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 2015-12-10 9:41 AM in reply to: tuwood |
Master  2802    Minnetonka, Minnesota |  Subject: RE: TrumpOriginally posted by tuwood Originally posted by Brit Abroad It's like election Groundhog Day for the Republican party. 1. Republican candidate appeals to Conservative base with divisive rhetoric, and fear mongering (we need guns, religion, and more Jesus)
Can't deny that they're reliable. I see a lot of wishful thinking like this on the internet, but history isn't quite as you remember it and it works both ways. All candidates cater to their base in the primary (democrats and republicans) so it's silly to say that this only effects Republicans. Go back to the prior two elections and we see the same problem the Republicans had, only it was on the Democratic side who came out on the short end with out of touch elitists who had little support or excitement from their base. (Gore/Kerry) Now, we're heading into 2016 with the Republicans who have a populist candidate with HUGE support from a broad constituency within the Republican party. He leads in women, men, old dudes, young dudes, etc. I think the only place Trump isn't leading is with the religious vote because he's about the least religious guy in the race (on both sides of the isle). So, it is deja vu all over again but I don't think you're going to like the vu this time around. HUGE? I hope that was a Trump pun. He's got like a max of 35% of the R primary vote and no establishment support, which is often one of the keys to winning the nomination. |
| 2015-12-10 10:00 AM in reply to: ejshowers |
Pro 9391  Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Trump Originally posted by ejshowers Originally posted by tuwood HUGE? I hope that was a Trump pun. He's got like a max of 35% of the R primary vote and no establishment support, which is often one of the keys to winning the nomination. Originally posted by Brit Abroad It's like election Groundhog Day for the Republican party. 1. Republican candidate appeals to Conservative base with divisive rhetoric, and fear mongering (we need guns, religion, and more Jesus)
Can't deny that they're reliable. I see a lot of wishful thinking like this on the internet, but history isn't quite as you remember it and it works both ways. All candidates cater to their base in the primary (democrats and republicans) so it's silly to say that this only effects Republicans. Go back to the prior two elections and we see the same problem the Republicans had, only it was on the Democratic side who came out on the short end with out of touch elitists who had little support or excitement from their base. (Gore/Kerry) Now, we're heading into 2016 with the Republicans who have a populist candidate with HUGE support from a broad constituency within the Republican party. He leads in women, men, old dudes, young dudes, etc. I think the only place Trump isn't leading is with the religious vote because he's about the least religious guy in the race (on both sides of the isle). So, it is deja vu all over again but I don't think you're going to like the vu this time around. Yes the HUGE was a Trump pun. I can't say that word without using the Trump voice anymore (in any context). I saw some pictures over the weekend of Trump's rally's with 15k-20k people in contrast with Carly, Bush, and Rubio which were barely over 100 people. Carly had one event where there were seriously like 10 people that showed up. There are people that "support" them, but they're not "excited" about them. Similar to Hillary, she has a lot of people who "support" her, but there are not very many who are excited about her. Even here in BT a lot of you guys support her and will vote for her, Obama had HUGE (read it with Trump voice) crowds in the primary run. Hillary had a lot of "support" back then too, but she didn't have any enthusiasm. Obama had HUGE support and HUGE enthusiasm which is what mattered. At this time in 2007 Obama was barely polling 24% in a two person primary.
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| 2015-12-10 10:36 AM in reply to: 0 |
Master 2802 Minnetonka, Minnesota | Subject: RE: Trump Originally posted by tuwood Originally posted by ejshowers Originally posted by tuwood HUGE? I hope that was a Trump pun. He's got like a max of 35% of the R primary vote and no establishment support, which is often one of the keys to winning the nomination. Originally posted by Brit Abroad It's like election Groundhog Day for the Republican party. 1. Republican candidate appeals to Conservative base with divisive rhetoric, and fear mongering (we need guns, religion, and more Jesus)
Can't deny that they're reliable. I see a lot of wishful thinking like this on the internet, but history isn't quite as you remember it and it works both ways. All candidates cater to their base in the primary (democrats and republicans) so it's silly to say that this only effects Republicans. Go back to the prior two elections and we see the same problem the Republicans had, only it was on the Democratic side who came out on the short end with out of touch elitists who had little support or excitement from their base. (Gore/Kerry) Now, we're heading into 2016 with the Republicans who have a populist candidate with HUGE support from a broad constituency within the Republican party. He leads in women, men, old dudes, young dudes, etc. I think the only place Trump isn't leading is with the religious vote because he's about the least religious guy in the race (on both sides of the isle). So, it is deja vu all over again but I don't think you're going to like the vu this time around. Yes the HUGE was a Trump pun. I can't say that word without using the Trump voice anymore (in any context). I saw some pictures over the weekend of Trump's rally's with 15k-20k people in contrast with Carly, Bush, and Rubio which were barely over 100 people. Carly had one event where there were seriously like 10 people that showed up. There are people that "support" them, but they're not "excited" about them. Similar to Hillary, she has a lot of people who "support" her, but there are not very many who are excited about her. Even here in BT a lot of you guys support her and will vote for her, Obama had HUGE (read it with Trump voice) crowds in the primary run. Hillary had a lot of "support" back then too, but she didn't have any enthusiasm. Obama had HUGE support and HUGE enthusiasm which is what mattered. At this time in 2007 Obama was barely polling 24% in a two person primary.
