleader in chief. Lord knows we need someone to counter the doom and gloom media.


Consider this. Look at the bell graph that is forming on the number of cases. While the curve was increasing there was very little testing. Now that we have massive testing, one would think the number of ‘cases’ would sky rocket. But the number of cases continues to drop. Someone explain this.

Presumably before testing the only way one knew they had covid is when they went to the doctor and you didn’t count asymptomatic people. Now with massive testing presumably we include those people. Again, the daily cases went down, not up.

What am I missing?

You are not on the Left, that's what you are missing. Bro, this is politics now, not science. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.....choose your poison.

There was an interesting guy the other day speaking about testing. What he said made sense (to me)

He said we should be separating testing depending on what we are looking for. Testing to date was not a valid measure of how wide spread the disease is. He claimed the way we currently test is not representative of the spread in the population. Diagnosis should be different than prevention, different from understand status.....

For example in Ontario we only test 1) if you have symptoms 2) if you are in a situation of exposing many more people. This is great for treating patients and protecting the old but it does not measure how spread the disease is in the general population.

Currently the most accurate assessment of where we stand is % of ICU beds occupied and deaths. As long as these numbers are "under control" we should proceed gradually.

Quebec has a great site that digs into all the metrics and it is fascinating. Hospitalizations per age, recovery per age, type of residence the person came from......It shows that looking at only a small portion of the data skews perception in a dangerous direction.

BTW, the political BS you are experiencing is very unique to the US. Speaking to friends and colleagues all over, people have different assessments of how their politicians are doing but nothing crazy like you guys. And to those that believe this is all made up by the media, look elsewhere where the media is quite responsible and things aren't pretty.

See, that's the thing.  Things are actually fine in the majority of the U.S.  And they will be fine going forward.  As I've said, I have been out in the public since day one in a major metro area......NOTHING I have seen matches anything I see from the media.  You can count the medical workers in that statement as well.  I have had the opportunity to talk to dozens.

Edited by Left Brain 2020-05-20 8:56 AM

That's pretty common around the world. In many countries, you have a few areas hit really bad and elsewhere it is under control. Italy was one of the first and hardest hit. Exclude the Northern area and it was "minor".

I think Montreal, for very specific reasons is one of the worst cities in the world. Toronto, which is far more populated is in good shape.

Areas mildly hit don't need to stay closed but they do have to make sure they have the ability to cope if they do get hit. With the mobility we have during "normal" times, this thing can flair up anywhere.

Management of retirement homes varies a lot from province to province. Quebec has a class of retirement homes that are very very low cost but the quality is horrid. It has been a problem for years. But people ignored it. So you have the most vulnerable, being taken care of by low wage workers, totally mismanaged and with ridiculous bureaucracy. The workers were not properly protected and screened and they infected the older population who are vulnerable. It was a $hit show, workers not showing up for work.....

So when you look at the stats, the overwhelming numbers of deaths is in the 70s and 80s, like other places, but more specifically those in that class of homes. This was 100% preventable. The government acknowledges it, of course blames previous governments, which is partially fair. But as a society we collectively say, WE screwed up. I believe this whole mess has brought us closer together in some ways.

Quebec has 4x the number of deaths/million than Ontario.

Edited by marcag 2020-05-20 10:46 AM

Gotcha - that's been an issue here as well. Almost 70% of the deaths in my area are from nursing homes. And specifically, they are from nursing homes in lower income areas. Not sure how to fix that. It's an old problem with new victims.

Edited by Left Brain 2020-05-20 11:24 AM