US Economy Heading for Depression?

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US Economy Heading for Depression?
OptionResults
Depression Not Likely29 Votes - [50%]
Depression Somewhat Likely12 Votes - [20.69%]
Depression Very Likely12 Votes - [20.69%]
What's an Economic Depression?1 Votes - [1.72%]
I Don't know (Undecided)4 Votes - [6.9%]

2008-10-06 1:05 PM

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Champion
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500010010010025
Carlsbad, California
Subject: US Economy Heading for Depression?

CNN just released the results of a recent poll asking the question, "How Likely is an Economic Depression" given the current state of our economy.

With the Dow already below 10,000, The S&P just a hair away from the 1,000 mark, bad unemployment numbers and economists now pretty certain we are in a resession, the results would almost seem predictible.

But I am not so sure, I decided to launch our own little poll since I think we are a better cross section of the population then CNN viewers are. (And for our friends to the north or over seas, please don't hesitate to vote since you also have "A Dog In This Race"

Given the current state of our economy, "How Likely is an Economic Depression" in the coming months. Will it get better or will it continue to get worse

ETA: Forgot the Link:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/06/news/economy/depression_poll/index.htm



Edited by WaterDog66 2008-10-06 1:05 PM

2008-10-06 1:16 PM
in reply to: #1721124

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Elite
4504
20002000500
Columbus, Ohio
Subject: RE: US Economy Heading for Depression?
Recession, yes... Depression, no and very unlikely

From the article. Common indicators of the depression from 1930
  • 13% decrease in GDP
  • 25% unemployment rate
  • Widespread bank failures
  • Millions of Americans homeless and unable to feed their families

    • Most experts are expecting for '08 GDP decreases of 1-3%, 7-8% unemployment, and the bank failures have a minimal impact to most investors due to FDIC insurance and more pro-active actions by the treasury department and government as a whole.
    2008-10-06 1:19 PM
    in reply to: #1721160

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    Champion
    5345
    500010010010025
    Carlsbad, California
    Subject: RE: US Economy Heading for Depression?

    JChristoff - 2008-10-06 11:16 AM Recession, yes... Depression, no and very unlikely From the article. Common indicators of the depression from 1930 .13% decrease in GDP .25% unemployment rate .Widespread bank failures .Millions of Americans homeless and unable to feed their families Most experts are expecting for '08 GDP decreases of 1-3%, 7-8% unemployment, and the bank failures have a minimal impact to most investors due to FDIC insurance and more pro-active actions by the treasury department and government as a whole.

    Exactly the reason for my skepticism. (Thanks for pointing that out)

    Maybe we COJ folks are more tuned into the experts (Or at least more trusting) than the 60% of CNN Viewers were. Or maybe at least one or two COJ Kids are the experts

    In any case, I was pretty certain we would not be able to replicate their results of their poll here. (At least early voting seems to suggest this)



    Edited by WaterDog66 2008-10-06 1:20 PM
    2008-10-06 1:30 PM
    in reply to: #1721124

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    Champion
    6056
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    Menomonee Falls, WI
    Subject: RE: US Economy Heading for Depression?
    I don't know about the Economy but I can tell you I'm likely headed for a depression.


    2008-10-06 1:39 PM
    in reply to: #1721124

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    Expert
    1357
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    Mukwonago, WI
    Subject: RE: US Economy Heading for Depression?
    Always darkest b4 the dawn.  Now if you'll excuse me, I need to jump out my window!
    2008-10-06 1:45 PM
    in reply to: #1721124

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    Not a Coach
    11473
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    Media, PA
    Subject: RE: US Economy Heading for Depression?
    Possible we could slump into a "Modern Day" Depression, in that this could be a recession quite unlike most normal "business corrections".  But VERY unlikely we will witness anything like the Great Depression.  Policy makers may be making mistakes and things like the recent "bailout" may not work as well as hoped, but they appear unlikely to make the kind of mistakes that helped exacerbate things in the 1930s.  Same for overseas policy makers, though some of them seem to be more "behind the curve" right now.

    2008-10-06 1:49 PM
    in reply to: #1721202

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    Pro
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    Parker, CO
    Subject: RE: US Economy Heading for Depression?

    scoobysdad - 2008-10-06 12:30 PM I don't know about the Economy but I can tell you I'm likely headed for a depression.

    X2!

