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Possible game changer...
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 2020-04-17 5:14 PM |
Pro  15655    |  Subject: Possible game changer... If this number holds in further studies being done, then going back to work is a no brainer.....50-85 times the known cases? If true, it's a bad flu year. Edited by Left Brain 2020-04-17 5:16 PM |
| 2020-04-17 5:17 PM in reply to: Left Brain |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... |
| 2020-04-17 5:52 PM in reply to: Left Brain |
Extreme Veteran 5722 | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... Originally posted by Left Brain If this number holds in further studies being done, then going back to work is a no brainer.....50-85 times the known cases? If true, it's a bad flu year. "prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49 percent to 4.16 percent." Not that surprising. So let's say somewhere around 3%. Without a lockdown it would be what ? 10%, 20%...50% ? |
| 2020-04-17 6:50 PM in reply to: 0 |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... You're guessing again. I just want to use known numbers. I have been out in the public for the last 2 weeks.....8-12 hours a day. There is plenty of room for the virus to spread, believe it.....numbers remain linear, not exponential....and now leveling/dropping. I have not seen anything close to what was seen in New York, for instance. Our medical personnel have not either. And.....I have not a single care who gets infected...I care how many die from the infection. If we go to 50-85 times as many infections as currently being counted.....it's a bad flu.....period. The death rate just doesn't hold up past flu rates if those numbers hold. And we already know that nobody cares about flu deaths. Edited by Left Brain 2020-04-17 6:54 PM |
| 2020-04-18 5:41 AM in reply to: Left Brain |
Extreme Veteran 5722 | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... Originally posted by Left Brain You're guessing again. I just want to use known numbers. The only known numbers is 37,000 people died in 1 month in a country under full lockdown. Fox can put a big title up that says cases are actually 85x more. It's a sensational way to put up numbers to people that can't put the numbers in context. Reality : let those people out and it would be 2, 3, 10x worse than 37,000 people in 1 month. Keep on comparing it to the flu if you want. |
| 2020-04-18 6:38 AM in reply to: 0 |
Champion 10154 Alabama | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... Originally posted by marcag Originally posted by Left Brain You're guessing again. I just want to use known numbers. The only known numbers is 37,000 people died in 1 month in a country under full lockdown. Fox can put a big title up that says cases are actually 85x more. It's a sensational way to put up numbers to people that can't put the numbers in context. Reality : let those people out and it would be 2, 3, 10x worse than 37,000 people in 1 month. Keep on comparing it to the flu if you want. 37k is not known either. They recently changed reporting to include those “presumed” to have died from coronavirus when they died of say pneumonia or heart attack. The article was not written by Fox. Same article appears on Yahoo News, Gateway news, Drudge and RCP. There was a second study with fewer people that showed 3.8% had the antibodies indicating they had previously been infected. It is not disputed that a large percentage of people who have covid19 are asymptomatic so it stands to reason that a great many people had the virus, recovered and never even knew it. I am starting to read antidotal cases where people now, in retrospect think their family had it in Dec or Jan. I IF the study and other studies show similar results then it proves we panicked and overreacted as LB pointed out, the lethality will be shown to be comparable to the seasonal flu. Time will tell. Here’s a moral question. How many lives would need to be spared to justify shutting down the country? 1,000? 1,000,000? Before you answer consider how many lives could be saved by doing this every year? And I’m not talking about just the virus. How many fewer traffic fatalities would be avoided? 10,000? “ More than 38,000 people die every year in crashes on U.S. roadways. The U.S. traffic fatality rate is 12.4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. An additional 4.4 million are injured seriously enough to require medical attention.” Edited by Rogillio 2020-04-18 6:51 AM |
| 2020-04-18 8:58 AM in reply to: Rogillio |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... Well, if we all just stay inside in a bubble we won't die from all kinds of things....and we can pretend we're living. |
| 2020-04-18 9:01 AM in reply to: Left Brain |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... Next week I'll post up a picture or two of "full lockdown". LOL |
| 2020-04-18 9:29 AM in reply to: Rogillio |
