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2016-11-07 11:46 AM
in reply to: Scott71

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Subject: RE: Election 2016
Originally posted by Scott71

Originally posted by ejshowers Market up bigly today expecting a Clinton victory. Dow up 306 and S&P up 40 right now. Betting markets also moved in her favor after the latest FBI letter.

After Trump's surge in the polls last week I considered parking my investments into a high interest savings account until after the election.  

Did anyone play it safe and get out of the markets?

I do think Clinton will win and the markets will rebound on Wednesday, but I have read predictions of an estimated 10% overall decline if Trump wins, 3% of which has already occurred over the past few weeks and a further 5-7% drop shortly after election day.




I did. I pulled 90% out of the market right at a month ago. I was up 8.6% for the year and one of two things was gonna happen - 1. Hillary would win and the market remain relatively flat or 2. Trump would win and the markets would tank. Made no sense to risk losing the 8.6% I'd made chasing maybe another 1/2 a point. Until today it was a brilliant move as I avoided huge losses. Markets up about 2% but the were down 3% from a month ago...and the day is not over.

I'm guessing there will be a sell off near the end of the day with people wondering if Trump can pull off an upset.

It's 4th and goal with Trump down by 4 and 2 seconds left on the clock.......


2016-11-07 12:05 PM
in reply to: jmhpsu93

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Champion
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Alabama
Subject: RE: Election 2016
Originally posted by jmhpsu93

Originally posted by Scott71

Originally posted by ejshowers Market up bigly today expecting a Clinton victory. Dow up 306 and S&P up 40 right now. Betting markets also moved in her favor after the latest FBI letter.

After Trump's surge in the polls last week I considered parking my investments into a high interest savings account until after the election.  

Did anyone play it safe and get out of the markets?

I do think Clinton will win and the markets will rebound on Wednesday, but I have read predictions of an estimated 10% overall decline if Trump wins, 3% of which has already occurred over the past few weeks and a further 5-7% drop shortly after election day.

What's that?  Like 1 1/2%?  

I find it dangerous to try to time the markets, especially with something like a 401K, so we're just riding out whatever chitstorm hits.





Sept 2008 the market started tanking....I lost a lot of money....it looked like BO was gonna win and I pulled the plug and bailed. The markets continued to nose dive and I avoided tremendous losses. But I was late getting back in on the recovery and missed a lot of it. A buddy of mine has about the same amount in his 401k as I had in mine. He rode all the way down and all the way back up. About a year after the crash we compared balances an were about equal.

So, your advice is sound if you are in for the long haul and have time to recover. I plan to retire in about year or 2 and so want to avoid a crash. If the market goes down 10% I will start buying back in and hopefully ride it back up. But always dangerous buying into a falling market.
2016-11-07 12:15 PM
in reply to: Scott71

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by Scott71

Originally posted by ejshowers Market up bigly today expecting a Clinton victory. Dow up 306 and S&P up 40 right now. Betting markets also moved in her favor after the latest FBI letter.

After Trump's surge in the polls last week I considered parking my investments into a high interest savings account until after the election.  

Did anyone play it safe and get out of the markets?

I do think Clinton will win and the markets will rebound on Wednesday, but I have read predictions of an estimated 10% overall decline if Trump wins, 3% of which has already occurred over the past few weeks and a further 5-7% drop shortly after election day.

I got completely out of the market a month ago.  I have ridden every storm for 30 years.......and the last 8 years I made a lot of money in the stock market.  Two things led me to get out right now.  First, I'm going to retire in 2-3 years so I'm not willing to ride the down times as much as I have been. Second, and it's related to the first, I think the market is overvalued and there will be a correction no matter who gets elected.  I think with Trump you will see a big drop on panic selling, and if Clinton gets elected I think we'll see a loss as her problems mount.

I'm not opposed to going "all back in", and I will.....I've got a number in my head I was to see it drop to.....then I'll be back in.  If it doesn't go there, I'm happy with where I am.

2016-11-07 12:16 PM
in reply to: 0

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Expert
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Middle River, Maryland
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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by Rogillio
Originally posted by jmhpsu93

Originally posted by Scott71

Originally posted by ejshowers Market up bigly today expecting a Clinton victory. Dow up 306 and S&P up 40 right now. Betting markets also moved in her favor after the latest FBI letter.

