Muskoka 70.3 gearing?

The course is hilly but there are no ridiculously steep climbs.  An 11-25 or 11-27 should be fine, remember every uphill has a downhill too

As for the Long Course this weekend, the terrain is similar but it runs on different roads.  Still you'll get an idea what you are info on both the bike and the run.

If you're climbing the hills around Horeshoe without issue, then you'll be fine - that include the one by the resort?

The trick with the 70.3 race is that the sting is in the tail.  First part of the ride is hilly, but you're fresh, middle of the ride is up and down but it's more undulating, last 25-30km is where it can kick you.  Lot of people grinding or spinning in this portion.

I specifically bought a compact crank this year and will run my 12-25 cassette.  My Goal is to keep the power even as much as possible throughout the ride, and be as fresh for the run as possible.  Oh, and be prepared for the ups and downs on the run.

yes, it isnt pretty but I get to the top. I havent been out there in a while but I have been biking back and forth between vaughan and Barrie and there are a few decent hills in there too. I am going to see how things go next weekend and make a decision.

You definetly have the bike volume - 80km commute, that's nuts.  I would actually recommend just a bit of caution with that ride, and maybe limit it to once per week, just because it's so much saddle time in short period and will take more time to recover.

That said, your speed shows that you've got good legs, and come Sept. I doubt you'll have too much to worry about.