Raleigh half? (Page 13)

i went to beaver dam today and got in a quality swim. left the wetsuit at home as ive given up all hope of using it in two weeks.

swung by inside out sports on the way to the lake and talked to someone training for the race, then i ran into several folks when i got to the lake also training. all in all, i spent a good half hour of my day today talking to complete strangers about the race. there seems to be a palpable energy in raleigh for this race. i can feel it coming

That's what I love about this sport, you meet so many cool people. I went swimming at Ebenezer yesterday. I did some with wetsuit, and some without. The water felt warm to me, like 75ish, even tho the army corps site says 70. I am not hopeful for wetsuit swim either

Water temp jumped from 70 on Friday to 72 on Saturday, remained 72 at 8am this morning. Will drop down a little again, but the slope of the trendline intersects the cutoff temperature at June 3rd by my plot...

Not planning on it being a wetsuit swim.

Bump.

The signs are out on Hillsborough and on the Greenway warning folks of the closing on June 2. It's getting close! We put a countdown on our family chalkboard - my kids are getting excited for me.

Since May 10th:

May 10th: 67
68
68
69
70
70
69
70
72
72
72
Today, May 21: 72

odd that all that rain didn't cool the lake down a degree. i was hoping these t-storms during the week would cool the lake off some.

I wish someone from WTC would go take a reading to see how it compares with the Army Corps website...

dang it all to heck!!!

I originally did not plan on using my wetsuit, then I got excited because I might be able to wear it, and now it seems highly unlikely at this point.... which means I will be most likely doin' a 63min swim on race day. bah.

With my luck it will be a torrential downpour with 22mph headwind on the bike and full sun with a billion percent humidity on the run.

stoopid weather.

Edited by bullyboy 2013-05-21 11:51 AM

Bullyboy, don't despair. Just read your siggy and breathe...

I hope they have a long chain on their thermometer

Still steady at 72.

...for the 5th day in a row...somebody go smack that thing, it must be stuck.

Edited by fgump 2013-05-22 8:32 AM

Alright, I'm a nerd. I just ran an Excel trend analysis, using data from March 31 (the recent low point of 53 degrees) to today, which is 53 data points. Running a linear trend, it projects a high of 75.8 degrees F on June 2nd. Here's the growth data:

May 23: 72.92960813
73.21980326
73.50999839
73.80019352
74.09038865
74.38058378
74.67077891
74.96097404
75.25116917
75.5413643
June 2: 75.83155943

However, with projected highs of 92+ degrees on race day, there's pretty much no way I am going to want any extra clothing on my body that day, even if it could save me 6 minutes on the swim. I'm going to lose 30-45 seconds getting the darn thing off anyway.


Edited by fgump 2013-05-22 8:57 AM

This is going to be close. The 10 day has a few cooler days coming up and the nights are still below 70. I guess what I'm saying is, I had given up hope, but now I think there's a chance. I'm on an emotional rollercoaster.

Water Temp = 73 today.

Agony...however, it's going to dip cooler after this front passes. Couple today's rain with cooler upcoming temps and I see it going back to 72, maybe 71.

If the wetsuit/lack thereof is the worst thing that you encounter on race day, it will not have been a bad day :-)

Wore a full wetsuit yesterday... a bit toasty. I think the cove we swim in is a bit warmer than what the corps of engineers has.

Long range air temp projections are in the mid 90's.

I'm now on the fence about the wetsuit. Love the buoyancy and the 6-10 minute savings I get on it, but not sure about the heat. Gonna do a few wetsuit-free lake swims (including a 1.2mi) and see how it goes. However, with temps in the 90's, the time savings is not an issue because it's unlikely that I'll be going for a fast time (fast for me that is) in that heat!

I've been lurking/watching this thread and have enjoyed the posts, comments and inside info about the course (as I'll be travelling up from the middle of South Carolina for the race).

Just so I'm clear, y'all are concerned about the race being wetsuit legal, in other words water temps less than 76.1, and not wetsuit allowed, as in water temps below 83. Given the current temps and historical trends I don't see the water temps rising over 83 that quickly.

I realize each competitor will have to make a personal choice if the water temp is in that allowed zone and that's fine. For me, I have a sleeveless wetsuit and have practiced in it in water temps up to 83. While a bit warm, I'll gladly take the time savings and go with the wetsuit. But to each his own within the rules.

Best of luck to everyone and hope to see some of y'all at the race.

The only problem here is, and this is speculation at this point, WTC may put all wetsuit wearers (if the temp is between 76.1 and 83.8) in the VERY LAST WAVE, going off after 8:22. I do not want to be on course an extra hour past my specified start time. That is what my dilemma is.

Bill,

I don't think that is speculation at all. I'm pretty sure the RD has stated (in this thread) that WTC will create the "wetsuit wave" at 8:22am (the last wave).

And, you are correct, if some people choose the wetsuit under these circumstances, they will start their race approx 1 hour later. With extended forecasts calling for temps at or near 90, that is a huge concern (mostly for the run).

Alan

Edited by japarker24 2013-05-23 9:17 AM

Sorry, had my speculations in the wrong spot there. My speculation is about the temperature, not about what the RD plans to do regarding the waves. Yes, if it is above 76.2, the following happens, per the Race Director:

Just a heads up, if the temp is between 76.2 and 83.8 and you choose to wear a wetsuit, you will start in a wave we will add as the last wave (start time of 8:22am).

It is my opinion (fgump) that this will lead to some heat-related issues on the run course. We have not had enough hot weather yet for folks to get their nutrition and hydration dialed in.

No way I would opt to start an hour later than originally planned. Given how quickly temps rise here on a sunny day, that extra hour of (relative) cool could be significant, especially if you are already a little warm from the wetsuit swim in relatively warm water. So you start the race having sweated on tthe swim, start biking at 9am (rather than 8), finish the bike at noon (rather than 11) and run from 12-2, rather than 11-1. Maybe it doesnt make that much difference but I remember in White Bake feeling horrible for the people who were just starting the run as I was mumbling my way down the finish chute, overheated and wanting a cold something to drink!

Looking at it another way, how many seconds/mins per mile on the run is each degree worth? If an hour equates to 5 degrees (possible that time of year?). The last 3 days in Raleigh the temps have increased by 3-5 degrees between 11:51 and 12:51 (which I guess is when the NWS takes their measurements). So you save, lets say, 6 mins on the swim, but give back X mins simply due to the additional heat on the run.

Of course, to each their own. I am also swayed by not really liking to swim in a wetsuit (no reason, just don't really like it) and having a full suit.

ETA: Found a calculator (Daniels) that has each 5 degrees adding 4s/mile to your time, so a min for a half marry. Obviously that could be more or less in reality. Just thought that was interesting.

ETA a second time: try this: http://fellrnr.com/wiki/VDOT_Calculator

Edited by louiskie 2013-05-23 10:17 AM

And this, to me, becomes the fun part - figuring out what is best for each individual racer. Seems perfectly tailored for obsessive-compulsive folks that most triathletes are.

My n=1 is that the wetsuit/last wave will be 28 minutes after my scheduled 7:54 start time. If I save 4-5 minutes on swim then that puts me about 23-24 minutes later than expected. Then I have to factor in heat of day due to later bike/run vs. heat in water vs. less energy actually swimming vs. traffic concerns vs. current conditioning vs. desired outcome of race (this is a B-C level race for me that I'm doing solely because my Raleigh-based cousin asked me to do).

All in all, for me I'll likely go with wetsuit. But if I can't then I'll just go without. For some folks it's a must-have, for others it's a gadget - like aero wheels, PMs, aero helmets, etc.