War in Ukraine

On May 9th, which is Russian's holiday (Victory Day).

But in all seriousness, nobody knows. Too many speculations, and if you noticed so far - there are more surprises than obviousness.

Interesting date

By then

There will be a cease-fire
Crimea will 'officially' be Russian
Donbas region will 'officially' be Russian
NATO will never be allowed to setup shop.

Putin will have everything he said he wanted, except maybe ousting the current Regime. He will claim victory.
He will have accomplished what he set out to do and in the process killing thousands Ukranians and his old soldiers and setting the Russian economy back 10-15 years minimum.
NATO will be stronger than ever and Trump will get his wish the members all pay more. He won't get his wish of disbanding NATO.

China now knows what to expect if they invade Taiwan.


WAG


Edited by marcag 2022-03-30 7:12 AM

Sad... but I think you summarized it very well.

 

I don't think I disagree.  Can you expound on how you got there?  I'm not trying to punk you.  Like I said, I'm leaning that way.  Just curious how we both got to the same place...with only a few discrepancies.

Edited by Left Brain 2022-04-12 12:12 AM

War ends with the death of Putin. Putin cannot lose the war if he does, he is done, and it appears the window for Russia to win has passed if it ever existed. If and that is a big IF Ukraine is getting the weapons that the media is now reporting with the loss of leadership and equipment Russia no longer has the capacity to mount a strong enough offensive to keep and hold the south and east. They can continue to wreak Ukrainian cities, but the Ukrainians are starting to have the weapons to return the favor and do not think the Russians want that. So, I submit Putin dies of complications from an undisclosed illness the new Russian leadership declares a ceasefire, and, in the end, the national borders remain unchanged from the start of the war within 2 years Ukraine is part of an enlarged NATO

Thanks for sharing an informative post

I don’t have a prediction about Ukraine but Finland and Sweden formally submitted their applications to join NATO in May 2022. The expansion of NATO was one of the things Putin supposedly concerned about and cited as one of the reasons (excuses) for invading Ukraine. Well the invasion seems to backfired in that regard.

We have a neighbor that is about 23 who has a brother in Ukraine and she said the region her brother is in is well defended and they have barriers up to prohibit invasion however they are still vulnerable to missile attacks. She said last week the place next door to her brothers mechanic show was destroyed. She works some for my wife taking care of my wife’s horses. I said something about the money my wife was paying her and she said she was saving her earnings to send to her brother. I gave her a hundred buck and told her to send that to her brother.

At this point I think there has to be a way to allow Putin to withdraw and somewhat be able to save face. My fear is that in an act of desperation he goes nuclear as a test of the will of the west/US/NATO.

Define Russia: did you mean the people, regular citizens, or those in power?
The history of Russia shows that those in power do not really care what the millions of their citizens feel or think. The only exception was 1917, but the context was much different.
As you can see from the history, the Soviets recognized propaganda as a very powerful tool, and used it very consistently. And they still use that to this day. Putin is not feeding his poeple misinformation since yesterday - it's been decades. The majority of the country knows nothing else but what Russian media is telling them.
Keep in mind the mentality: except few large cities in a humongous country of Russia, not that many people know what it means to have even a minimal prosperity. For them nothing has changed for the last 100 years. They are used to poverty or whatever conditions they've been living. Taking away McDonalds and Starbucks will make difference only in the few big cities.
Anywa, to your point: most of the people, especially further East and rural areas, even if their conditions get worse, they will know (as they've been told) that it's all West fault, Nato's fault, US fault. They will blame them for everything. I honestly don't believe the people will go against Putin. Current situation is very very very much different than it was in 1917.

Now, if you meant too painful to those in power - I also don't think that will happen. Putin does not care, and those around him are too scared to do anything.