Extreme Veteran 5722 | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... Originally posted by Rogillio 37k is not known either. They recently changed reporting to include those “presumed” to have died from coronavirus when they died of say pneumonia or heart attack. ahhh yes. Fake numbers Your president was asked why the US had such bad numbers compared to other countries. He said other countries under-reported. But the US is over-reporting. Makes sense. |
| 2020-04-18 10:30 AM in reply to: marcag |
Champion 10154 Alabama | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... Originally posted by marcag Originally posted by Rogillio 37k is not known either. They recently changed reporting to include those “presumed” to have died from coronavirus when they died of say pneumonia or heart attack. ahhh yes. Fake numbers Your president was asked why the US had such bad numbers compared to other countries. He said other countries under-reported. But the US is over-reporting. Makes sense. “Nearly a third of 200 blood samples taken in Chelsea show exposure to coronavirus”. - Boston Globe Maybe those are fake numbers too? 200 random people showing no signs of being sick and 1/3 of them showed exposure. Like I said, time will tell. |
| 2020-04-18 12:29 PM in reply to: Rogillio |
Extreme Veteran 5722 | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... Originally posted by Rogillio “Nearly a third of 200 blood samples taken in Chelsea show exposure to coronavirus”. - Boston Globe Maybe those are fake numbers too? 200 random people showing no signs of being sick and 1/3 of them showed exposure. Like I said, time will tell. Not that surprising numbers. Chelsea is one of the hardest hit areas of the country. One of the worst in NYC. Other studies in other countries are showing 50% of people are without symptoms. But with much smaller infection rates than 1/3. I wouldn't be surprised to see 33% of people in Lombardia Italy with anti-bodies. I'd be surprised to see more than 2 or 3% in a place like Vancouver. I'd be surprised to see 1% in Wyoming. But I am just guessing with the bit and pieces of data we are starting to get. |
| 2020-04-18 4:36 PM in reply to: marcag |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... |
| 2020-04-18 6:00 PM in reply to: Left Brain |
Extreme Veteran 5722 | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... Originally posted by Left Brain https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1 Here's another curious about something. So when your president says "this would have killed over a million people if we didn't do what we did", do you believe him ? |
| 2020-04-18 7:26 PM in reply to: 0 |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... Hell no dude......this is election season down here....you're an idiot (collective you) if you believe a single thing any of them say. That's why this was such bad timing. The entire response is being driven mostly by politics. It sucks. Watch and see....before this is over the Dems who are shouting that the President didn't act quickly enough will be hollering that he intentionally created a panic. It's madness. Edited by Left Brain 2020-04-18 7:28 PM |
| 2020-04-19 7:13 AM in reply to: Left Brain |
Extreme Veteran 5722 | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... Would you guys be willing to turn on your phones to use for contact tracing ? If so, do you think a majority of people would ? Here, I'd say more than 80% would. I suspect you guys will have more than push back as a violation of privacy. |
| 2020-04-19 8:44 AM in reply to: marcag |
Champion 7547 Albuquerque, New Mexico Bronze member | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... Originally posted by marcag Would you guys be willing to turn on your phones to use for contact tracing ? If so, do you think a majority of people would ? Here, I'd say more than 80% would. I suspect you guys will have more than push back as a violation of privacy. why do you think turning location tracking on or off makes a difference beyond the placebo it is? “Off” isn’t really OFF. |
| 2020-04-19 9:19 AM in reply to: marcag |
Champion 10154 Alabama | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... Originally posted by marcag Would you guys be willing to turn on your phones to use for contact tracing ? If so, do you think a majority of people would ? Here, I'd say more than 80% would. I suspect you guys will have more than push back as a violation of privacy. What makes you think you can turn this off? Your phone automatically connects (registers) to the nearest cell tower. So if your phone is on, you are tracked. Ever see an ap that tells you where there is a traffic backup? The ap knows because of number of cell phones that are on a particular road. Frankly I don’t care who knows I went to Lowe’s or to KFC. |
| 2020-04-19 10:36 AM in reply to: Rogillio |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... Nah, I'm not giving the govt. anything they don't already have.....and I already know what they have.
