I posted this last November, 11/13/2015 to be exact:
Here's my simple logic, barring a 911 type disaster, economic meltdown or the FBI indicting Hillary:
1. Polls at this point are virtually meaningless unless they show a huge margin.
2. Demographics favor the D's. They did in 2008, more so in 2012, and they move that way about .4% each year, so that's another 1.6 in favor of Ds. Old white guys are dying off fast.
3. Ds start with a significant Electoral College advantage.
4. Hillary will do very well among women, the largest voting bloc.
5. Trump has alienated minorities at every turn. He won't even get Romney's tiny %, which the Rs need to equal at least to stand a chance.
6. The economy is doing OK. The Ds can show steady improvement in many measures since 2008 and plausibly say "Who wants to go back to policies that led to the mess GWB left us?"
So, although there was a FBI inquiry into Clinton, there was no indictment, but a lot of controversy occurred right at the end, which hurt Clinton a bit. Polls were tightening anyway as Rs consolidated, and the follow up "clearing her" letter helped move things back to her a bit, but I still think the Comey letter had an impact of a point or two maybe.
Bottom line - I stand by my post from a year ago and think Hillary will win the popular vote by 3 or so and will get around 300 Electoral Votes.