Polls (Page 7)

I would say it this way:

Hillary won the debate (comma), .....but what does it really mean to 'win' a debate?  The only thing that matters is did your "likely voters" increase, decrease or stay the same?  Over the next few days the polls will let us know who "won" the debate and no amount of media spin - left or right - will be able to refute that.

So far the only poll I've seen is the LA Times daily tracking poll that shows Trump up 4 points (1 point more after the debate) but that is statistical noise and means nothing. 

X

Real clear politics electoral map with no toss up states shows a tight race.  If Trump flips FL, that puts him on top.  Right now Clinton is up by 0.5 in FL in the average of polls.

Read this morning Trump had a rally in Melbourne that had about 10,000 people.

(Presentation1.jpg)

It won't surprise you but I disagree.  Anyone can memorize talking points and recite them.  I'm more interested in vision.  Hillary's vision for American is to keep the status quo....promise free college and free health care.  Only that stuff is not FREE.  She is part of the entitled elite in this country;  "I can't believe I am not up 50 points".  She thinks Americans think like she thinks and is SHOCKED that she is not winning in a landslide.  People must be stupid....deplorable...irredeemable. 

Trump's vision is to radically change the trajectory of the country.  Can he do it?  I don't know but it's worth a shot.  We're going to hellinahandbasket anyway.  He clearly has a movement of followers who are sick and tired government.  When they hear things like "Hillary wants to increase regulations which will kill jobs" they don't really care that he got about the 'birther issue".

Like I said, the person who "won the debate" will get a bump in the polls.  You, et al, have come up with a set of criteria as to who won.....composed, tick skinned, practiced, etc.  So in your mind, he won.  But if my criteria for winning is someone who understand what the Fed is doing to manipulate the economy and how China is using currency manipulation to cause a huge trade imbalance, then Trump WON hands down.  Hillary did not even show up to that debate!  It wasn't in her script.  She pulled an Algore too, "I was for the trade deal before I was against it."

Omg you're actually hitting her on this point and then voting for *Trump*?  He's the epitome of entitled elite.

Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy

Originally posted by Rogillio

Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy

Originally posted by Rogillio

Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Hillary won the debate, period.

 

I would say it this way:

Hillary won the debate (comma), .....but what does it really mean to 'win' a debate?  The only thing that matters is did your "likely voters" increase, decrease or stay the same?  Over the next few days the polls will let us know who "won" the debate and no amount of media spin - left or right - will be able to refute that.

So far the only poll I've seen is the LA Times daily tracking poll that shows Trump up 4 points (1 point more after the debate) but that is statistical noise and means nothing. 

 

 

X

Hey, you could be right that by Hillary winning the debate, she may not get a resultant bump in the polls. Yes, it is clear to all but the most ardent Trump supporters that Hillary Clinton won the debate. Does that guarantee a bump in the polls? No, BUT, it does make a Hillary bump in the polls much more likely. Hillary was more prepared. Hillary's arguments had more factual support. Hillary was calm under pressure. Trump panicked...became angry...repeated thinly-supported talking points from his rallies...demonstrated thin skin...repeatedly attempted to cut off his adversary...and topped it all off by using his last two minutes to threaten the use of personal attacks on Hillary. Hillary clearly demonstrated superior leadership skills. Trump's act is wearing thin...it's as if folks are thinking, "Oh, he's just behaving this way so he can get into Office, and THEN he'll behave in a dignified manner, THEN he'll present his plans to take out ISIS, THEN he will stand up to Putin's naked aggression, etc, etc." Um, no. He'll still have the same hair-trigger temper, just with the added power of the United States military and our nuclear arsenal under his control. How comforting. So, as I tried to point out earlier, polling results will not illustrate what impact the debate had until the weekend. Silver and the polling scientists know their stuff.

 

It won't surprise you but I disagree.  Anyone can memorize talking points and recite them.  I'm more interested in vision.  Hillary's vision for American is to keep the status quo....promise free college and free health care.  Only that stuff is not FREE.  She is part of the entitled elite in this country;  "I can't believe I am not up 50 points".  She thinks Americans think like she thinks and is SHOCKED that she is not winning in a landslide.  People must be stupid....deplorable...irredeemable. 

