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2006-02-18 6:01 PM

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Subject: Conspiracy Theory, anyone?
Ok, now I'm not saying it is true, but I have a real interest in conspiracy theories and urban legends, as well as the debunking of these. Sooo...someone sent me this link today. I was wondering what you all think. Some of the arguments are interesting, but others are bunk.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5137581991288263801&q=loos...


2006-02-18 6:43 PM
in reply to: #349077

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Subject: RE: Conspiracy Theory, anyone?
After reading Jim Marrs' book, Crossfire:The Plot that Killed Kennedy, this video clip makes you wonder.  I also say that the above mentioned book may not be accurate but the theories and what is presented by Marrs really make a person wonder about the integrity of our govenment.

Edited by Dr Hammer 2006-02-18 6:47 PM
2006-02-19 8:46 PM
in reply to: #349077

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Subject: RE: Conspiracy Theory, anyone?
Yeah, no. The video seems to fall victim to the ad hoc ergo propter hoc logical fallacy.

Beyond that, while some of the factoid-like points are interesting, the whole falls far short of any reasonable expectation of evidence.

We turn to conspiracy theories to explain the inexplicable; when events happen that seem impossible, or impossible to explain. These odd events crop up -- Pearl Harbor, the JFK assassination, 9/11 -- and we turn to a multitude of theories that purport to explain the unexplainable.

My first response is that sometimes, human events are weird or difficult to understand or difficult to believe or unsatisfying to the narrative sense. This, the fact that things are weird, does not mean that a secret cabal of powerful men are controlling world events. Conspiracies in the real world are fragile things, difficult to pull off, difficult to avoid defection of the participants, difficult to conceal. I do not mean that conspiracies are impossible, or never happen. Just that they are highly, highly, highly unlikely.

My second response is that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and I see none here.

My third response is that this is the same federal government that can't figure out it's own email system in the wake of Hurricane Katrina -- and you think they can pull off a highly technical, international, outlandish, horrifying, and evil-minded attack in the center of the world's media capitol and escape detection?
2006-02-19 8:49 PM
in reply to: #349100

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Subject: RE: Conspiracy Theory, anyone?
Dr Hammer - 2006-02-18 7:43 PM

After reading Jim Marrs' book, Crossfire:The Plot that Killed Kennedy, this video clip makes you wonder.  I also say that the above mentioned book may not be accurate but the theories and what is presented by Marrs really make a person wonder about the integrity of our govenment.


Sorry, Dr., I really appreciate the assist on my injury diagnosis, but now we're straying into my area of expertise. And Crossfire doesn't make me wonder about the integrity of our government. PLENTY of other things make me wonder about that, but not this book.



2006-02-19 8:51 PM
in reply to: #349613

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Subject: RE: Conspiracy Theory, anyone?

stupidnickname - This, the fact that things are weird, does not mean that a secret cabal of powerful men are controlling world events. Conspiracies in the real world are fragile things, difficult to pull off, difficult to avoid defection of the participants, difficult to conceal. I do not mean that conspiracies are impossible, or never happen. Just that they are highly, highly, highly unlikely.

 

Occam's razor.  Well said.

 

2006-02-19 8:58 PM
in reply to: #349077

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Subject: RE: Conspiracy Theory, anyone?
Sorry about that phoenix. Conspiracy theories are my button.



2006-02-19 9:13 PM
in reply to: #349615

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Subject: RE: Conspiracy Theory, anyone?
hangloose - 2006-02-19 9:51 PM

Occam's razor.  Well said.

 



I am also quite fond of a derivative of Occam's Razor, known as Hanlon's Razor.

Hanlon's Razor reads:

"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity."

2006-02-19 9:13 PM
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Subject: RE: Conspiracy Theory, anyone?

stupidnickname - 2006-02-19 9:58 PM Sorry about that phoenix. Conspiracy theories are my button.

He says that like he only has one.

 

2006-02-20 3:26 PM
in reply to: #349077

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Subject: RE: Conspiracy Theory, anyone?
Yay! Somebody mentioned Occam's Razor! Haven't heard that term in many years!
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