    2008-10-06 1:52 PM
    in reply to: #1721124

    Subject: ...
    This user's post has been ignored.
    2008-10-06 2:10 PM
    in reply to: #1721231

    Elite
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    Boise
    Subject: RE: US Economy Heading for Depression?

    wildee - 2008-10-06 1:39 PM Always darkest b4 the dawn.  Now if you'll excuse me, I need to jump out my window!

    +1 batman reference.

    2008-10-06 2:11 PM
    in reply to: #1721202

    Elite
    3371
    200010001001001002525
    Subject: RE: US Economy Heading for Depression?

    scoobysdad - 2008-10-06 2:30 PM I don't know about the Economy but I can tell you I'm likely headed for a depression.

    But your fantasy team is doing so well...  Sigh.

    2008-10-06 2:19 PM
    in reply to: #1721351

    Philadelphia, south of New York and north of DC
    Subject: RE: US Economy Heading for Depression?

    Isn't the classic definition of a recession a decline in GDP over two consecutive quarters?

    What's the definition of a depression?



    Edited by dontracy 2008-10-06 2:19 PM

    2008-10-06 2:32 PM
    in reply to: #1721381

    Master
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    portland, or
    Subject: RE: US Economy Heading for Depression?
    dontracy - 2008-10-06 11:19 AM

    Isn't the classic definition of a recession a decline in GDP over two consecutive quarters?

    What's the definition of a depression?



    While the decline of GDP over two consecutive quarters is the most common definition of a recession, there have been recessions that didn't meet that criteria. There's also no specific definition of a depression aside from it being a prolonged state of recession.

    scott
    2008-10-06 3:36 PM
    in reply to: #1721381

    Elite
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    Boise
    Subject: RE: US Economy Heading for Depression?
    dontracy - 2008-10-06 2:19 PM

    Isn't the classic definition of a recession a decline in GDP over two consecutive quarters?

    What's the definition of a depression?

     

    As one of my econ professors said "a recession is a depression, except no one wants to call it a depression anymore."

    2008-10-06 10:06 PM
    in reply to: #1721702

    Extreme Veteran
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    Subject: RE: US Economy Heading for Depression?
    JoshR - 2008-10-06 1:36 PM
    dontracy - 2008-10-06 2:19 PM

    Isn't the classic definition of a recession a decline in GDP over two consecutive quarters?

    What's the definition of a depression?

     

    As one of my econ professors said "a recession is a depression, except no one wants to call it a depression anymore."

    You are exactly right.  100 years ago, they called them "panics".  That got a bad name so they called them "depressions".  After the depression, that got a bad name so they called them "recessions".  Since that is sometimes a bad word, they call them slowdowns. 

    There is no comparison to the depression.  50% of the homes in the worst of the depression were in some sort of default.  Unemployment was at 25% + in the worst of the 1930s.  We are not even close to this and we are not looking to head there.

    We are most likely to heading  for a recession over the next couple of quarters but we have had six of those in the last 30 years and we will get through this too.

    Bear Markets are all scary and unprecedented.  Just like this one... we have come through all.  We will come through this one.

    Good luck all, Good question Tim,

    Emerson

    2008-10-06 10:25 PM
    in reply to: #1721381

    Master
    2701
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    Salisbury, North Carolina
    Subject: RE: US Economy Heading for Depression?
    dontracy - 2008-10-06 3:19 PM

    Isn't the classic definition of a recession a decline in GDP over two consecutive quarters?

    What's the definition of a depression?



    Recession is as you defined.

    One definition of a depression: "A depression is any economic downturn where real GDP declines by more than 10 percent." source = about.com. Using that definition the last depression in US was fr May '37 - June '38... = -18.2% GDP.

    We don't want a self-fulfilling prophecy.... i.e fear> panic> minimal spending> eventually you get bank runs... and that's all she wrote. Highly unlikely but not impossible. My son said "but Dad, the Great Depression can't happen again.. they put controls in place to prevent it" "Um, yes they did, no they're not adequate now, and yes it can." Maybe not on the same scale, but misery for a long time.

    Consumer spending drives aprox. 70 % of our GDP...... yikes.....Banks had best be coming off some of that $ they're sitting on and at least lending as much as they should to lower risk entities. It's late and I'm shooting from the hip a little, but you get the idea.


    Edited by tri42 2008-10-06 10:34 PM
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