Yes, but Obama did not pi$$ off and alienate the entire party establishment, elected officials and elders, so they rallied behind him just fine. Trump does not have that going for him. The primaries are run by the respective Parties. They have ultimate control over it and could doom Trump even if he had a majority of popular R support (which I don't think he will ever get). Google what political analysts think his chances are. Not too many give him even a fighting chance. Edited by ejshowers 2015-12-10 10:37 AM |
| 2015-12-10 10:55 AM in reply to: ejshowers |
Pro 6838 Tejas | Subject: RE: Trump Originally posted by ejshowers Originally posted by tuwood Yes, but Obama did not pi$$ off and alienate the entire party establishment, elected officials and elders, so they rallied behind him just fine. Trump does not have that going for him. The primaries are run by the respective Parties. They have ultimate control over it and could doom Trump even if he had a majority of popular R support (which I don't think he will ever get). Google what political analysts think his chances are. Not too many give him even a fighting chance. I think it's worth noting that the entire republican establishment has their money behind Bush and if Trump dropped dead today, they'd focus their ire on Cruz and the rest. They aren't going to be happy until they get their boy Bush at the big table. I do seem to recall that while obama didn't poke his finger in the eye of the democrat party, he had the Clinton machine really really really fizzed off. The clinton and obama campaigns were in the process of self destructing before the party shifted gears and threw their support behind obama with the caveat that clinton get the State Dept. and full party backing for this election cycle. The republican party leadership doesn't have enough sense or flexibility to change gears, even though it will most likely mean losing the WH. When it comes to big picture political strategy, the republicans are the equivalent of having the JV playing against the NE Patriots. |
| 2015-12-10 10:59 AM in reply to: 0 |
| Deep in the Heart of Texas | Subject: RE: Trump There is a potential benefit to the GOP with Trump as a front runner for so long. Right now, all of the focus is on him and his ridiculousness. He has not been substantively attacking any of the other GOP candidates, so most of them are cruising through the primary season without really getting beat up. Ultimately, the GOP nominee will be able to make his (or her) case to the American people during the general election cycle without having to sustain months of direct attacks from other GOP primary candidates. Potentially, Cruz has the most to gain by the prolonged Trump run. Unless Trump wins the primary. If that happens, the GOP deserves to lose. Edited by Hook'em 2015-12-10 11:01 AM |
| 2015-12-10 11:09 AM in reply to: mdg2003 |
Pro 6838 Tejas | Subject: RE: Trump Oddly enough, Mrs. mdg2003 loves Trump. No matter what she hears on all the liberal media she subscribes to, she loves the guy. Two time obama voter who caucused with obama in the 08 Texas primary. Same lady that put an obama sign in our front yard during the 08 cycle ( in a really red neighborhood  ). She still loves him. I'm sure it's not a trend among most obama voters, but just an oddity or a sign that the missus is losing her shiite. Maybe I should buy long term care insurance on her before she gets diagnosed? |
| 2015-12-10 11:39 AM in reply to: mdg2003 |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: Trump Trump or Hillary ......I'm voting for Trump. If he gets elected I'm buying stock in plywood......because there's going to be a lot of windows that will need boarded up. LMAO |
| 2015-12-10 1:38 PM in reply to: Left Brain |
| Deep in the Heart of Texas | Subject: RE: Trump |
| 2015-12-10 2:13 PM in reply to: ejshowers |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Trump Originally posted by ejshowers Originally posted by tuwood Yes, but Obama did not pi$$ off and alienate the entire party establishment, elected officials and elders, so they rallied behind him just fine. Trump does not have that going for him. The primaries are run by the respective Parties. They have ultimate control over it and could doom Trump even if he had a majority of popular R support (which I don't think he will ever get). Google what political analysts think his chances are. Not too many give him even a fighting chance. Originally posted by ejshowers Originally posted by tuwood HUGE? I hope that was a Trump pun. He's got like a max of 35% of the R primary vote and no establishment support, which is often one of the keys to winning the nomination. Originally posted by Brit Abroad It's like election Groundhog Day for the Republican party. 1. Republican candidate appeals to Conservative base with divisive rhetoric, and fear mongering (we need guns, religion, and more Jesus)
