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2016-11-06 6:12 PM
in reply to: spudone

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Mark, I just heard something interesting on the news.

They were saying that there is one Washington electoral voter (Bernie Supporter) who has vowed to not vote for Hillary and there's a second one who is considering the same.
That would be an interesting wrinkle for sure.

Even if this were to benefit Trump I would not approve of such a thing personally.  The rules are what they are and as an electoral you are representing many tens of thousands (if not hundreds) of voters.  It's not about you skippy. 



2016-11-06 6:30 PM
in reply to: Scott71

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by Scott71

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by spudone

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by spudone

Like I said, you guys need to look outside your state bubbles  But keep on believin'

It will be a close result because both of them are bad candidates, and because the electoral college map has tipped in favor of the Democrats.

The last time Republicans had a blowout presidential election was George H.W. Bush, and that was back when California was in play for them.

 

Definitely looking outside my bubble.  Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Mexico are traditionally very Blue states that are close enough that both candidates are campaigning there heavily.
That doesn't happen unless she's having big problems with support, IMHO.

Wisconsin I believe could go red - they even have a republican governor right now.  I doubt it on Michigan and Minnesota.  And then New Mexico is 5 electoral votes, probably not critical.  But you're glossing over Trump shooting himself in the foot with some of the states that G.W. easily won (Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, etc.).  I don't really believe Arizona will go blue but when you talk about getting out the vote -- Trump has done more to get Hispanics to the polls than a lot of the DNC groundwork.

Florida is the big toss up, as usual.

 

Put it another way:

Hillary isn't going to win something like Arizona *unless* she's already got an absolutely crushing win going across the country.  So it makes sense for both her and Trump to go campaign in states like the ones you mentioned.  Trump needs to win over maybe a few if he gets Florida, maybe a lot if he doesn't.  Hillary is smart to defend those as well.

Two things surprise me.  One is that neither candidate is driving for the homerun in Florida.  And two, is that Trump hasn't put more focus on Pennsylvania.  That's 20 electoral votes and a lot of blue collar support (IMO).  I'm not a campaign manager though.

Good thoughts.  I was curious about Florida as well because most of the polls have it pretty close there, but neither Trump or Clinton are focusing a lot there.  Yes, they've both been there recently but I'd expect an all out blitz if they both feel it's a tossup.  Hillary can win more easily without Florida, if Trump can't win Florida then it's likely a hopeless cause.

There is an argument that Clinton will take Florida as the polling data does not accurately represent the Latino vote.  If you look at the 2012 results, the RCP average had Romney with a 1.5% lead in the final days before the election, but Obama took Florida with a 0.9% margin. 

I wonder if the RCP average is onto something.  RCP had Romney up by 1% the week before the election but the overall victory was Obama by 5%.  In other words they were off by 5%-6% with the candidate with the big crowds making the difference for Obama.  This year Hillary is up by 2% nationally and 1% in Florida in the RCP averages.
I do agree that the Latino vote turnout has been hard for the pollsters to capture, but also the AA turnout. Did a quick google and Florida total population is 15% black and 23% Hispanic.

The good news is that we'll likely know early how the polls are really confirming.  If Florida is a 10% Trump then we know the polls are way off, or if they're a toss up or Hillary call then it will be over quick.

2016-11-06 7:04 PM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Should I start calling you guys Truth Deniers? :-D 

If you truly don't want to be a denier, I'd recommend this site: http://www.mostdamagingwikileaks.com

 

2016-11-06 7:52 PM
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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Just when you thought it was over.  Apparently this is part two of the original DNC leaks:
Today, Friday 22 July 2016 at 10:30am EDT, WikiLeaks releases 19,252 emails and 8,034 attachments from the top of the US Democratic National Committee -- part one of our new Hillary Leaks series. The leaks come from the accounts of seven key figures in the DNC: Communications Director Luis Miranda (10770 emails), National Finance Director Jordon Kaplan (3797 emails), Finance Chief of Staff Scott Comer (3095 emails), Finanace Director of Data & Strategic Initiatives Daniel Parrish (1472 emails), Finance Director Allen Zachary (1611 emails), Senior Advisor Andrew Wright (938 emails) and Northern California Finance Director Robert (Erik) Stowe (751 emails). The emails cover the period from January last year until 25 May this year.

https://wikileaks.org/dnc-emails/?q=%40releasedate+%222016-11-07%22&mfrom=&mto=&title=&notitle=&date_from=&date_to=&nofrom=&noto=&count=50&sort=0#searchresult

I'm also assuming there's a whopper in this one or tomorrow based on this tweet from Hillary's Communications Director earlier today. (hey, wait a minute... How does she know what's in the emails if they're fake?):




Edited by tuwood 2016-11-06 7:57 PM
2016-11-06 8:14 PM
in reply to: 0

Master
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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Should I start calling you guys Truth Deniers? :-D

I don't have my head in the sand.  I just believe that Trump is worse.

