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2006-10-11 2:46 PM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline

ASA22 - 2006-10-11 2:42 PM This number does seem unbeleivable to me, especially given that the total population of Iraq is 26,758,000. 650,000 seems...well unbelievable.

 

Good point!  That would be 2.5% of the entire population.  If we lost 2.5% of our population do you think the news media would lose track of 7,000,000 people?



2006-10-11 2:51 PM
in reply to: #566848

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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline
Renee - 2006-10-11 3:13 PM

Not sure if it's the one you are speaking of, but the article cited a British report from 2004 that was criticized for it's small sampling from which extrapolations were made. This report was meant to be more meaningful/accurate. As far as these things can be accurate, anyway.


The 2004 survey was done by the same people. It was released just before the 2004 elections. This is kind of an updated version.

Here is the link to a summary of the 2004 survey:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/LAN410A.html
2006-10-11 3:18 PM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline
Rogillio - 2006-10-11 1:46 PM

ASA22 - 2006-10-11 2:42 PM This number does seem unbeleivable to me, especially given that the total population of Iraq is 26,758,000. 650,000 seems...well unbelievable.

 

Good point! That would be 2.5% of the entire population. If we lost 2.5% of our population do you think the news media would lose track of 7,000,000 people?

Given that we're not a war torn country, yes it would be rather sensational.

So your only basis for rejecting is that you don't think it's beliveable?

A private group called Iraqi Body Count, for example, says it has recorded about 44,000 to 49,000 civilian Iraqi deaths. But it notes that those totals are based on media reports, which it says probably overlook "many if not most civilian casualties."

For Burnham's study, researchers gathered data from a sample of 1,849 Iraqi households with a total of 12,801 residents from late May to early July. That sample was used to extrapolate the total figure. The estimate deals with deaths up to July.

The survey participants attributed about 31 percent of violent deaths to coalition forces.

Accurate death tolls have been difficult to obtain ever since the Iraq conflict began in March 2003. When top Iraqi political officials cite death numbers, they often refuse to say where the numbers came from.

The Health Ministry, which tallies civilian deaths, relies on reports from government hospitals and morgues. The Interior Ministry compiles its figures from police stations, while the Defense Ministry reports deaths only among army soldiers and insurgents killed in combat.

The United Nations keeps its own count, based largely on reports from the Baghdad morgue and the Health Ministry."

The source for this you ask?  That wonderful left leaning massively biased news site, Fox.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,219638,00.html 

2006-10-11 3:29 PM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline
Hey Chris...relax. I didn't say I accepted or rejected the statistic. All I said is I found it unbelievable. In the sense of "shocking" and the dual meaning that it is hard to believe that 2.5% of the population could be killed. From a lay persons sense and a gut reaction sense I do find the number unbelievable.

I've read the article, and I've read the original British paper from 2004. I'm not a statistician, nor do I have scientific training. As a lay person I have questions about the methodology and I have questions about how the samples were obtained and the validity of extrapolating those samples. (There has been criticism that too large of a sample was taken from the areas of the country experiencing the most fighting, while not enough samples were taken from the areas of less fighting. To me as a lay person that criticism makes sense. It would be like taking the murder rate from D.C. and Detroit and extrapolating the death rate nationwide. But I conceed that I have no math skills at all)

But remember what Mark Twain said about statistics. It does hold true. And while the methodology may be acceptable, this does not mean that the numbers are true.
Again, if the those numbers are true the number of deaths is unbelievable.
2006-10-11 4:31 PM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline

Media bias research...

Several folks in this thread have called for documentation and research regarding media bias.  I knew I had read something about this several years ago.  Here's a some research done in 2004.  Plus they also site some other research.  Pretty interesting...

FYI...I just skipped over all the "math" when reading it. Made my head hurt.  Tech_geezer would like it though.   :-)

http://www.polisci.ucla.edu/faculty/groseclose/Media.Bias.8.htm



Edited by shawn barr 2006-10-11 4:33 PM
2006-10-11 7:59 PM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline
I'm not sure about these estimates. As I've said as a layman it seems high to me. Just as a comparison I tried to find figures for civilian deaths in WWII. I found some interesting numbers. If the researchers are correct the death rates in Iraq equal the percentage death rates of some European countries death rates in WWII. (China 1.89%, France 1.35%, Germany 10.8%, Japan 3.6%) Here are some hard numbers, remember these are the total civilian deaths for WWII:

France: 267,000
Japan 600,000
USSR: 11,500,000
Germany: 1.8 million

It seems odd to me that the number of deaths in Iraq equals or exceeds the number of deaths suffered by the Japanese in WWII. Maybe it is true.

But I just wanted to give some numbers so everyone can put the Iraq study estimates into context.





2006-10-11 8:19 PM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline

And the WSJ has a bit more information in it's writeup:

here

And as another number to throw out there, in 100 days in Rwanda it's estimated that 800,000 people lost their lives.