Can't deny that they're reliable. I see a lot of wishful thinking like this on the internet, but history isn't quite as you remember it and it works both ways. All candidates cater to their base in the primary (democrats and republicans) so it's silly to say that this only effects Republicans. Go back to the prior two elections and we see the same problem the Republicans had, only it was on the Democratic side who came out on the short end with out of touch elitists who had little support or excitement from their base. (Gore/Kerry) Now, we're heading into 2016 with the Republicans who have a populist candidate with HUGE support from a broad constituency within the Republican party. He leads in women, men, old dudes, young dudes, etc. I think the only place Trump isn't leading is with the religious vote because he's about the least religious guy in the race (on both sides of the isle). So, it is deja vu all over again but I don't think you're going to like the vu this time around. Yes the HUGE was a Trump pun. I can't say that word without using the Trump voice anymore (in any context). I saw some pictures over the weekend of Trump's rally's with 15k-20k people in contrast with Carly, Bush, and Rubio which were barely over 100 people. Carly had one event where there were seriously like 10 people that showed up. There are people that "support" them, but they're not "excited" about them. Similar to Hillary, she has a lot of people who "support" her, but there are not very many who are excited about her. Even here in BT a lot of you guys support her and will vote for her, Obama had HUGE (read it with Trump voice) crowds in the primary run. Hillary had a lot of "support" back then too, but she didn't have any enthusiasm. Obama had HUGE support and HUGE enthusiasm which is what mattered. At this time in 2007 Obama was barely polling 24% in a two person primary.
The inconvenient truth for the party establishment is that the people are really in charge. The way they controlled everything in the past was with money. Do as we say or we won't give you any money. With Trump this line of thinking is ineffective so he will do what he wants to do. I know there's a lot of talk of him going third party, but I feel it's really a political statement by Trump to leave it out there to keep the party establishment in check. "If you go against me I will destroy the election for you by going third party". Obama didn't have the party establishment behind him at first, but they did get behind him after Hillary went down. I have no doubt that if Trump wins the primary the party establishment will fully back him. They might not like him, but they will back him. Trump's campaign has been buried dead by the media and political pundits since he got started, but that's because they're playing by the "whoever has the establishment backing always wins" rulebook. They have been wrong all the way until now, so I see no reason to think they'll suddenly be right. |
| 2015-12-10 2:20 PM in reply to: 0 |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Trump Originally posted by Hook'em There is a potential benefit to the GOP with Trump as a front runner for so long. Right now, all of the focus is on him and his ridiculousness. He has not been substantively attacking any of the other GOP candidates, so most of them are cruising through the primary season without really getting beat up. Ultimately, the GOP nominee will be able to make his (or her) case to the American people during the general election cycle without having to sustain months of direct attacks from other GOP primary candidates. Potentially, Cruz has the most to gain by the prolonged Trump run. Unless Trump wins the primary. If that happens, the GOP deserves to lose. I know a lot of Liberals can't stand Trump and can't possibly see how he could win, but the polls just don't play out that way. I see Trump as right there within a couple points or leading by a couple points in pretty much every head to head national poll with Clinton. Essentially they're both within the margin of error. If Trumps such a horrible candidate then what does that say about Hillary? lol
*Edit Latest poll average from huffpo
Edited by tuwood 2015-12-10 2:36 PM |
| 2015-12-10 2:25 PM in reply to: mdg2003 |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Trump Originally posted by mdg2003 Oddly enough, Mrs. mdg2003 loves Trump. No matter what she hears on all the liberal media she subscribes to, she loves the guy. Two time obama voter who caucused with obama in the 08 Texas primary. Same lady that put an obama sign in our front yard during the 08 cycle ( in a really red neighborhood ). She still loves him. I'm sure it's not a trend among most obama voters, but just an oddity or a sign that the missus is losing her shiite. Maybe I should buy long term care insurance on her before she gets diagnosed? I've seen a lot of people I didn't expect to like Trump like him a lot as well. My wife is pretty anti political in general and she really likes him. My mother who voted for Obama twice and is what I'd call a farmer/blue collar democrat really likes him. Trump is a unique politician and draws support from a lot of places we're not used to. I like him because I feel he's the least "bought" candidate and the economy is my number one issue. |
| 2015-12-10 2:27 PM in reply to: Hook'em |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Trump |
| 2015-12-10 2:54 PM in reply to: tuwood |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: Trump If Trump gets the nod from the GOP he will beat Hillary.....watch and see. |
| 2015-12-10 3:14 PM in reply to: Left Brain |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Trump Originally posted by Left Brain If Trump gets the nod from the GOP he will beat Hillary.....watch and see. I know trump has a lot of issues, but Hillary has a lot more. lol That's the real elephant in the room (with cankles) |
| 2015-12-10 8:58 PM in reply to: tuwood |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Trump Speaking of which. Hillary had a disastrous poll that came out this morning: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/morning-consult-23281 Trump 45% Clinton 40% The poll has Clinton’s unfavorable numbers at 54 percent. She's even worse than Trump lol. Also, Obama’s job disapproval is at 59 percent with 74 percent saying the country is on the wrong track. Sounds like a landslide in the works for Hillary.