 

Edit: and don't get me started on Assange.  His kind of "journalism" gets good people killed.



Edited by spudone 2016-11-06 8:16 PM
2016-11-06 9:22 PM
in reply to: ejshowers

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by ejshowers
Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by spudone

Like I said, you guys need to look outside your state bubbles  But keep on believin'

It will be a close result because both of them are bad candidates, and because the electoral college map has tipped in favor of the Democrats.

The last time Republicans had a blowout presidential election was George H.W. Bush, and that was back when California was in play for them.

 

Definitely looking outside my bubble.  Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Mexico are traditionally very Blue states that are close enough that both candidates are campaigning there heavily.
That doesn't happen unless she's having big problems with support, IMHO.

He is in those states because he has to win a blue state and is grasping at straws imo... I am in MN. He has virtually zero chance to win here. He was THIRD in the primary here!

He did win the statewide High School vote, so he's got some support somewhere.   
http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2016/11/01/minnesota-high-school-vote-donald-trump/

(btw, seeing Trump beat hillary in High School polls all over the country is very encouraging about the future.



2016-11-07 7:54 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Election 2016
Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by ejshowers
Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by spudone

Like I said, you guys need to look outside your state bubbles  But keep on believin'

It will be a close result because both of them are bad candidates, and because the electoral college map has tipped in favor of the Democrats.

The last time Republicans had a blowout presidential election was George H.W. Bush, and that was back when California was in play for them.

 

Definitely looking outside my bubble.  Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Mexico are traditionally very Blue states that are close enough that both candidates are campaigning there heavily.
That doesn't happen unless she's having big problems with support, IMHO.

He is in those states because he has to win a blue state and is grasping at straws imo... I am in MN. He has virtually zero chance to win here. He was THIRD in the primary here!

He did win the statewide High School vote, so he's got some support somewhere.   
http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2016/11/01/minnesota-high-school-vote-donald-trump/

(btw, seeing Trump beat hillary in High School polls all over the country is very encouraging about the future.




I always like to hear the votes of grammar school kids because I think this is better 'polling data' than you can get by calling mom and dad. Most kids are going to parrot what they head and see Mom and Dad saying at home.

To some degree HS polls are the same way....but by HS many teens have begun to think for themselves.
2016-11-07 8:40 AM
in reply to: spudone

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by spudone

Should I start calling you guys Truth Deniers? :-D

I don't have my head in the sand.  I just believe that Trump is worse.

 

Edit: and don't get me started on Assange.  His kind of "journalism" gets good people killed.

I'm not that old, but I remember when American journalists used to be like Assange.  Now they just take their talking points from the government and report what they're told to.  It's sad how we're creeping closer and closer to a third world dictatorship with state run media.  

As far as Trump being worse, I just don't see how anyone can make that argument.  Sure, he's said some bad words, but everything he's ever done was in his private and business life.  What Hillary has done has effected our entire nation and put us all at risk.  There's evidence to suggest that people have been killed based on her complete disregard for our nations secrets.
I try to keep things out of the religious spectrum for the most part here, but there are a lot of demonic influences over her and her campaign.  The stuff coming out lately about several people in her campaign going to spirit cooking events and the satanic, sadistic, and perverted pictures scattered throughout Podesta's house are freaking whacked out.
Even Beyonce the other day was wearing a satanic goats head ring during her performance for Hillary. 

I've always felt that Hillary was pure evil, but the I always thought it on a metaphorical level.  I'm starting to think it's true on a literal level as well.  

BTW, in the latest Wikileaks last night from the DNC there's talk of how they're going to label Trump as a sexual deviant with ties to the Russian very early in the campaign.  It's amazing how they could know all that stuff prior to all the women coming out.  Just saying. 