Edited by coredump 2006-10-11 8:25 PM
2006-10-11 8:54 PM
in reply to: #567119

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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline

ASA22 - 2006-10-11 7:59 PM I'm not sure about these estimates. As I've said as a layman it seems high to me. Just as a comparison I tried to find figures for civilian deaths in WWII. I found some interesting numbers. If the researchers are correct the death rates in Iraq equal the percentage death rates of some European countries death rates in WWII. (China 1.89%, France 1.35%, Germany 10.8%, Japan 3.6%) Here are some hard numbers, remember these are the total civilian deaths for WWII: France: 267,000 Japan 600,000 USSR: 11,500,000 Germany: 1.8 million It seems odd to me that the number of deaths in Iraq equals or exceeds the number of deaths suffered by the Japanese in WWII. Maybe it is true. But I just wanted to give some numbers so everyone can put the Iraq study estimates into context.

Just an interesting note.  In WWII approx 214,000 were killed in the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki alone...

2006-10-12 6:18 AM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline
There was a study by this group a year ago which was heavily criticized by the US Gov. So they went back to the drawing board and essentially came up with similar numbers. These are statistics based on health and disease analysis methods. They are usually sound statistically but can be inaccurate if the collection grid is skewed. For example if most of their info was gathered in Falluja, Bagdad, or Anbar province then the estimate will be high. Conversely if they concentrated their questioning within the "green zone" then their study would show that 0 civilian deaths had occurred.
The methods used here are just as accurate as those used by gov/media goups. Using eyewitness accounts or hospital records are no more accurate than conducting interviews and using death certificates.
Oh and Mark Twain, Sam Clemons, nor Tom Sawyer attended Johns Hopkins nor were they statisticians, jus sayin.
2006-10-12 7:35 AM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline
coredump - 2006-10-11 9:19 PM

And the WSJ has a bit more information in it's writeup:

here

And as another number to throw out there, in 100 days in Rwanda it's estimated that 800,000 people lost their lives.



Now that's an unbelievable number...in the sense of unbelievably horrific...and unbelievably tragic...
2006-10-12 7:55 AM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline
coredump - 2006-10-11 8:19 PM

And the WSJ has a bit more information in it's writeup:

here

And as another number to throw out there, in 100 days in Rwanda it's estimated that 800,000 people lost their lives.

 

But wait, you forgot to blame GWB for this!  C'mon, you know there has to be a tie to GWB and an excuse to slame our President!  I'm sure someone else from the board will chime make the connection.  ;-)

 

The thing I find most ironic is how willing....no, anxious people seem to be to accept these numbers.  It's almost like some people are hoping the higher number (655,000 instead of 50,000) is right so they can make thier political case that the war is a disaster.  Hatred of GBW seems to have skewed some people's reasonable thinking.  Go ahead and flame away...but first review this thead and see what I mean about the defense of these indefensible numbers.  More civilian deaths in Iraq than Japanese in all of WWII including Hiroshima and Nagasaki?  Unbelievable that people are still trying to defend the 655,000 number!

~Mike



2006-10-12 8:01 AM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline
Rogillio - 2006-10-12 8:55 AM  Unbelievable that people are still trying to defend the 655,000 number!

In reading through the thread, to me it seems like it's not so much the number that's being defended as it is the manner in which the number was derived.

But I agree that it would be pretty sad if people were happy about that much death.

2006-10-12 8:53 AM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline
It's interesting I just read through the original Lancet Report, and I have to admit that most of it was just mumbo-jumbo to me, as I have no math training at all. Way over my head. But I foud the conclusion of the study very interesting. I think if you're really interested in this issue you should read the study itself. In the discussion section of the orginal Lancet report they are pretty honest in discuss possibilities in "lack of precision" in collecting their data. They seem to be confident in their conclusion based upon their methodology, but they are also very open about possible problems with the "precision" of the gathering of data (my term not thiers).

I guess my point is, as usual don't beleive everything you read in the press and how it is outlined. primary sources are always better than secondary. If you want to know what the Lancet report says about the mortality rates in Iraq, don't find out from a two paragraph newspaper article. Read the actual report.

Their conclusion that mortality rates increased during the war and post war period aren't really all that shocking if you step back and think about it. I guess it's to be expected that mortality rates would increase during times of war, and would also be higher post war than pre war given the damage to the infrastructure.
2006-10-12 9:12 AM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline
coredump - 2006-10-11 9:19 PM

And as another number to throw out there, in 100 days in Rwanda it's estimated that 800,000 people lost their lives.



Do you have a source for this number? Les Roberts, one of the lead researchers on the Iraq study, also did some studies in Rwanda. I wonder if the 800,000 number comes from him? Doesn't mean either number is right or wrong, just curious.

Another curious bit of info, Roberts ran for Congress earlier this year. He withdrew from the race in May.

http://www.thedailystar.com/news/stories/2006/05/18/roberts7.html
2006-10-12 9:19 AM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline
KIGALI, April 4 (Reuters) - The 1994 Rwandan genocide claimed 937,000 victims according to a census the Rwandan government conducted in 2001, a cabinet minister said on Sunday. The figure emerged as the country prepared to mark 10 years since the massacres began with a memorial on Wednesday for the ethnic Tutsis and politically moderate Hutus killed in 100 days of slaughter that the outside world did little to prevent. Estimates of the genocide's death toll have long conflicted, ranging from 500,000 to one million people killed. The International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, created by the United Nations to prosecute perpetrators, estimates that "some 800,000 Rwandans were killed" between April and July 1994.