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| 2020-04-19 10:52 AM in reply to: McFuzz |
Extreme Veteran 5722 | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... Originally posted by McFuzz Originally posted by marcag Would you guys be willing to turn on your phones to use for contact tracing ? If so, do you think a majority of people would ? Here, I'd say more than 80% would. I suspect you guys will have more than push back as a violation of privacy. why do you think turning location tracking on or off makes a difference beyond the placebo it is? “Off” isn’t really OFF. Cell tower gives them some precision GPS over a data connection gives them more They can go one step further with Bluetooth to bluetooth connections. This is the approach Google and Apple are working on. And for this to work, you would need to tell the app if you are feeling symptoms or are sick. They would need to push back notification if you were close to someone infected. They are not going to push that to you if you don't opt in. So they can't do this without you knowing. Today Google is publishing maps of people's movements with intelligence "are people staying at home", "going to parks". https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ To do contact tracing as efficeintly as possible they need to go one step further. |
| 2020-04-19 10:55 AM in reply to: marcag |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... Originally posted by marcag Originally posted by McFuzz Cell tower gives them some precision GPS over a data connection gives them more They can go one step further with Bluetooth to bluetooth connections. This is the approach Google and Apple are working on. And for this to work, you would need to tell the app if you are feeling symptoms or are sick. They would need to push back notification if you were close to someone infected. They are not going to push that to you if you don't opt in. So they can't do this without you knowing. Today Google is publishing maps of people's movements with intelligence "are people staying at home", "going to parks". https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/To do contact tracing as efficeintly as possible they need to go one step further. Originally posted by marcag Would you guys be willing to turn on your phones to use for contact tracing ? If so, do you think a majority of people would ? Here, I'd say more than 80% would. I suspect you guys will have more than push back as a violation of privacy. why do you think turning location tracking on or off makes a difference beyond the placebo it is? “Off” isn’t really OFF. Yeah, no way. |
| 2020-04-19 11:53 AM in reply to: marcag |
Champion 10154 Alabama | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... Originally posted by marcag Originally posted by McFuzz Originally posted by marcag Would you guys be willing to turn on your phones to use for contact tracing ? If so, do you think a majority of people would ? Here, I'd say more than 80% would. I suspect you guys will have more than push back as a violation of privacy. why do you think turning location tracking on or off makes a difference beyond the placebo it is? “Off” isn’t really OFF. Cell tower gives them some precision GPS over a data connection gives them more They can go one step further with Bluetooth to bluetooth connections. This is the approach Google and Apple are working on. And for this to work, you would need to tell the app if you are feeling symptoms or are sick. They would need to push back notification if you were close to someone infected. They are not going to push that to you if you don't opt in. So they can't do this without you knowing. Today Google is publishing maps of people's movements with intelligence "are people staying at home", "going to parks". https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ To do contact tracing as efficeintly as possible they need to go one step further. So one would have to self diagnose and then give that info to the gubment so they could restrict/monitor you? LOL. This is ridiculous. So I wake up with a hangover and think I have coronavirus I could tell the gubment I THINK I have covid-19? I think you’d end up with more bad data than good. This thing is on life support in the ICU. I went to Lowe’s yesterday and it was packed! I passed the flea market and the parking lot was full. The numbers are just not living up to the hype and panic. We were never going to stop it. It has to run its course. |
| 2020-04-19 12:42 PM in reply to: Rogillio |
Extreme Veteran 5722 | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... Originally posted by Rogillio Originally posted by marcag Originally posted by McFuzz Originally posted by marcag Would you guys be willing to turn on your phones to use for contact tracing ? If so, do you think a majority of people would ? Here, I'd say more than 80% would. I suspect you guys will have more than push back as a violation of privacy. why do you think turning location tracking on or off makes a difference beyond the placebo it is? “Off” isn’t really OFF. Cell tower gives them some precision GPS over a data connection gives them more They can go one step further with Bluetooth to bluetooth connections. This is the approach Google and Apple are working on. And for this to work, you would need to tell the app if you are feeling symptoms or are sick. They would need to push back notification if you were close to someone infected. They are not going to push that to you if you don't opt in. So they can't do this without you knowing. Today Google is publishing maps of people's movements with intelligence "are people staying at home", "going to parks". https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ To do contact tracing as efficeintly as possible they need to go one step further. So one would have to self diagnose and then give that info to the gubment so they could restrict/monitor