Make your prediction

300/238 Biden, maybe a little lower than 300

Edited by marcag 2020-11-02 6:41 AM

319/218 Biden

288/249 Trump wins

Edited by CBarnes 2020-11-02 3:15 PM

The fact that our predictions vary so widely is interesting. Shows the uncertainty of this election. Maybe I’m putting too much stock in the enthusiasm gap? Maybe I’m letting my ‘hope’ cloud my analytical thinking? Just glad it is almost over. I do hope that whomever wins, wins decisively so there aren’t endless lawsuits and recounts.

If you are voting today, let us know your voting experience. I expect longer than normal lines but being retired I have the luxury of voting during off-peak hours.

You and LB are very close to this:

https://medium.com/@PhillipStutts/election-analysis-exclusive-here-i...

Good analysis IMO.

I think 288+ very, very likely.

I looked at all the RCP averages in the battleground states and all are within 2% except MI, MN and WI. If based on the analysis in the pp is right there is at least a 2 point bias in the polling. This would give Trump all the battleground states except these three. In two of those 3 the spread is 4 points and on is 6. So, depending on the degree of bias, Trump could pick up 2 of the 3. If they are 6 points out he will pick up WI too putting Trump at 324.

Edited by Rogillio 2020-11-03 5:26 AM

My wife and I voted when the polls in Fort Wayne, Indiana opened at 6 this morning. We got there about 20 minutes early and were around 37-38 in line. When polls opened at 6, there were around 80-100 in line. Things moved quickly with 12 voting machines. When we left the line was well out the door at this large church and I would guess over 120 in line. This is a new polling place for me so I don't know what is typical. If I had to guess, I would say the turn out is higher than usual so far.

Just got back from voting. From the time I got out of my truck till I got back in was 42 minutes. As I was leaving noticed the line was 15 minutes shorter than when I got there.

Love our voting place. It’s in the gym of our church. They have iPads and you show your DL and it scans the code on the back and brings up your picture and info on the iPad. The poll worker look to see if your face matches the photo and then you sign the tablet. They give you a ticket that you take to another table to get your ballot and a brand new pen to use and keep. Fill in the bubbles then feed ballot into machine that reads your vote. Simple, secure, fast and leaves a hard copy as well as electronic copy of your vote. Your ballot is linked to your ticket and your ticket is linked to the data they have on file.

In the county where we live we have 1400 polling places to choose from. There is an app that shows number of people in line. We drove 10 minutes to hit a live that had 11 people in it. Done in 12 minutes. 6 votes for Trump including Grandma.

Trump has all the momentum right now.....batten down the hatches!! LMAO

Lou Donna reported last hour the betting odds have flipped to Trump 60%.

2016 all over again......of course.

Biden's odds aren't looking great, like I said from the very beginning, it all came down to PA. The AZ swing was a surprise, we will see if it changes much as the last of the counts come in. Life goes on.

Yes, you were still right. LOL

As of this morning (227/214) Trump is ahead in 4 of the remaining states. Alaska is a given. Trump needs GA, NC, PA and MI and based on the votes counted so far he is ahead in each of them.

If the numbers hold, it will be 284/254 Trump.

Still possible to pick up WI but also still possible the lead changes in other states as well.

They haven’t made the calls yet but based on current numbers it looks like Dems keep the House and GOP keep the Senate.

Of course nothing is over yet but better to be ahead and hope the lead holds than to be behind and hope the lead changes.

Edited by Rogillio 2020-11-04 7:00 AM

First I don't think it's over. MI may go Democrat, NV may, WI may. With these Biden has 270... It's not over.

What is clear, is if Trump wins, and he lets the votes be counted. he deserved it and people have to respect the decision.

Yup, they SHOULD respect it. But there will be small groups of people that will lose their collective sh1t over a Trump victory and protest. It's pointless, but it will happen if things go his way.

I was surprised this morning when Biden was ahead in MI and WI, he was down by a lot last night. This is going to drag on for weeks, plan on recounts and lawyers getting involved.

Regardless of who wins, I think everyone here can all agree that Trump single handedly drove record voter turnout this election on both sides.

Michigan looking better for Biden. Most votes note counted are around Detroit that so far has been strong for Biden. Not conclusive at this point.

“Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?”

I think it wrong to have to wait several day for PA to count 1M absentee ballots. It’s one thing to have to wait to count last minute mail in ballots but to not even start till Election Day is ridiculous IMO.

My prediction on the remaining 7 states:

Biden take AZ, NV, Wi.

Trump takes AK, GA, NC, PA and MI for the win.

I also predict if Trump loses PA it will be contested to the SC.

I read that CNN reported Biden needs to win 75% of remaking votes to win PA.

The good news for the GOP is they keep the Senate and can stop Dems from packing the court. That was my biggest concern going into this election. So even if Trump loses I still have something to be happy about.

It's over. Biden will take NV, WI, MI. With NE-2, that puts him at 270.

PA likely Biden also. GA is up in the air.

In the end, Biden will have 290 or 306.