I'm calling the election: Romney will win (Page 3)

but did you watch their debate?

Just as long as you agree he is not for unaffordable health care.

... but actually, you voted for Obama that did oppose gay marriage... and then later he changed his mind. Just sayin'. He was against it when he needed to be. He can pander just like the est of them.

Certainly. And obviously I do not have a problem with people voting how they believe on social issues. I just think in the bigger picture, social issues do plenty to fire up the base an get people arguing, but in reality they do very little to get any political action moving.

RvW has not changed for 30 years, and it will not change for another 30. Look at gay rights... this has been a very sloooow process. Heck, I live in the hate state, Colorado. That name was given to us for voting for an a amendment to deny gay's "special treatment" . (overturned) But that was 15 years ago. Even DADT.... most did not have a problem with reversing it, even with all the patriotism for those going to war, but look how long it took to change it. Even the JCOS didn't really have a problem with it. So even though that issue may be important and you want to vote for a candidate that is "pro gay" for a whole host of reasons... even they do not do much of anything to change things.

1.  Please tell me how Romney is "against a woman's to have affordable healthcare"?  Does he have a secret bill that will make women pay 10x more than men?

2.  Did you support Obama in 2008?  Because he was against gay marriage then.  And wow how he's done so much to champion it since that change of tune...

So I'll ask again.  Did you vote for Obama in 2008?

I know we have our differences in whom we are supporting for President, but same sex marriages is the most important thing thing to you in this election? Am I reading that right?

I would suggest looking a little more closely at the state polls. 

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/oct-30-what-state-polls-suggest-about-the-national-popular-vote/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/

Nate Silver's 538 blog and Real Clear Politics both have an extensive list of all of the recent state polls.  There are numerous different polling organizations (all with slightly different methodologies and biases).

For example, you list Romney with 1% lead in CO.  There was a poll out yesterday that gave Romney a 1 point lead, but there is one out today that gives Obama a 1 point lead.  Of the 5 most recent polls in CO, Obama led in 4 out of 5.

You list Romney with a 3% lead in VA, but there are two polls out today.  One has Romney with a 5 point lead, but the other has Obama with a 2 point lead.  Of the 7 VA polls over the last week, Romney led in 2, Obama led in 3, and 2 were ties.

I would put both CO and VA in the toss up category, but if forced to predict a winner, I will lean towards Obama in these two states.  The state polls show Obama with a consistent, although narrow, lead in WI, MI, IA, NH, and most critically Ohio.  Romney has had a pretty consistent advantage in NC and FL.

If you add up the electoral votes, it favors Obama.  Pretty much every group that has looked at the possible electoral count on a state by state basis has Obama with the lead.

For Romney to win the electoral college, he needs to hold Florida (one of the FL polls out today has Obama with a 1 point lead in FL), and he then has to either win OH (all the polls say Obama has the lead) or he has to sweep all of the other battle ground states.

I think Romney has a much better chance of winning the popular vote than he does of winning the electoral college.

FWIW, I too am voting for Johnson.  If Obama loses CO by 1 vote, and the loss of CO's electoral votes cost him the election, my wife is going to kill me.

Abortions do not result in happiness or healthfulness -- especially for the baby.

Yes every poll lists different #s.  I grabbed the AP polls I had at hand.  Either way all of the polls I quoted have them within the margin of error.  Which means it's really a toss up.  And when it's a toss up I'm giving the edge to Romney because of the reasons I listed in my post.

Good job voting for Johnson!

makes me wonder how badly can you lose the popular vote and still win.

Just shut that whole thing down.

Certainly possible. We'll see.

Would be an interesting experiment, but take a long time.  If candidate A squeeks by with 51% popular in just 271 electoral college states, then gets 0% in all the others...  Or, if we had a true multi-party system where you could get a plurality in 271 votes, maybe even 34% of the vote, and 0% everywhere else.

Although, if we still had state militias, that's a recipe for civil war

You say that like it's a bad thing...

A discussion at lunch brought forth another point why a vote for Johnson is not a waste:

If the Libertarians receive over five percent of the popular vote, they will be entitled to matching federal funds (about $90 million) from the Federal Government, passing the threshold under the Federal Election Campaign Act.

This is go a long way to help them next election cycle.