Ukraine

I don't know.  Russia's entire Black Sea fleet is based on the Crimean peninsula.....if the Ukraine is going to dissolve into unrest, they are probably making the only move they can. 

No, it's not lost on me that Russia/Putin steered Kiev away from the promise of more pro-western govt. that Yanukovych was elected on, and Ukrainians were right to oust him.....but here they are, now dealing with Putin on a different level.

Russia will protect it's interests in the region.  Putin has no fear of the West.  My bet is that Crimea, at a minimum, becomes part of Russia no matter how much Obama and the rest of the Western leaders jump up and down.

It depends......if Putin stops at the occupation/annexation of Crimea, things may settle down and the world will be happy to go on.  The ball is actually in the hands of the Ukranian people.....how much fight do they have?  They elected a weak leader who was compromised by Putin......he's still KGB at his core and longs for the days of the Soviet Union, no?   The Ukranians and the world may be better served to cut their losses and move on.

Now......if Putin moves on Kiev, then yeah, he's going to have much bigger probelms.  I just think the folks who think Putin hasn't thought this out are underestimating the guy.

Agree completely. 

My great-grandparents emigrated here from the former Yugoslavia.....I have always been keenly interested in the history and politics of the region.  It's pretty fascinating really.  The different cultures who live together in a very small area of the world makes it a much more volatile place then our country could ever be, no matter our differences. 

It's funny to me how different we see each other here......we're actually much more civil toward differences than much of the world is, and our differences certainly don't add up to much worth fighting for.

Truth.

Does anyone think Russia is handling the situation reasonably well, all things considered? I have the impression we would have been bombing by now.

Russia created the problem, make no mistake about that.  What Putin is doing is playing his game very well. Like I said earlier.....if he stops at with the Crimean peninsula there may be no blowblack at all.....but if he gets greedy there will be problems IMO.  So yeah, in that regard, he's handled it well......but I'd bet this has been in the works as a contingency for some time.

"elected" yeah... this is the same guy that had his first (fradulent) election nullified after the Orange revolution, and won in 2010 under similar dubious circumstances.  Very, very corrupt, and a puppet of Russia.

The division between Russian and Ukrainian speakers - that's just something the Western press likes to play up.  Everyone there pretty much speaks both, and some words / phrases are mixed and matched.  There's not this constant animosity that the media would have you believe.  As for the media THERE, it's mostly owned by oligarchs and it's a constant barrage of propaganda one way or the other.  It makes MSNBC and Fox look like buddies.  You think politics are tough in the U.S. - heh... it's a full contact sport in Ukraine and Russia.

Putin is playing up the "facism / nazi" card in the eastern regions to undermine Kyiv.  But Ukrainians have a long memory and I think even in Donetsk and Kharkiv, they'd rather work with Russia than be absorbed by Russia.  Read up on Holodomor, the demolition of St. Michael's cathedral, deportation of Tatars from Crimea, etc.  There's a lot of resentment that won't go away with a rigged vote or a few Russian controlled tv stations.

My girlfriend is Ukrainian and we were there in Kyiv last June, so I have a little different perspective on what's happening.

Eh....I'm not downplaying your GF's perspective, but the fact is, there are quite a few Ukrainians here, along with others from the region.....and quite a few have settled near where I live...along with my interest in that region of the world due to my own heritage.  The Crimean peninsula will go to Russia....watch and see....and the world will stand down if that's as far as it goes.

I'm not saying it's right or wrong......it's just the easiest way.....Putin has long known this.

It really depends on whether Russia's uber-rich continue to support Putin or not.  He'll get it in the short term.  Long term will depend mostly on Germany and who's willing to hold out the longest in a trade war.

Turkey could also be a factor as they will not want Russia dominating the Black Sea.

They will for Crimea......any further push by him and maybe/probably not.  Putin's a sharp guy playing a chess match.....all he did was make a move he knew he could make.

I hear a lot about economic sanctions and trade wars to try and get Russia back "in line", but is this really a viable weapon.  I'll admit I don't know a ton about their economy, but I think they export a lot more than they import and Iran and China will certainly side with them in the long run.

Mental note, if your sanctions cause their markets to rally then you're probably not going far enough.  

Report: Weak White House Sanctions Rally Russian Market

I can't imagine a man of Putin's background takes Obama seriously about anything.  The Russian market is probably laughing as well.

No, now go away or I shall taunt you a second time. (spoken with Russian as opposed to French accent)

In fairness, Ukraine should've required NATO membership as a condition of giving up their nukes.  That would've put the U.S. and EU into a situation that *required* their attention, rather than just words.

Yeah, that's a good call, but we're not there.  As it stands, we have a very small hammer, and very small words.....and Putin knows it.

I don't disagree, but I seriously question the will of NATO or the US for that matter engaging militarily with Russia.  With the size of Russia's economy I would even question the ability of NATO to impose strong sanctions against Russia.  It would be like the world sanctioning the US.  It would likely result in far more pain worldwide than it would here.  So, unless somebody (cough, the US) is willing to go toe to toe with Russia then they will do whatever they want.

Love it.  Now that Obama has "Sanctioned" reps from Russia, Putin turns around and sanctions our reps.  You really showed him Obama.  

Any thoughts?  I thought the sanctions were silly, apparently Russia agrees with me.