you? LOL. This is ridiculous. So I wake up with a hangover and think I have coronavirus I could tell the gubment I THINK I have covid-19? I think you’d end up with more bad data than good. This thing is on life support in the ICU. I went to Lowe’s yesterday and it was packed! I passed the flea market and the parking lot was full. The numbers are just not living up to the hype and panic. We were never going to stop it. It has to run its course. I don' think self diagnosis is the solution :-) More like you get tested, (since there is an abundance of testing....ya right)....and if you are positive it can identify anyone you were in contact with. They have identified they do not have the resources to do contact tracing. Wether we end up finding this was a big deal or not, it did show one thing : we were not ready to handle a true epidemic. Contact tracing infrastructure is part of it and it doesn't exist. |
| 2020-04-19 1:26 PM in reply to: marcag |
Champion 10154 Alabama | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... Originally posted by marcag Originally posted by Rogillio Originally posted by marcag Originally posted by McFuzz Originally posted by marcag Would you guys be willing to turn on your phones to use for contact tracing ? If so, do you think a majority of people would ? Here, I'd say more than 80% would. I suspect you guys will have more than push back as a violation of privacy. why do you think turning location tracking on or off makes a difference beyond the placebo it is? “Off” isn’t really OFF. Cell tower gives them some precision GPS over a data connection gives them more They can go one step further with Bluetooth to bluetooth connections. This is the approach Google and Apple are working on. And for this to work, you would need to tell the app if you are feeling symptoms or are sick. They would need to push back notification if you were close to someone infected. They are not going to push that to you if you don't opt in. So they can't do this without you knowing. Today Google is publishing maps of people's movements with intelligence "are people staying at home", "going to parks". https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ To do contact tracing as efficeintly as possible they need to go one step further. So one would have to self diagnose and then give that info to the gubment so they could restrict/monitor you? LOL. This is ridiculous. So I wake up with a hangover and think I have coronavirus I could tell the gubment I THINK I have covid-19? I think you’d end up with more bad data than good. This thing is on life support in the ICU. I went to Lowe’s yesterday and it was packed! I passed the flea market and the parking lot was full. The numbers are just not living up to the hype and panic. We were never going to stop it. It has to run its course. I don' think self diagnosis is the solution :-) More like you get tested, (since there is an abundance of testing....ya right)....and if you are positive it can identify anyone you were in contact with. They have identified they do not have the resources to do contact tracing. Wether we end up finding this was a big deal or not, it did show one thing : we were not ready to handle a true epidemic. Contact tracing infrastructure is part of it and it doesn't exist. Think about this. Say I test positive. It’s been shown that you can be contagious and now have any symptoms. So how long have I had it? How long have I been contagious? How many people have I had contact with I’m the last 3 weeks? Say in 3 weeks I have had contact with 100 people - at Lowe’s, Publix, the convenience store, O’Reilly auto parts, TSC, Harvest Feed Store, they people I bought Jeep from, friends who have come over to get eggs, etc. And let’s say each of those 100 had contact with 100. That’s 10000. And each of them 100.....you get the idea. When 30% of random people show signs they have been exposed and didn’t know it, to me it means this things is almost over. We have nothing to fear except fear except. You can quote me on this. :-) |
| 2020-04-19 1:42 PM in reply to: 0 |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... Oh yeah, wait until the nutjob vigilante sees that you are positive on your phone with his handy dandy tracker and you aren't wearing a mask. What could possibly go wrong with giving personal medical information to everyone? LMAO From my view, it's a ridiculously stupid idea. I get the premise.....there is no way I'm for giving more freedom away.....EVER. Some of the crap we're doing now will end up permanent.....to what end? Not being one of the .0 somehting percent who will end up dying? Again, ridiculously stupid. Edited by Left Brain 2020-04-19 1:50 PM |
| 2020-04-19 2:19 PM in reply to: Left Brain |
Champion 10154 Alabama | Subject: RE: Possible game changer... The end is coming. The more I read the more convinced the end is near. Numbers are coming down, summer is coming, places beginning to open up and people all over the country have had enough and holding protest rallies. We’d of been far better off isolating the vulnerable than s sad shutting down the country. Every day that passes and number of new cases and deaths drops make people more and more bold. In a packed Lowe’s yesterday I took note of the number of people wearing masks. I’d say maybe 20-25%. That means 75% of the people said, “F’it, ill take my chances.” If things start to open up and the numbers still continue to drop the rebound with grow exponentially and soon people wearing masks will be assumed to either be sick or are paranoid hypochondriacs. One thing that is confusing is the absence of data/reporting on the annual flu deaths? Are there no flu deaths this year? Is everyone who died of upper respiratory illness and pneumonia assumed to have died of COVID-19? How many of those who died would have died from seasonal flu anyway? Statistically speaking. |
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