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| 2015-12-11 2:50 PM in reply to: tuwood |
Extreme Veteran 3025 Maryland | Subject: RE: Trump Heres a thing from a real liberal site, just interested to see what you make of this/your reactions |
| 2015-12-11 3:49 PM in reply to: 0 |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: Trump Originally posted by dmiller5 Heres a thing from a real liberal site, just interested to see what you make of this/your reactions I think Clinton (or the clinton machine) will pull some underhanded crap and sink him. If he gets the nod then I think he can beat Trump.....but first he has to beat Cankles Clinton. Edited by Left Brain 2015-12-11 3:52 PM |
| 2015-12-11 4:26 PM in reply to: Left Brain |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Trump Make sure you watch the Trump town hall tonight. I'll be the guy streaking across the stage. |
| 2015-12-12 5:17 PM in reply to: tuwood |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Trump Had a great time at the Trump Town Hall last night. There was a great turnout and the crowd was having a great time. Supposedly it was the largest Town Hall in the history of Iowa politics. Trump is an absolutely master at connecting with people. It's hard to explain, but even if you don't agree with his politics it would be hard to walk out of there without liking the guy. I have been Cruz 1, Trump 2 for quite a while but I'm officially putting Trump as a solid 1. I even grabbed a Trump sign for the front yard. haha They gave me a Trump campaign button that I put on my jacket and I forgot it was there when I went shopping with my wife today. I was stunned at how many people came up and talked to me about how much they love Trump. His support is real, and the "silent majority" he keeps talking about is legit.
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| 2015-12-12 5:37 PM in reply to: tuwood |
Master 2802 Minnetonka, Minnesota | Subject: RE: Trump Let's correct that and say Trump connects with SOME people... "Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz has surged ahead to become the latest front-runner in the campaign for the Iowa caucuses, dislodging Ben Carson and opening an impressive lead over a stalled Donald Trump, a Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows." |
| 2015-12-12 6:42 PM in reply to: 0 |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Trump Originally posted by ejshowers Let's correct that and say Trump connects with SOME people... "Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz has surged ahead to become the latest front-runner in the campaign for the Iowa caucuses, dislodging Ben Carson and opening an impressive lead over a stalled Donald Trump, a Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows." he talked about that one last night. Says the Des Moines register is always way off compared to all the other pollsters. CNN had Trump up over 10 points yesterday so who knows. Lol even if cruz takes iowa he's way back in pretty much every other early primary state.
**edit btw on the connecting with people I was referring to the people in the room. Edited by tuwood 2015-12-12 6:43 PM |
| 2015-12-12 8:50 PM in reply to: tuwood |
Champion 7821 Brooklyn, NY | Subject: RE: Trump Originally posted by tuwood I'm officially putting Trump as a solid 1. Whew, it's lucky I was sitting down. How about a little warning before you drop a bombshell like that? I did NOT see that coming.  |
| 2015-12-13 8:33 AM in reply to: jmk-brooklyn |
Pro 6838 Tejas | Subject: RE: Trump Originally posted by jmk-brooklyn Originally posted by tuwood I'm officially putting Trump as a solid 1. Whew, it's lucky I was sitting down. How about a little warning before you drop a bombshell like that? I did NOT see that coming. I still see Trump as a squishy #2, if you get my drift. Sorry, that was low hanging fruit and I could not resist. |
| 2015-12-13 3:14 PM in reply to: jmk-brooklyn |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Trump Originally posted by jmk-brooklyn Originally posted by tuwood Whew, it's lucky I was sitting down. How about a little warning before you drop a bombshell like that? I did NOT see that coming. I'm officially putting Trump as a solid 1. :-D We need to get the Hilary thread going so you have somebody to gush over. In all seriousness, I recall your'e not a huge fan of the D candidates but were you leaning towards Sanders or Hillary? |
| 2015-12-13 3:22 PM in reply to: tuwood |
Champion 7821 Brooklyn, NY | Subject: RE: Trump Originally posted by tuwood Originally posted by jmk-brooklyn Originally posted by tuwood Whew, it's lucky I was sitting down. How about a little warning before you drop a bombshell like that? I did NOT see that coming. I'm officially putting Trump as a solid 1. :-D We need to get the Hilary thread going so you have somebody to gush over. In all seriousness, I recall your'e not a huge fan of the D candidates but were you leaning towards Sanders or Hillary? I generally prefer Sanders' policies over Clinton's but I see her as more electable in the general election. You won't hear me gush over her, though. |
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