Possible game changer... (Page 2)

2020-04-19 3:49 PM

in reply to: Rogillio

Pro

15655

Subject: RE: Possible game changer...

You better get with the program, Rog. If we end this it's going to come back in the Fall and millions will die.No way the Democrats want this to end. The game plan for them is get more people dependent on free money and then claim we can only have a mail in election. It's been a wonder to find out how far liberals would be willing to go to get rid of this President....we're about to find out.

2020-04-20 6:47 AM

in reply to: Left Brain

Extreme Veteran

5722

Subject: RE: Possible game changer...

now i understand.....it's because of the smart germ.....

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-...

2020-04-20 11:16 AM

in reply to: marcag

Pro

15655

Subject: RE: Possible game changer...

LMAO!! That's awesome!!!

marysia83

2020-04-20 1:18 PM

in reply to: marcag

1731

Denver, Colorado

Subject: RE: Possible game changer...

Originally posted by marcag

now i understand.....it's because of the smart germ.....

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-...

I feel like journalists are wasting time with articles analysing every single phrase of Trump. Especially every time they do it, his ratings go up.
Also, the journalists should take this time now with a lockdown to maybe improve their writing, as it feels like it would not pass my English 101 classes I took in College a while ago. In this article, for example, they keep on and on, and on how Trump confused virus with bacteria. This could be a short two paragraphs text, but instead it's a long read of the same thing. Sorry....

On the related topic, last Saturday I met with a friend who works in Loyola Hospital, she is a nurse on heart/lung transplant. She told us that what media is presenting is not how it looks like. She stopped watcing the news and following social media, because she would have to keep rolling her eyes until they fall out... She also said that all the death cases she knew were people with other sever conditions, who were expected to die soon anyway. Also, they do not do autopsies to confirm the cause of death. If someone died of heart failure or (in her unit) because they did not receive a transplant on time, but a person tested positive for COVID, they would note it as COVID death.

2020-04-20 3:02 PM

in reply to: marysia83

Extreme Veteran

5722

Subject: RE: Possible game changer...

Originally posted by marysia83
I met with a friend who works in Loyola Hospital, she is a nurse on heart/lung transplant. She told us that what media is presenting is not how it looks like. She stopped watcing the news and following social media, because she would have to keep rolling her eyes until they fall out...

My neighbour is a cardiologist. I chatted with him a little on how bad it was. He said last week was manageable, the previous week they were overflowing.

He is acting as a consultant to the ER doctors. He started explaining how COVID does something to the heart....he lost me after 5 minutes...let's just say patients have "problems"..."you know the problems".......

I asked him if we "over-reacted". He said he didn't know yet, but he did say "what is happening in Europe is real".

Belgium, France, Italy, Spain and now the UK.

Rogillio

2020-04-21 6:20 AM

in reply to: marcag

Champion

10157

Alabama

Subject: RE: Possible game changer...

“Based on their results, the Stanford researchers estimated the mortality rate in Santa Clara County to be between 0.12% and 0.2%. By comparison, the average death rate of the seasonal flu is 0.1%.“

Yeah, maybe we overreacted. Of course, the experts will never admit this.

2020-04-21 7:38 AM

in reply to: Rogillio

Extreme Veteran

5722

Subject: RE: Possible game changer...

Originally posted by Rogillio

“Based on their results, the Stanford researchers estimated the mortality rate in Santa Clara County to be between 0.12% and 0.2%. By comparison, the average death rate of the seasonal flu is 0.1%.“

Yeah, maybe we overreacted. Of course, the experts will never admit this.

Don't forget the mortality rate is only half the equation. R0 an Re is the measure of how many people will catch it. Read a bit on Re, it's fascinating (https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/when-will-it-be-over-an-introduction-to-viral-reproduction-numbers-r0-and-re/)

If 1000 people get it with a 0.1 flu rate that is 10 people. If 1000 people get it with a .2 mortality rate that's 20. If 2000 people get it with a .2 mortality rate that's 40.

At first we thought it had a much higher mortality rate. Now they believe it has a much higher infection rate. You can control Re by social distancing. Density of population is also a major factor.

I am torn on whether we over-reacted. Maybe the "one solution" fits all was not right. Maybe NYC needed it. My cottage up North not so much. We didn't and still do not know. We probably never will and it's not about media.

There is also big questions on why some places elsewhere in the world saw such bad results.

While we are looking at over-reaction we should compare how we've handled things like counter terrorism and pandemic preparation.

We should also look how our politicians could have prevented a lot of deaths and damage to the economy.

