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2007-03-21 12:47 PM
in reply to: #731795

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Giver
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Subject: RE: Your chance to be Omniscient, Wise & Forward Thinking
Renee - 2007-03-21 1:39 PM

Maybe we should start with a smaller question.

What would this massive population dislocation do to the economy? Would we (and the rest of the world) be hit with a Humongous Depression?

Would there really be a massive population dislocation with only a 2' rise? During hurricaines, 2 feet of storm surge has practically no effect. It seems like the only people really affected would be those folks with east coast beach front property. ANd inthe grand scheme of things, that's not a lot of people.



2007-03-21 12:49 PM
in reply to: #731797

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Runner
Subject: RE: Your chance to be Omniscient, Wise & Forward Thinking
run4yrlif - 2007-03-21 1:41 PM
Scout7 - 2007-03-21 1:34 PM
run4yrlif - 2007-03-21 1:30 PM
Scout7 - 2007-03-21 1:25 PM

Nothing. Not a darn thing.

I'll be 81 at that point, and would have lovely beachfront property.

You're 350 feet above sea level...

How do you know that a 2' rise in sea level isn't going to swallow up more land than expected, hmmmmm?

Either way, still not doing a damn thing.

Your average nor'easter produces a storm surge >24". I'd say if you've so far been sea-water free, you'd be OK with a 2 foot rise.

Well, then, honestly, what's the big deal if the water rises 2'? 

2007-03-21 12:49 PM
in reply to: #731812

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2007-03-21 12:53 PM
in reply to: #731815

Buttercup
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Subject: RE: Your chance to be Omniscient, Wise & Forward Thinking

Although my house is about 12 feet above sea-level, the water table is just 12 inches below surface level.

Don't assume that water or land erosion is going to occur only at the surface level.

Florida's agriculture economy would likely be trashed (see Bangladesh's dying trees). We have Big Sugar in the southern part of the state - would we see sugar shortage? Strawberry industry would likely be trashed.

I wonder how the acquifier would be affected...



Edited by Renee 2007-03-21 12:57 PM
2007-03-21 12:56 PM
in reply to: #731825

Giver
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Subject: RE: Your chance to be Omniscient, Wise & Forward Thinking
Renee - 2007-03-21 1:53 PM

Although my house is about 12 feet above sea-level, the water table is just 12 inches below surface level.

Don't assume that water or land erosion is going to occur only at the surface level.

Does sea level rise equate to water table rise? I have no idea.

Where's a hydrologist when you need one? Speaking of which...where the heck is kimj81? I haven't seen her here in ages.

2007-03-21 12:58 PM
in reply to: #731812

Subject: RE: Your chance to be Omniscient, Wise & Forward Thinking
run4yrlif - 2007-03-21 10:47 AM
Renee - 2007-03-21 1:39 PM

Maybe we should start with a smaller question.

What would this massive population dislocation do to the economy? Would we (and the rest of the world) be hit with a Humongous Depression?

Would there really be a massive population dislocation with only a 2' rise? During hurricaines, 2 feet of storm surge has practically no effect. It seems like the only people really affected would be those folks with east coast beach front property. ANd inthe grand scheme of things, that's not a lot of people.

The island nations of Tuvalu and the Maldives would be almost completely submerged.  So, rich folks in the Hamptons and two countries.



2007-03-21 1:01 PM
in reply to: #731832

Giver
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Subject: RE: Your chance to be Omniscient, Wise & Forward Thinking

So Survivor would have to scout different locations?

<damn...I forget that there's a whole world outside of the US sometimes>





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2007-03-21 1:01 PM
in reply to: #731825

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2007-03-21 1:03 PM
in reply to: #731830

Buttercup
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Subject: RE: Your chance to be Omniscient, Wise & Forward Thinking
run4yrlif - 2007-03-21 1:56 PM
Renee - 2007-03-21 1:53 PM

Although my house is about 12 feet above sea-level, the water table is just 12 inches below surface level.

Don't assume that water or land erosion is going to occur only at the surface level.

Does sea level rise equate to water table rise? I have no idea.

Where's a hydrologist when you need one? Speaking of which...where the heck is kimj81? I haven't seen her here in ages.

Is it a stretch to assume that salt water will contaminate the water table? There go my orange and grapefruit tree - and everything else in my yard except for the sea grape (maybe).

2007-03-21 1:04 PM
in reply to: #731839

Runner
Subject: RE: Your chance to be Omniscient, Wise & Forward Thinking

Besides, gradual change over 50 years gives all the animals a chance to move elsewhere, along with the people.

Also, I'm willing to bet that given 50 years, we could find new places or methods for growing sugar and strawberries. 

2007-03-21 1:05 PM
in reply to: #731845

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2007-03-21 1:06 PM
in reply to: #731850

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2007-03-21 1:08 PM
in reply to: #731855

Giver
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Subject: RE: Your chance to be Omniscient, Wise & Forward Thinking
spokes - 2007-03-21 2:06 PM
Scout7 - 2007-03-21 1:04 PM

Besides, gradual change over 50 years gives all the animals a chance to move elsewhere, along with the people.