Curious what else is going to drop today, but a DDOS attack was launched earlier this morning from inside the US that dropped Wikileaks for an hour.  Twitter went offline for a while too.

2016-11-07 8:53 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Election 2016
Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by spudone

Should I start calling you guys Truth Deniers? :-D

I don't have my head in the sand.  I just believe that Trump is worse.

 

Edit: and don't get me started on Assange.  His kind of "journalism" gets good people killed.

I'm not that old, but I remember when American journalists used to be like Assange.  Now they just take their talking points from the government and report what they're told to.  It's sad how we're creeping closer and closer to a third world dictatorship with state run media.  

As far as Trump being worse, I just don't see how anyone can make that argument.  Sure, he's said some bad words, but everything he's ever done was in his private and business life.  What Hillary has done has effected our entire nation and put us all at risk.  There's evidence to suggest that people have been killed based on her complete disregard for our nations secrets.
I try to keep things out of the religious spectrum for the most part here, but there are a lot of demonic influences over her and her campaign.  The stuff coming out lately about several people in her campaign going to spirit cooking events and the satanic, sadistic, and perverted pictures scattered throughout Podesta's house are freaking whacked out.
Even Beyonce the other day was wearing a satanic goats head ring during her performance for Hillary. 

I've always felt that Hillary was pure evil, but the I always thought it on a metaphorical level.  I'm starting to think it's true on a literal level as well.  

BTW, in the latest Wikileaks last night from the DNC there's talk of how they're going to label Trump as a sexual deviant with ties to the Russian very early in the campaign.  It's amazing how they could know all that stuff prior to all the women coming out.  Just saying. 

Curious what else is going to drop today, but a DDOS attack was launched earlier this morning from inside the US that dropped Wikileaks for an hour.  Twitter went offline for a while too.




Demonic? Seriously? LOL.... You must be wearing a double tin-foil hat today Tony.
2016-11-07 9:17 AM
in reply to: ejshowers

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by ejshowers
Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by spudone

Should I start calling you guys Truth Deniers? :-D

I don't have my head in the sand.  I just believe that Trump is worse.

 

Edit: and don't get me started on Assange.  His kind of "journalism" gets good people killed.

I'm not that old, but I remember when American journalists used to be like Assange.  Now they just take their talking points from the government and report what they're told to.  It's sad how we're creeping closer and closer to a third world dictatorship with state run media.  

As far as Trump being worse, I just don't see how anyone can make that argument.  Sure, he's said some bad words, but everything he's ever done was in his private and business life.  What Hillary has done has effected our entire nation and put us all at risk.  There's evidence to suggest that people have been killed based on her complete disregard for our nations secrets.
I try to keep things out of the religious spectrum for the most part here, but there are a lot of demonic influences over her and her campaign.  The stuff coming out lately about several people in her campaign going to spirit cooking events and the satanic, sadistic, and perverted pictures scattered throughout Podesta's house are freaking whacked out.
Even Beyonce the other day was wearing a satanic goats head ring during her performance for Hillary. 

I've always felt that Hillary was pure evil, but the I always thought it on a metaphorical level.  I'm starting to think it's true on a literal level as well.  

BTW, in the latest Wikileaks last night from the DNC there's talk of how they're going to label Trump as a sexual deviant with ties to the Russian very early in the campaign.  It's amazing how they could know all that stuff prior to all the women coming out.  Just saying. 

Curious what else is going to drop today, but a DDOS attack was launched earlier this morning from inside the US that dropped Wikileaks for an hour.  Twitter went offline for a while too.

Demonic? Seriously? LOL.... You must be wearing a double tin-foil hat today Tony.

Well, if you don't consider satanic ritual dinners as demonic then what would you consider them?

2016-11-07 9:24 AM
in reply to: #5180918

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Subject: RE: Election 2016
This topic doesn't warrant adult discussion outside of your alt-right or end-times forum. End of the line for me on this crazy talk...


2016-11-07 9:25 AM
in reply to: ejshowers

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by ejshowers This topic doesn't warrant adult discussion outside of your alt-right or end-times forum. End of the line for me on this crazy talk...

lol, head in sand confirmed. 

2016-11-07 10:13 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

I'm not that old, but I remember when American journalists used to be like Assange.

