I'm calling the election: Romney will win (Page 5)

tuwoods electoral college prediction

R/R 308 O/B 230 (aka blowout)

Please tell me you're willing to place a wager on that projection.  Romney 308?  I'll take the under...and I'll give you 5 to 1 odds.  

You've got Obama winning South Dakota?  You seem to have picked Romney in all the states he is leading in the polls...and Romney in all of the states President Obama is leading by up to 5 points.  We shall see...ya never know!

oh haha, that's funny.  I think RCP has a bug in their system.  I saved my electoral map the other day and most definitely had SD red, but when I restore it it keeps making SD blue.  Must be a conspiracy.

tuwoods updated electoral college prediction

R/R 321 O/B 217

Dude....Obama couldn't carry Missouri in the LAST election....let the landslide roll!

I'm not confident enough to wager on it, but I do think it's a real possibility.

Romney is in the margin of error in almost every swing state I switched Red with 2008 D turnout models.  The early numbers do not support that model so I figure he has at least 3-5 points over what the polls are showing in those states.  I could be wrong, but that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

I think it would be fun to see everyone's electoral college predictions and see whose closest next Wednesday.  Perhaps another thread is in order.

Dam, stupid RCP it keeps changing my states.  MO is most definitely red.  Updated the last one.  I give up.

OK, Romney wins  >300 

I just did my map and I'm going 271 - 267 Obama.

171K today. That will help him IMO.

If this alone sways your vote you do not need to be voting...

You guys should really investigate the poll aggregators more.  Those outfits that take all of the individual state polls, aggregate them, and then use them to predict electoral college numbers have been very accurate over the last several elections.  It could be that ALL of them are wrong, but that is not likely.

The most accurate aggregator over the last several elections has been Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium.  http://election.princeton.edu/perverse-media-incentives-cillizza-2nov2012.php.  His prediction is Obama with 318 electoral votes.  The 538 Blog has Obama with 303 EVs, and RCP has Obama with 290 EVs.

NV, MI, WI, and PA don't really appear to me to be that close.  All favor Obama.  IA and OH are closer but still favor Obama.  Add those states to those that clearly favor Obama, and he is over 270.  I think CO also goes Obama, but it is pretty close, and VA is a real toss up.  NC and FL lean Romney, but are by no means solid

It is possible that Romney will still win, but it is unlikely.  A Romney electoral landslide approaches fantasy.

BTW, I am just looking at the data.  I am voting Johnson.

I don't have a lot of faith in the average voter. For anyone who is still undecided somehow, this could sway them. The number is meaningless, but that is a whole new thread.

My point exactly...

You're calling it for Obama? Take the shotgun out of your mouth and step away from the window...

Ditto, Obama's campaign has been in full on "we're behind" mode for a few weeks now which completely contradicts the polls that are out there.  Romney's been kicking back as if he's riding a strong lead.

I have seen the claims that the polling data is flawed, but I have yet to see it come from an unbaised source.

There is no doubt that each polling organization has its own quirks and biases.  For example, if a state has multiple polls at the same time, Rasmussen always has higher numbers for Romney and Quinnipiac generally has higher numbers for Obama.

The polls may all be biased, but the don't all have the same biases and I think it is likely that the biases cancel each other out.  Besides, I hear this claim that the polls are wrong every election, but the aggregated state polls have been quite accurate over the last several elections.

As for actions, I would guess that both of the campaigns have purchased as much air time as they can in states like CO.  There will be at least one Obama ad and at least one Romney ad in EVERY commercial break in CO.  I think the campaigns each have enough money that they have saturated the toss up states and they are spreading the money around to other states as well.  I hear that both campaigns are spending money in FL as well.  If Romney doesn't hold FL, it will be a landslide.

Historically polls always favor incumbants.  I'd guess the two campaigns probably have a better handle on the real numbers than the polls do

Once again, I have to disagree.  I ignore the national polls, but I have looked closely at the state polls in the battleground states.  I think that there are a couple of pollsters than probably do over sample democrats a bit, but there are a couple that under sample dems as well.  I see no evidence that the polls in the aggregate are off, and it is the aggregate polling data that I base my conclusions on.

I am not excited by the idea of 4 more years of Obama.  I won't be voting for him.   But I do think he will comfortably win the electoral college, probably with either 290 EVs or 303 EVs, depending on which way VA goes.

You can't compare a pres candidate appearance to a VP candidate.  Yesterday, Obama spoke to 10,000 in Colorado, Ryan spoke to 600 in Reno.  The big name always draws the bigger crowds.