After Trump's surge in the polls last week I considered parking my investments into a high interest savings account until after the election.  

Did anyone play it safe and get out of the markets?

I do think Clinton will win and the markets will rebound on Wednesday, but I have read predictions of an estimated 10% overall decline if Trump wins, 3% of which has already occurred over the past few weeks and a further 5-7% drop shortly after election day.

What's that?  Like 1 1/2%?  

I find it dangerous to try to time the markets, especially with something like a 401K, so we're just riding out whatever chitstorm hits.

Sept 2008 the market started tanking....I lost a lot of money....it looked like BO was gonna win and I pulled the plug and bailed. The markets continued to nose dive and I avoided tremendous losses. But I was late getting back in on the recovery and missed a lot of it. A buddy of mine has about the same amount in his 401k as I had in mine. He rode all the way down and all the way back up. About a year after the crash we compared balances an were about equal. So, your advice is sound if you are in for the long haul and have time to recover. I plan to retire in about year or 2 and so want to avoid a crash. If the market goes down 10% I will start buying back in and hopefully ride it back up. But always dangerous buying into a falling market.

Yeah, we're in our 40s, so there's time if this goes to hell in a handbasket.  I 100% see your reasoning. for getting out.



Edited by jmhpsu93 2016-11-07 12:18 PM
2016-11-07 12:33 PM
in reply to: jmhpsu93

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

I just looked at the market today.  #boom.  

I guess they're excited about a Trump victory.  hehe  (kidding

2016-11-07 4:08 PM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

I can't speak for this polling outfit, but it just popped for PA as the latest.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMiteE9pZkcwQnZ3TVk/view


Trump 48.43%
Clinton 46.51%

28% black vote?  yuuge

No question if Hillary loses PA then it's over for her. 



2016-11-07 4:22 PM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Same polling outfit for Michigan:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitN1JxcDRvQkdudkE/view

Trump 48.43%
Clinton 46.51%

28% Black vote there as well.

I guess we now know why Hillary and Obama are campaigning hard in those two states.  

2016-11-07 4:28 PM
in reply to: tuwood

Master
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Subject: RE: Election 2016
2016-11-07 4:31 PM
in reply to: 0

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by spudone

You have a knack for finding polls to suit you.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6008.html

 

lol, both of those polls were just release 30 minutes ago.  It's not about finding polls that suit me, it's sharing what the latest polls are.  I did see that RCP has included these guys in their averages before so they "seem" legit.  

**edit** sorry they were released a couple hours ago.   



Edited by tuwood 2016-11-07 4:32 PM
2016-11-07 5:10 PM
in reply to: tuwood

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Champion
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Alabama
Subject: RE: Election 2016
Be careful under estimating the Don.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XbygriZT1Xw


This cracked me up.
2016-11-07 8:19 PM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

I'm only adding this because we have talked a ton about the various Trump "assault victims".  This was the big knock out blow against Trump that was scheduled to drop last Thursday with a press conference, but it was canceled at the last minute.  Anyways, after month of claiming that Trump raped her when she was 13 she is now confessing that she made the whole thing up.  There were several reports that also came up last week that she was paid $500,000 for coming forward, but her attorney denied it.

Troubled woman with a history of drug use who claimed that she was assaulted by Donald Trump at a Jeffrey Epstein sex party at age 13 MADE IT ALL UP

 



2016-11-07 8:49 PM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Election 2016
All you have to do is read enough social media to figure out we deserve all of this stupidity.
2016-11-07 8:50 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by Left Brain All you have to do is read enough social media to figure out we deserve all of this stupidity.

I could give a whole sermon on where we are as a nation and why.   

2016-11-07 10:59 PM
in reply to: 0

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Subject: RE: Election 2016
Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by Left Brain All you have to do is read enough social media to figure out we deserve all of this stupidity.

I could give a whole sermon on where we are as a nation and why.   

Just skip to the ending where we all tweet and Facebook a bunch of stupid chit and half the people think it's real, while the other half get their news from standard venues who depend on twitter and other social mefia bullchit to get their stories. All we've done is ensure we get candidates like Clinton and Trump to run our country. I'm going fishing tomorrow.

Edited by Left Brain 2016-11-07 11:01 PM
2016-11-07 11:11 PM
in reply to: 0

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Champion
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Chicago, Illinois
Subject: RE: Election 2016
Originally posted by Left Brain

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by Left Brain All you have to do is read enough social media to figure out we deserve all of this stupidity.