The only thing they had in common was that they'd both publish what they thought was right.  But if you go back to big names in American journalism, they vetted their sources, they respected the need to protect undercover agents and military personnel, and they did a lot of the hard work that no one wants to do to get headlines these days.

Assange is more like:

2016-11-07 10:19 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Election 2016
Market up bigly today expecting a Clinton victory. Dow up 306 and S&P up 40 right now. Betting markets also moved in her favor after the latest FBI letter.
2016-11-07 10:27 AM
in reply to: ejshowers

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by ejshowers Market up bigly today expecting a Clinton victory. Dow up 306 and S&P up 40 right now. Betting markets also moved in her favor after the latest FBI letter.

That is one thing that is somewhat conflicting for people.  The markets will stay propped up under Clinton by the government and Trump will let them fend for themselves which is how it should be.  The net of that though, is a pretty substantial drop in the markets being likely.

2016-11-07 10:33 AM
in reply to: tuwood

Master
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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by ejshowers Market up bigly today expecting a Clinton victory. Dow up 306 and S&P up 40 right now. Betting markets also moved in her favor after the latest FBI letter.

That is one thing that is somewhat conflicting for people.  The markets will stay propped up under Clinton by the government and Trump will let them fend for themselves which is how it should be.  The net of that though, is a pretty substantial drop in the markets being likely.

Trump isn't free market at all.  He's protectionist.  The market fears trade wars and tariffs *far* more than they fear the fed starting to raise interest rates.



2016-11-07 10:35 AM
in reply to: spudone

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by spudone

I'm not that old, but I remember when American journalists used to be like Assange.

The only thing they had in common was that they'd both publish what they thought was right.  But if you go back to big names in American journalism, they vetted their sources, they respected the need to protect undercover agents and military personnel, and they did a lot of the hard work that no one wants to do to get headlines these days.

Assange is more like:

I guess I don't see it this way because the media does do exactly what your image depicts when it comes to conservatives but they won't publish even the most blatantly bad and illegal things about the Democrats. 

For example they're all up in arms about wikileaks providing hacked emails and many are refusing to cover the story because they were illegally obtained.  Yet, it was front page and lead story all night when the illegally obtained/stolen Trump tax records were sent to them.  

If the media were fair and balanced then I'd be ok with more or less aggressiveness, but they are obviously just one sided and effectively an extension of DNC party which is not the role of the media in America.  

Just yesterday in the DNC Wiki dump there were numerous emails from CNN asking the DNC to provide questions and for other input on how to question GOP candidates.  It's as if they are working for the DNC which just isn't right. 

2016-11-07 10:37 AM
in reply to: spudone

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by spudone

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by ejshowers Market up bigly today expecting a Clinton victory. Dow up 306 and S&P up 40 right now. Betting markets also moved in her favor after the latest FBI letter.

That is one thing that is somewhat conflicting for people.  The markets will stay propped up under Clinton by the government and Trump will let them fend for themselves which is how it should be.  The net of that though, is a pretty substantial drop in the markets being likely.

Trump isn't free market at all.  He's protectionist.  The market fears trade wars and tariffs *far* more than they fear the fed starting to raise interest rates.

He is more accurately described as a fair trader.  He is for free trade, but when the free trade consists of us accepting products from foreign countries with zero tariffs or fees and they place large tariffs and fees in kid that is not free trade.

2016-11-07 10:41 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Election 2016
Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by spudone

I'm not that old, but I remember when American journalists used to be like Assange.

The only thing they had in common was that they'd both publish what they thought was right.  But if you go back to big names in American journalism, they vetted their sources, they respected the need to protect undercover agents and military personnel, and they did a lot of the hard work that no one wants to do to get headlines these days.

Assange is more like:

I guess I don't see it this way because the media does do exactly what your image depicts when it comes to conservatives but they won't publish even the most blatantly bad and illegal things about the Democrats. 

For example they're all up in arms about wikileaks providing hacked emails and many are refusing to cover the story because they were illegally obtained.  Yet, it was front page and lead story all night when the illegally obtained/stolen Trump tax records were sent to them.  

If the media were fair and balanced then I'd be ok with more or less aggressiveness, but they are obviously just one sided and effectively an extension of DNC party which is not the role of the media in America.  

Just yesterday in the DNC Wiki dump there were numerous emails from CNN asking the DNC to provide questions and for other input on how to question GOP candidates.  It's as if they are working for the DNC which just isn't right. 




