Originally posted by
Fred DOriginally posted by
thebigb
I got to have dinner last night with one of the pros and he had an interesting take on Jordan's demise. I'm paraphrasing here but what I took out of it was that Jordan most likely rode too hard on the back half to drop him and build a gap because he's a better runner than what he posted. If he had just maintained he probably would have been able to put up a strong enough run to keep Victor behind him and seal the win.
AKA Pedro Gomes? ;-)
I always find these assessments difficult to take. The bottom line is that at the PRO level, they are aware of where their principle rivals are. I'm quite sure Rapp knew where Victor was in relation to his position on the bike (at least an idea). By that same token, Del Corral ALSO has an idea where Jordan is, i.e.; he likely isn't going to let him get too far ahead on the bike if he can help it (and sometimes it's not their day and they can't respond).
So the key here is that the top level pro's are not static forces, and by this I mean that if Jordan pushes less hard on the bike, maybe Victor rides a bit slower as well and ends up running in the 2:3x range.
You never really know, but in essence what I'm trying to say is that the best athlete CLEARLY won on Sunday, despite anyone's analysis of the 'strategery' so to speak. Jordan didn't screw up, it was just Victor's day.
I see this same static logic when people are looking at KQ.... i.e.; if I had just had this finishing time in this given year at IMAZ (or whatever) I would have qualified. I say NO, you would not have. Conditions and many factors are different, but more importantly your competition at the pointy end tends to respond to what you are doing. The guy or girl taking the last Kona slot might know where they are in the race and speed up if they are being pushed for that slot (or not).
Kind of rambling but I suspect some of you will get what I'm trying to say, but, no, I do not agree that if Jordan had ridden less hard he would have won.... Del Corral was THE MAN that day and would have responded with different bike pacing (maybe) or more likely would have pushed an even faster run if Rapp was running well. It's pretty clear from the data that Del Corral slowed down in the final phase of the run. Maybe he had to, but I suspect he did it because he knew he had beaten his primary rival and adjusted accordingly.
Not Static.
Yeah, I agree with you, Fred. Races aren't static, so changing one thing changes others. Even at the amateur local level those competing for the podium know roughly where their primary competitors are and where they themselves stand throughout a race, and will respond to changes in pace or position. It even happens within age groups, not only for the overall podium. At the pro level, they tend to be even better informed and will adjust their strategy as the race unfolds.