 

2006-10-12 2:52 PM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline
Germany lost 2.4% of the civilian population during WW2, carpet bombing and all.

500,000 casualities for Iraq puts it at a bit less than a 2% death rate. just going by these numbers i have a hard time believing that the report is accurate.


2006-10-12 2:58 PM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline

I'm wondering if it's legit to compare situations where the country had no extended period of insurgency or internecine fighting with a situation like Iraq.

The highest mortality rates do seem to occur in situations where there is internal conflict eg. the American civil war, Rwanda, Turkey/Armenia.  

2006-10-12 3:07 PM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline
there was about a 3% casualtie rate during the Civil War. that was over a 4 year period of intense fighting.

i really have a hard time believing the numbers quoted in the report. of course, the official goverment numbers are probably just as inaccurate.
2006-10-12 3:12 PM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline
Incidentally, where would a report have to come from in order for it to be non-biased? What news agency? Seriously? Because I'm getting out of here in 6 months with a degree in journalism, and I want you people to believe what I report. I think that a lot of people assume that we publish without penalty, which isn't true. We report what the population is asking for (hence the sheer size of the celeb-journalist pool). Saying, "the media is crap and reports nothing!" ain't helping. Write to your editors, tell them what you want to read....just remember, sometimes what we report isn't pretty, and won't fit into your accepted view. It sucks.
2006-10-12 3:13 PM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline
I think the reports in the articles for Playboy are pretty unbiased
2006-10-12 3:26 PM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline
phoenixazul - 2006-10-12 1:12 PM

Incidentally, where would a report have to come from in order for it to be non-biased? What news agency? Seriously? Because I'm getting out of here in 6 months with a degree in journalism, and I want you people to believe what I report. I think that a lot of people assume that we publish without penalty, which isn't true. We report what the population is asking for (hence the sheer size of the celeb-journalist pool). Saying, "the media is crap and reports nothing!" ain't helping. Write to your editors, tell them what you want to read....just remember, sometimes what we report isn't pretty, and won't fit into your accepted view. It sucks.


i didn't mention any bias. i just said that the numbers don't make sense. you are right, the people get fed what they want to hear, but this is a chicken-and-egg problem. i remember that the news 30 years ago contained WAY less celebrity crap and more information than today. so did people get dumber or are the media just reporting stuff that's easier to come by? i don't know.

i do know that i don't bother watching the news anymore, neither FOX nor CNN. if you want information, you've got to hunt for it.

Edited by awol 2006-10-12 3:27 PM


2006-10-12 3:32 PM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline
trigods - 2006-10-12 4:13 PM I think the reports in the articles for Playboy are pretty unbiased
I know the pictures are unbiased but probably brushed over a bit.
2006-10-12 3:36 PM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline
phoenixazul - 2006-10-12 4:12 PM

Incidentally, where would a report have to come from in order for it to be non-biased? What news agency? Seriously? Because I'm getting out of here in 6 months with a degree in journalism, and I want you people to believe what I report. I think that a lot of people assume that we publish without penalty, which isn't true. We report what the population is asking for (hence the sheer size of the celeb-journalist pool). Saying, "the media is crap and reports nothing!" ain't helping. Write to your editors, tell them what you want to read....just remember, sometimes what we report isn't pretty, and won't fit into your accepted view. It sucks.


OK, it's not the news agency, but the sources. Read the paper that was posted by Shawn about bias in the media. When a person cites a group that has a known leaning left or right 5 times more than one on the opposite side, I'd say that we've determined that person's bias.

Also, in regular news stories, in the papers, I see very little given to the other side. Report both sides, especially when you're quoting numbers at me. Ok, so a glass is at the 50% mark. That means that the glass is half full, and half empty.

The only news on tv I watch is local news. They actually seem to be pretty good about reporting things, too.

I'm not picking on you specifically, trying to answer your questions.
2006-10-12 3:41 PM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline
gullahcracker - 2006-10-12 4:32 PM

trigods - 2006-10-12 4:13 PM I think the reports in the articles for Playboy are pretty unbiased
I know the pictures are unbiased but probably brushed over a bit.


ACtually, we ARE required to read the Q&A from Playboy for our Interviewing class...they've got some of the best style in the business.
2006-10-12 3:43 PM
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Subject: RE: 655,000 Iraqis die because of war - CNN headline
You make an excellent point about local news. But the "news" portion of news is usually unbiased.
But in judging bias we, as a news using community, are poor judges. Any news we don't like we brush aside as biased. If a report says Clinton is a womanizing hoe chaser, although I know it's true, I'm inclined to believe the reporter's bias against Clinton. If another reporter says W is a drunken imbecile who couldn't tell the truth if his country depended on it , I'd probably agree. That's my bias not the medias. So is there such a thing as media bias, well yes, but it pales in comparasion to our own bias and our expectations of reporters.
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