Trump's vision is to radically change the trajectory of the country.  Can he do it?  I don't know but it's worth a shot.  We're going to hellinahandbasket anyway.  He clearly has a movement of followers who are sick and tired government.  When they hear things like "Hillary wants to increase regulations which will kill jobs" they don't really care that he got about the 'birther issue".

Like I said, the person who "won the debate" will get a bump in the polls.  You, et al, have come up with a set of criteria as to who won.....composed, tick skinned, practiced, etc.  So in your mind, he won.  But if my criteria for winning is someone who understand what the Fed is doing to manipulate the economy and how China is using currency manipulation to cause a huge trade imbalance, then Trump WON hands down.  Hillary did not even show up to that debate!  It wasn't in her script.  She pulled an Algore too, "I was for the trade deal before I was against it."

 

 

 

 

That's pretty sad. Isn't it funny that most of the Right-wingers I know (like yourself) refuse to admit the GOP candidate ever loses a debate...yet, the folks I know who lean Left are more willing to admit it when their candidate loses a debate, i.e. Romney-Obama Part 1? btw, You have a candidate who refuses to admit he has any weaknesses. He never apologizes. He's never wrong! It's amazing! Six business bankruptcies? Banning all Muslims? Master businessman? It's comical...you've nominated an American equivalent of Kim Jong-Un. His lies are played off as Trumpian hyperbole. "I will release my tax returns!" ...suuuuuure you will Donald

It's only sad because you are looking at Trump as a traditional candidate.  Had this been anyone else, yes, he got smoked.  But this is Trump and he is who he is and that is part and parcel to his appeal!  I will concede he won the debate using the criteria that you laid out.  But to the Trump supporter, those things are way down the list of what is important.  His vision for America trumps all that!

6 business bankruptcies. Yup.  Sounds incredible as a  stand-alone taking factoid!  But couple it with the fact that he started over 500 business and given the failure rate of new business and you realize that's a darn good tract record.  

All Muslims?  He is an extreme negotiator (listen to the Dilbert thing I posted) and the 'ban all Muslims' doesn't bother me because I know exactly what he is doing and what he is saying.   

I would not advise him to release his taxes.  There is no good that can come of it.  There is no requirement for it except 'tradition' and he is not much of a traditionalist.  Gotta love his line though to Hillary and her releasing her 30,000 emails.  I would also like to know what she said to all those Wall Street people in those speeches she gave....like Bernie said (before he lost), 'It must have been good stuff to be paid $500k for a speech'. 

The difference is Trump is private citizen businessman and Hillary is a politician who made her fortune as a politician on the backs of the American people.

Apparently Trump benefits from the American people too, via bankruptcy law and tax law.

BK law takes the money from the banks though and progressives hate the big banks.  Therefore, Trump is progressive a hero.  ;-) 

Is that more an indictment on him or an indictment on the politicians who created the corrupt system that's driving us into debt?  He's been audited so many times it's pretty obvious that he's not breaking any laws.
Yet again, advantage Trump. 

trump also made his fortune on the backs of the American people.  I think we've gone through the laundry list of why he is slimy.

If it was just that he didn't pay any income tax, I think he would release his tax returns and claim SEE LOOK HOW GREAT I AM.

I think its that he doesn't want to show the money from the Russian banks and investors

It does leave us nothing more than to speculate.  If it is something like that then not releasing them and marginalizing guess like yours as fringe is much better than the reality.
Knowing how political the IRS has become under Obama I am almost certain if there is anything nefarious or really embarrassing then it will be "leaked" or "hacked" within the next few weeks.   

Evading taxes is illegal and you're correct that people don't crow about it.  Taking deductions is legal and any good citizen or business owner should take full advantage of them and not be ashamed.

By your logic, you shouldn't be taking any deductions on your taxes.

You really believe that? Let me make a coupe minor edits and tell me if you still agree with the overall sentiment of this argument. 