2020-04-21 7:58 AM

in reply to: marcag

Pro

15655

Subject: RE: Possible game changer...

Having spent my life working from the idea that the simplest answer is usually the right answer....I call BS on any idea that this has been anything short of a political and media fueled cluster fork. I'm astonished at how most people have reacted to the absolute garbage promoted each day by those two groups.

2020-04-21 9:05 AM

in reply to: Left Brain

Pro

15655

Subject: RE: Possible game changer...

Today's favorite headline comes from CNN:

"Do you have students stuck at home? Help them understand what’s going on in the world with CNN10’s daily newscast"

Yeah.....HELL NO!!!!

Rogillio

2020-04-22 8:32 AM

in reply to: Left Brain

Champion

10157

Alabama

Subject: RE: Possible game changer...

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evide...

This is what I’ve said before, correlation does not equal causation.

The doom and gloom reporting that they number is deaths will spike as we ease the lockdowns ignore they fact that the lockdowns were never meant to STOP coronavirus - they were meant to slow the hospitalizations so we didn’t overwhelm the health care systems. At some point everyone who is prone to getting the virus will get it. There will never be a cure. There might be treatments but science has never cured a virus. Ever. Not the flu, not polio, not chicken pox, MMR and not the common cold. They say a vaccine is 12-18 months out. By that time, herd immunity will end the spread.

I keep hearing people say that people breaking the lockdown are endangering others and will costs lives. If LB and I break the lockdown and go fishing together whose life are we endangering? Each other’s. But we are out there voluntarily! No one is forcing anyone to go to the beach! If you are scared, stayy’asz at home. If you are elderly and have health issues then continue to self isolate. No one is gonna demand you go to the movie theater or to Olive Garden.

Life is full of risks. We need to be allowed to determine what risks we feel are acceptable. We don’t need Big Brother to determine the risk level we should and should not accept.

2020-04-22 10:10 AM

in reply to: Rogillio

Extreme Veteran

5722

Subject: RE: Possible game changer...

Originally posted by Rogillio

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evide...

This is what I’ve said before, correlation does not equal causation.

The doom and gloom reporting that they number is deaths will spike as we ease the lockdowns ignore they fact that the lockdowns were never meant to STOP coronavirus - they were meant to slow the hospitalizations so we didn’t overwhelm the health care systems. At some point everyone who is prone to getting the virus will get it. There will never be a cure. There might be treatments but science has never cured a virus. Ever. Not the flu, not polio, not chicken pox, MMR and not the common cold. They say a vaccine is 12-18 months out. By that time, herd immunity will end the spread.

I keep hearing people say that people breaking the lockdown are endangering others and will costs lives. If LB and I break the lockdown and go fishing together whose life are we endangering? Each other’s. But we are out there voluntarily! No one is forcing anyone to go to the beach! If you are scared, stayy’asz at home. If you are elderly and have health issues then continue to self isolate. No one is gonna demand you go to the movie theater or to Olive Garden.

Life is full of risks. We need to be allowed to determine what risks we feel are acceptable. We don’t need Big Brother to determine the risk level we should and should not accept.

First the article you posted. I read it and when I got to the Europe section it didn't add up.

His analysis is just wrong !! I used the data he references

He says

"Again, there is very little evidence that Sweden has become an unlivable Covid-19 hotbed. As of 17 April, Sweden’s Covid-19 statistics were: 13,216 total cases, 1,400 total deaths, 1,309 cases per million and 139 deaths per million. In terms of cases per million residents, Sweden ranks slightly ahead of its close neighbours, Denmark (1,221) and Norway (1,274). But in Europe as a whole, Sweden ranks 23rd in terms of cases per million and 10th in terms of deaths per million."

On April 17th, per his data source Sweden had double the deaths/million of Norway or Denmark.

He compares "cases" which is not valid. It's well known Norway tested tons, as did Denmark. Their mortality rates are 2% and 4% while Sweden is 10%. This because of lack of testing.

Sweden didn't shut down but did follow strict social distancing. If he wants to compare Sweden to Norway he just made a case for shutdowns if you want to reduce mortality by half. I won't dive into the rest of his data, don't have time to look at bogus data.

BTW, things have got worst for Sweden since April 17th

What a shutdown has done is buy us time to understand the virus. They are starting to understand it and just starting to get good data. Maybe the shutdown did not help some areas, but you would have seen many NYC had you not shut down.

One thing I believe, with the data we have we should start opening up. Smartly.

I think we all agree you and LB can go fishing.

Rogillio

2020-04-22 11:58 AM

in reply to: Left Brain

Champion

10157

Alabama

Subject: RE: Possible game changer...