Also, I'm willing to bet that given 50 years, we could find new places or methods for growing sugar and strawberries.

Or, even better... a working FTL stardrive so we aren't stuck on this ball of mud anymore.

Don't think it can't happen in that short of a period of time... I think it will given the application of minds and computing power put together with quantum computers... 

Does all3sports deliver to the alpha centuri system?

2007-03-21 1:11 PM
in reply to: #731858

Runner
Subject: RE: Your chance to be Omniscient, Wise & Forward Thinking
run4yrlif - 2007-03-21 2:08 PM
spokes - 2007-03-21 2:06 PM
Scout7 - 2007-03-21 1:04 PM

Besides, gradual change over 50 years gives all the animals a chance to move elsewhere, along with the people.

Also, I'm willing to bet that given 50 years, we could find new places or methods for growing sugar and strawberries.

Or, even better... a working FTL stardrive so we aren't stuck on this ball of mud anymore.

Don't think it can't happen in that short of a period of time... I think it will given the application of minds and computing power put together with quantum computers...

Does all3sports deliver to the alpha centuri system?

I wonder what the roads will be like there.....Better pack the trail shoes, just in case. 

2007-03-21 1:14 PM
in reply to: #731855

Buttercup
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Subject: RE: Your chance to be Omniscient, Wise & Forward Thinking

I googled "What would sea level rise do to Florida?" and found this EPA site: http://epa.gov/climatechange/effects/coastal/index.html

Excerpt:

A two foot rise in sea level would eliminate approximately 10,000 square miles of land (including current wetlands and newly inundated dry land) (PDF, 26 pp., 267 KB, About PDF), an area equal to the combined size of Massachusetts and Delaware. (EPA, 1989)

Some of the most economically important vulnerable areas are recreational resorts on the coastal barriers of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. In many cases, the ocean-front block of these islands is 5 to 10 feet above high tide; but the bay sides are often less than two feet above high water and regularly flooded (see USGS's 7.5-minute map series). Erosion threatens the high ocean sides of these densely developed islands and is generally viewed as a more immediate problem than inundation of their low bay sides. Many ocean shores are currently eroding 1 to 4 feet per year

For the purposes of this game, lets assume that all the assumptions on this site are valid.

I'm not interested in debating whether global warming is real or not; this is about fantasy contingency planning and logistics. What would you do to best position yourself and your family? How clever and forward thinking are you?

Oh - and here's what they say about the water supply:

Rising sea level increases the salinity of both surface water and ground water through salt water intrusion. New York City, Philadelphia, and much of California’s Central Valley obtain some of their water from portions of rivers that are slightly upstream from the point where water is salty during droughts. If sea level rise pushes salty water upstream, then the existing water intakes might draw on salty water during dry periods. Salinity increases in estuaries also can harm aquatic plants and animals that do not tolerate high salinity.

Shallow coastal aquifers are also at risk (IPCC, 2001). The freshwater Everglades currently recharge Florida's Biscayne aquifer, the primary water supply to the Florida Keys. As rising water levels submerge low-lying portions of the Everglades, portions of the aquifer would become saline. Aquifers in New Jersey east of Philadelphia are recharged by fresh portions of the Delaware River which may become saline in the future.

In all of these cases, water management authorities currently prevent excessive salinity by releasing fresh water from reservoirs during droughts. One possible response to sea level rise would be to store more water during wet seasons so that more water can be released during droughts. However, other water management goals (e.g. flood prevention) may make it difficult to save extra water for the occasional drought. The impacts of climate change on local hydrology may offset or increase salinity increases due to sea level rise.



Edited by Renee 2007-03-21 1:16 PM
2007-03-21 1:16 PM
in reply to: #731878

Runner
Subject: RE: Your chance to be Omniscient, Wise & Forward Thinking
Well, not move to Florida is topping my list right about now.....


2007-03-21 1:21 PM
in reply to: #731858

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2007-03-21 1:22 PM
in reply to: #731884

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2007-03-21 1:22 PM
in reply to: #731807

Extreme Veteran
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Subject: RE: Your chance to be Omniscient, Wise & Forward Thinking
"But hey, cockroaches would be able to get intelligent then. "

Nah. cockroaches don't need to be intelligent. They are already highly evolved for survival, and have been for a long long time. Intelligence is just a recent evolutionary experiment, and it still remains to be seen if it is as successful as the cockroaches' adaption. Spokes, you fell into the trap of thinking that intelligence is a "higher"form of evolutionary development, and that humans are the apex of evolution. Evolution values only survival, it is not goal-oriented to produce intelligence or spirituality or any of that.

General answer:
I live halfway up a mountain, so I won't actually flood. I'm also well inland. The county I live in is about 90 % forest. I'm already armed. And in 50 years I'll be 105 years old. Ok, I get that the oceans backing up into the rivers may also contaminate lakes,(although I would think there would be more than two feet of drop between most lakes and the ocean and between the headwaters of almost any river and the ocean) but rain will still fall, right? Just as much rain as ever, maybe more, right? So why will there be a fresh water shortage? Don't you think that some lakes will not be contaminated, and that we can build barriers to prevent the contamination, allowing one-way flow, and also find ways to trap and contain rainwater? I think this would probably be more cost-effective than massive desalinization. I have seen several houses with their raingutters piped into a cistern for fresh water. It works in an area with rain.

