Qualifying for 2016 70.3 worlds

As Shane and Marc already pointed out nationality has nothing to do with it.  

Making an assumption that since the race is in your country, it will be easier to qualify is not always the case.  Yes, the Aussie, Kiwi, and maybe some Asian races will get 75-100 spots but that's bringing out the very, very best racers at those races.  The races will be very top heavy.  I've done two 100 slot races before and the times were off the charts fast.  What was a top-10 time the year before or after was 30th place the year of the 100 slots.  There will be no roll down slots.

I expect there to be a lot of roll down slots here in the US for next year's race.  They were practically giving away slots for the WC in Austria at some races this year.  It will be even more for next year.

That would be about 20th place in the M40-44 at most North American 70.3 races too.  Extra slots will bring extra fast racers at most races so that 20th quickly becomes 30th.  4:45 is probably not fast enough to 70.3Q in M40-44 at an average 70.3 course.  4:45 on a harder course and you probably got a legit shot.  4:45 on a fast to average course and you probably need to be in the 4:35 range to have a real legit shot.

Look at the Euro races that had expanded slots this past qualifying season and you'll get an idea.  Check out the top-10 times in M40-44.  All Euro races had 50 slots with three having enhanced.  The Euro Championship race in Weisbaden, Germany had 100 slots, Zell am See had 100 slots, and Austria 70.3 had 75.  Weisbaden is about 20 minutes slower than an average 70.3 just judging by the pro times.  So a 4:45 on an average course is more like a 5:05-5:10 at Weisbaden.  5:05-5:10 is basically a 35th place finish.  Austria 70.3 is an average course.  4:45 would have gotten you 31st.  Zell am See is a harder course as well and about 15 minutes slow so let's say 5:00 is equivalent to a 4:45.  A 5:00 finish at Zell am See would have been 53rd place.

The last 70.3 I did with 100 slots I came in 22nd place.  The year before my time would have got me 12th, the year after 9th.  Not quite at a 70.3Q level but just a bit outside.  Another guy that has done that same race with consistent results came in 12th the year of the 100 slots (I believe that was the last qualifying spot in the M40-44 AG) and I think was 6th and 7th the years sandwiched around the 100 slot year.

Flying to the States to cherry pick a spot is a real risky proposition.  We're only going to have 30 slots at races so while M40-44 is the largest AG, you're still only looking at 3-4 slots.  4:45 is not going to get you a sniff of the top-3 at an average course.  You'd have to hope for a roll down and the late season races might offer very genuine opportunities for that to happen.  A June or July race and the slots might just roll to whoever wants one because it would be hard for most people to make plans to travel to Australia on short notice.