Heard on the news:

Talking Head 1

“How will Trump’s action on coronavirus effect the election?”

Talking Head 2
“People are going to look at their bank account and frankly, whether or not they are alive.”

Yes, I always check to see if I am alive before I decide how to vote. Then again, I’m a republican and we stop voting after we die.

2020-04-22 9:20 PM

in reply to: 0

Pro

15655

Subject: RE: Possible game changer...

Look.....if you don't want to go back to work when things open back up.....THEN DON'T!!! You won't hear a peep out of me.....it's your choice, I don't care if you do or you don't. BUT......YOU DON'T GET TO CHOOSE FOR ME!

How hard is this?

Edited by Left Brain 2020-04-22 9:21 PM

2020-04-22 9:36 PM

in reply to: 0

Pro

15655

Subject: RE: Possible game changer...

"I think we all agree you and LB can go fishing."

marcag - this is the problem. Down here, we have governors who say we can't. And, they are all on the Dem side....because it has all become political.

It's insanity.

I will not comply with Govt. regulations, with regard to freedom of movement, based in politics......EVER. I don't give a rats arse what the risk is.

Edited by Left Brain 2020-04-22 9:37 PM

2020-04-23 6:36 AM

in reply to: 0

Extreme Veteran

5722

Subject: RE: Possible game changer...

Originally posted by Left Brain
"I think we all agree you and LB can go fishing."

marcag - this is the problem. Down here, we have governors who say we can't. And, they are all on the Dem side....because it has all become political.

It's insanity.

I will not comply with Govt. regulations, with regard to freedom of movement, based in politics......EVER. I don't give a rats arse what the risk is.

You should move to Georgia so at least you could get a tattoo, or go bowling. Essential services......

We are seeing 0 politics in this whole affair. Provinces and federal governments are cooperating. People are very supportive of the actions and the politicians have been admitting and accepting their shortcomings to date. Very Canadian of us. Quebec admits screwing up on old folks homes. Ontario admits screwing up testing. A little humility is a nice thing to see.

I am currently 2km from the Quebec border on the Ontario side. I am not allowed to cross. My cottage is on the other side.

The idea of the cottage would be I would be completely isolated. Maybe I could catch something from a deer, but that's about it. But they won't let me cross.

I can drive all over Ontario, no problem. Not illegal although probably frowned upon. I could go fishing in Ontario I guess.

Seems stupid, but I get what they are trying to do. Limit moving parts until they get it under control. I get that and am willing to do my "little part" and "sacrifice" for a reasonable amount of time. It was -3deg yesterday so my tolerance is high :-)

Funny thing is my dog's vet is on the other side so theoretically I could go with her paperwork.

Patience, patience in a few days your state will be able to move to phase 1. The plan for re-opening actually sounds like a good start.

Maybe not in your neck of the woods, but this thing is way bigger than you think.

Edited by marcag 2020-04-23 6:37 AM

2020-04-23 8:46 AM

in reply to: marcag

Pro

15655

Subject: RE: Possible game changer...

Actually, it's not way bigger than I think....at least in terms of the virus and where it is. I have to sit through weekly briefings, and get daily sitrep reports. I've got to say, I will not be told by the govt what is best for my family in terms of our daily movement.

2020-04-23 7:23 PM

in reply to: Left Brain

Extreme Veteran

5722

Subject: RE: Possible game changer...

Originally posted by Left Brain
I will not be told by the govt what is best for my family in terms of our daily movement.

problem solved, you're going fishing !

2020-04-23 11:51 PM

in reply to: marcag

Pro

15655

Subject: RE: Possible game changer...

Exactly! If I'm not working, my family and I are outdoors.....freely moving about. We've really enjoyed the extra time together.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

2020-04-24 12:58 AM

in reply to: 0

Pro

15655

Subject: RE: Possible game changer...

Sadly, for my family, it's getting close to the time to move on. As I said, we have enjoyed the extra time together.

As more and more studies come in it's becoming plainly obvious that this disease is truly more flu-like than even I imagined. It appears that nearly 15% of the population in California and New York have been infected. That number will more than likely hold across the board. Most flu seasons see 12-20% of the population infected with up to 60,000 deaths, and higher in bad years. It's time to admit that the initial panic was unwarranted and move on with life.

Here are the latest flu numbers:

And lets face it....the flu kills the same vulnerable people that covid-19 kills.....although covid-19 spares the young, for the most part.

Time to re-open the country and get politics out of the equation.

Edited by Left Brain 2020-04-24 1:10 AM