I like Spokes' ideas on space exploration, unrelated to this scenario. Whey I was but a lad, I thought by now we would be WAY further along on this. We skidded to a halt after reaching the moon. What a shame. By now, we were supposed to have undersea colonies, too. Which may be a good idea given Renee's scenario. I like to train a few dolphins and become a fish-rancher. Get along, little tuna! yeeha!

Edited by HankJKy 2007-03-21 1:27 PM
2007-03-21 1:25 PM
in reply to: #731557

Champion
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The Green Between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh
Subject: RE: Your chance to be Omniscient, Wise & Forward Thinking
Want to read something REALLY sobering? Read The Road by Cormac McCarthy, about life in post-apocalyptic America.
2007-03-21 1:26 PM
in reply to: #731850

Buttercup
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Subject: RE: Your chance to be Omniscient, Wise & Forward Thinking
Scout7 - 2007-03-21 2:04 PM

Also, I'm willing to bet that given 50 years, we could find new places or methods for growing sugar and strawberries. 

Here's something to consider: Sugar cane is harvested after burning the crops. Perhaps a militant Global Warming Warriors cult/group/PAC might arise and try to outlaw the burning of sugar crops? And to restrict the use of precious water to irrigate the thousands and thousands of sugar cane acres?

(I read too much Asimov as a kid.)



Edited by Renee 2007-03-21 1:27 PM


2007-03-21 1:28 PM
in reply to: #731902

Subject: ...
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2007-03-21 1:29 PM
in reply to: #731915

Extreme Veteran
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Subject: RE: Your chance to be Omniscient, Wise & Forward Thinking
It's impossible to have read too much Asimov. I even read his nonfiction books.
2007-03-21 1:30 PM
in reply to: #731921

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Subject: RE: Your chance to be Omniscient, Wise & Forward Thinking
spokes - 2007-03-21 1:28 PM

HankJKy - 2007-03-21 1:22 PM "But hey, cockroaches would be able to get intelligent then. " Nah. cockroaches don't need to be intelligent. They are already highly evolved for survival, and have been for a long long time. Intelligence is just a recent evolutionary experiment, and it still remains to be seen if it is as successful as the cockroaches' adaption. Spokes, you fell into the trap of thinking that intelligence is a "higher"form of evolutionary development, and that humans are the apex of evolution. Evolution values only survival, it is not goal-oriented to produce intelligence or spirituality or any of that. General answer: I live halfway up a mountain, so I won't actually flood. I'm also well inland. The county I live in is about 90 % forest. I'm already armed. And in 50 years I'll be 105 years old. Ok, I get that the oceans backing up into the rivers may also contaminate lakes,(although I would think there would be more than two feet of drop between most lakes and the ocean and between the headwaters of almost any river and the ocean) but rain will still fall, right? Just as much rain as ever, maybe more, right? So why will there be a fresh water shortage? Don't you think that some lakes will not be contaminated, and that we can build barriers to prevent the contamination, allowing one-way flow, and also find ways to trap and contain rainwater? I think this would probably be more cost-effective than massive desalinization. I have seen several houses with their raingutters piped into a cistern for fresh water. It works in an area with rain. I like Spokes' ideas on space exploration, unrelated to this scenario. Whey I was but a lad, I thought by now we would be WAY further along on this. We skidded to a halt after reaching the moon. What a shame. By now, we were supposed to have undersea colonies, too. Which may be a good idea given Renee's scenario. I like to train a few dolphins and become a fish-rancher. Get along, little tuna! yeeha!

Hank: really good points in your first paragraph. You didn't write the script for the Starship Troopers movie, did you? Because one character said that about The Bugs.





Nope, didn't write it, didn't see it. It's not a very creative observation, just basic evolution. On my home planet, everyone is aware of this. Except maybe those who are so highly evolved they don't need to be aware.

Edited by HankJKy 2007-03-21 1:33 PM
2007-03-21 1:30 PM
in reply to: #731915

Runner
Subject: RE: Your chance to be Omniscient, Wise & Forward Thinking
Renee - 2007-03-21 2:26 PM
Scout7 - 2007-03-21 2:04 PM

Also, I'm willing to bet that given 50 years, we could find new places or methods for growing sugar and strawberries.

Here's something to consider: Sugar cane is harvested after burning the crops. Perhaps a militant Global Warming Warriors cult/group/PAC might arise and try to outlaw the burning of sugar crops? And to restrict the use of precious water to irrigate the thousands and thousands of sugar cane acres?

(I read too much Asimov as a kid.)

Guess I'll switch to Sweet 'n Low for my coffee.....

While we're at it, can we build a big wall around New York City, and use it as a prison?  Call me Snake.

(Sorry, Renee, I'm not making fun of you, but it reminds me of "Escape From New York" 

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