I could give a whole sermon on where we are as a nation and why.   

Just skip to the ending where we all tweet and Facebook a bunch of stupid chit and half the people think it's real, while the other half get their news from standard venues who depend on twitter and other social mefia bullchit to get their stories. All we've done is ensure we get candidates like Clinton and Trump to run our country. I'm going fishing tomorrow.


Heck many people get their news from article headlines that people share and do not even read it.

Edited by chirunner134 2016-11-07 11:19 PM
2016-11-08 7:06 AM
in reply to: 0

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Champion
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Alabama
Subject: RE: Election 2016
My polling place happens to be at our church...in the gym not the sanctuary. Most elections there are 2 dozen cars at 0700 when the doors open. Today the parking lot is full! Must be 200 cars here. I've never seen it like this.

I'm in Alabama so Trump will roll over Hillary like a crimson tide. One or two counties will be blue the rest will be solid red.

Roll Tide

Edited by Rogillio 2016-11-08 7:08 AM


2016-11-08 7:26 AM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by Rogillio My polling place happens to be at our church...in the gym not the sanctuary. Most elections there are 2 dozen cars at 0700 when the doors open. Today the parking lot is full! Must be 200 cars here. I've never seen it like this. I'm in Alabama so Trump will roll over Hillary like a crimson tide. One or two counties will be blue the rest will be solid red. Roll Tide

i'm sitting t my polling place now and it doesn't open for another 40 minutes.

i saw another poll last night where Oregon was within 4 points (margin of error).  How's that happen?

2016-11-08 7:55 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Extreme Veteran
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Maryland
Subject: RE: Election 2016

I just won the election. We are winners. I voted so bigly for Hillary. Its going to be great. I do the best votes and people are giving me a lot of credit for them. A. LOT. OF. CREDIT.

2016-11-08 8:11 AM
in reply to: dmiller5

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Longest line in the 38 years I've been voting.  Trump will romp in Missouri.

2016-11-08 9:06 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Master
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Minnetonka, Minnesota
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Subject: RE: Election 2016
Just voted here in MN. No line and in and out in 5 minutes as usual.
2016-11-08 9:12 AM
in reply to: dmiller5

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by dmiller5

I just won the election. We are winners. I voted so bigly for Hillary. Its going to be great. I do the best votes and people are giving me a lot of credit for them. A. LOT. OF. CREDIT.

Dang, I was hoping Maryland would go Red this year... grrr 



2016-11-08 9:19 AM
in reply to: ejshowers

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by ejshowers Just voted here in MN. No line and in and out in 5 minutes as usual.

So what your saying is Trump is right about her lack of enthusiasm ;-

2016-11-08 9:37 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Champion
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Alabama
Subject: RE: Election 2016
Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by ejshowers Just voted here in MN. No line and in and out in 5 minutes as usual.

So what your saying is Trump is right about her lack of enthusiasm ;-




People do everything fast in MN cause it's so dang cold. Have to hurry up and get stuff done so they can get home and sit by the furnace.

Down south we do things slowly because it is so dang hot....and we don't want to overheat.



2016-11-08 9:38 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Master
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Minnetonka, Minnesota
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Subject: RE: Election 2016
Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by ejshowers Just voted here in MN. No line and in and out in 5 minutes as usual.

So what your saying is Trump is right about her lack of enthusiasm ;-




Ha ha ha... No, I would say that MN has its voting process chit together!
2016-11-08 10:07 AM
in reply to: ejshowers

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by ejshowers
Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by ejshowers Just voted here in MN. No line and in and out in 5 minutes as usual.

So what your saying is Trump is right about her lack of enthusiasm ;-

Ha ha ha... No, I would say that MN has its voting process chit together!

I got to the polls about an hour before they opened, but it had nothing to do with enthusiasm.  It had to do with not wanting to fight 4000 high school kids for a parking spot at 8:00.  hah
There were a couple other people there early with me and maybe 50 or so in line when they opened.  I'm in suburb Omaha which is pretty red, but I was a little surprised at the open talk of supporting Trump between everyone.  Disclaimer, I'd fully expect a large majority in my hood to support him, but it was almost awkward because you typically don't talk politics or wear shirts/buttons/etc at the polling place. 

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