He's She's been audited investigated so many times it's pretty obvious that he's she's not breaking any laws.
Yet again, advantage Trump Clinton. 

The problem with Clinton is the evidence has been made public and everybody does know she's a criminal, but laws do not apply to her.  If you recall her slide really started when Comey made his statements about her.

Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by dmiller5

trump also made his fortune on the backs of the American people.  I think we've gone through the laundry list of why he is slimy.

 

If it was just that he didn't pay any income tax, I think he would release his tax returns and claim SEE LOOK HOW GREAT I AM.

I think its that he doesn't want to show the money from the Russian banks and investors

It does leave us nothing more than to speculate.  If it is something like that then not releasing them and marginalizing guess like yours as fringe is much better than the reality.
Knowing how political the IRS has become under Obama I am almost certain if there is anything nefarious or really embarrassing then it will be "leaked" or "hacked" within the next few weeks.   

Yeah, that Obama administration knows no limits. Ya see, Trump's been constantly audited for 15 years according to him...apparently Obama hates Trump SO much, he built a time machine to go back to the beginning of Dubya's administration to make sure Donald J Trump would be audited. This is a joke and you know it Tony. Proud Americans don't crow about evading taxes.

Evading taxes is illegal and you're correct that people don't crow about it.  Taking deductions is legal and any good citizen or business owner should take full advantage of them and not be ashamed.

By your logic, you shouldn't be taking any deductions on your taxes.

Tony- I make a teensy bit less than The Donald, and I'd bet I pay more federal income tax. There are billionaires out there who do pay federal income tax. I believe you may be near one...Mr. Buffett lives out your way, and if I'm not mistaken, he supports Hillary Clinton for president. He's quite outspoken about how screwed up our tax system is...no, not because it taxes him too much, but because he (as a billionaire) pays a smaller effective tax rate than his middle class employees. Trump wants to give tax relief to the wealthy. In a system that the richest 1% are benefitting from the most, Trump wants the ultra-rich even richer. I am firmly entrenched as a middle class household myself. My taxes haven't gone up during the tenure of President Obama. The federal income tax for the top 1% rose from 35% to 39.5% over the last 8 years. WOW! It used to be 90% back under Ike. How Trump and the GOP sleep at night is beyond me. This 8-second clip from The Simpsons asks that question: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GO0JaecRWy0

You basically telling me that you have no understanding of our tax system at all.  Buffett has a lower tax rate then his employees because he doesn't pay himself anything.  He gets a $100k salary which is taxed at the highest rate (39% I believe) in addition to social security etc.
However, the majority of his "income" comes from long term capital gains which are investments that he holds over a year and sells.  Those are taxed at 20% which is lower than somebody making a six figure salary, but it's a gain not income.
He also has billions of dollars that goes up and down every year that he doesn't cash out at all.  So he could technically make $10B in a year and not pay a penny in tax because he hasn't sold it yet.   It's the equivalent of you buying a mutual fund and holding it for several years.  Even if it goes up 100% you don't get hit with the gain until you sell it.

As for the 90% rate, that's a laughable argument because back when that rate was in place there were ridiculous deductions available to the wealthy so their effective tax rate was far lower than the rich today.

Now, you and I can both argue that the tax laws in place today are bad for whatever reason and should be changed but that doesn't give you an excuse to call Trump a tax cheat.  I could easily do the same thing with Hillary who donated $1M of her $1.1M in charitable contributions to her own charity that her family runs and that they use as a private slush fund to travel the world.  It's crap and should be fixed, but it is legal. 

I know a lot of you don't like the LA Times poll, but it does still go up and down with the other polls so it's a good momentum indicator.  I'll be curious to see how the others do as they come out.

So far it's fairly unchanged since the debate:

You never stop and ask yourself why Trump would be audited year after year after year if his books were clean? 15 straight years of routine audits, what are the odds.

"Odds" have very little to do with being audited.  The fact that he has been audited year after year and is not sitting behind bars is all anyone needs to know.

Trump uses the IRS rules to his advantage and that, as he correctly stated, is smart!