We don't know how Trump's tax records were obtained. They easily could have been handed over by one of his ex-wives, all perfectly legal.
2016-11-07 10:42 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

We watch CNN, MSNBC, and FOX.................we laugh at how blatantly biased MSNBC is.  CNN is a bit less biased, and FOX, ie Megyn Kelly, has been the least biased.  Kelly hates Trump and it's clear on her show, so at least their is some balance on FOX. 

I don't know how anybody can watch MSNBC and not laugh out loud. 

It doesn't matter at this point......It's all over but the crying now. 

2016-11-07 10:46 AM
in reply to: ejshowers

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by ejshowers
Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by spudone

I'm not that old, but I remember when American journalists used to be like Assange.

The only thing they had in common was that they'd both publish what they thought was right.  But if you go back to big names in American journalism, they vetted their sources, they respected the need to protect undercover agents and military personnel, and they did a lot of the hard work that no one wants to do to get headlines these days.

Assange is more like:

I guess I don't see it this way because the media does do exactly what your image depicts when it comes to conservatives but they won't publish even the most blatantly bad and illegal things about the Democrats. 

For example they're all up in arms about wikileaks providing hacked emails and many are refusing to cover the story because they were illegally obtained.  Yet, it was front page and lead story all night when the illegally obtained/stolen Trump tax records were sent to them.  

If the media were fair and balanced then I'd be ok with more or less aggressiveness, but they are obviously just one sided and effectively an extension of DNC party which is not the role of the media in America.  

Just yesterday in the DNC Wiki dump there were numerous emails from CNN asking the DNC to provide questions and for other input on how to question GOP candidates.  It's as if they are working for the DNC which just isn't right. 

We don't know how Trump's tax records were obtained. They easily could have been handed over by one of his ex-wives, all perfectly legal.

We don't know how Podesta's emails were obtained either.  Could have been an IT worker in the campaign who had access to them.  Perfectly legal. 



2016-11-07 10:52 AM
in reply to: 0

Master
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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by tuwood

I guess I don't see it this way because the media does do exactly what your image depicts when it comes to conservatives but they won't publish even the most blatantly bad and illegal things about the Democrats. 

For example they're all up in arms about wikileaks providing hacked emails and many are refusing to cover the story because they were illegally obtained.  Yet, it was front page and lead story all night when the illegally obtained/stolen Trump tax records were sent to them.  

If the media were fair and balanced then I'd be ok with more or less aggressiveness, but they are obviously just one sided and effectively an extension of DNC party which is not the role of the media in America.  

Just yesterday in the DNC Wiki dump there were numerous emails from CNN asking the DNC to provide questions and for other input on how to question GOP candidates.  It's as if they are working for the DNC which just isn't right. 

Wait, we were talking about journalists before Assange, like Dan Rather's generation, ya?  And there's a big difference between Trump's taxes and classified military material.

Anyhow, Assange himself has even mentioned that Wikileaks probably has blood on its hands and that he feels it is worth it.  Who is he to decide?
  Esp when most (all?) of their leaks don't even involve his own country.  At least Snowden could be considered a whistleblower, although I think he was also unleashing a firehose when something small would've been sufficient.



Edited by spudone 2016-11-07 10:53 AM
2016-11-07 10:54 AM
in reply to: spudone

Master
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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Btw I'm laughing that my animated gif from Airplane is now covering this page.  Great start to a Monday

2016-11-07 10:54 AM
in reply to: ejshowers

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by ejshowers Market up bigly today expecting a Clinton victory. Dow up 306 and S&P up 40 right now. Betting markets also moved in her favor after the latest FBI letter.

After Trump's surge in the polls last week I considered parking my investments into a high interest savings account until after the election.  

Did anyone play it safe and get out of the markets?

I do think Clinton will win and the markets will rebound on Wednesday, but I have read predictions of an estimated 10% overall decline if Trump wins, 3% of which has already occurred over the past few weeks and a further 5-7% drop shortly after election day.

2016-11-07 11:13 AM
in reply to: Scott71

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by Scott71

Originally posted by ejshowers Market up bigly today expecting a Clinton victory. Dow up 306 and S&P up 40 right now. Betting markets also moved in her favor after the latest FBI letter.

After Trump's surge in the polls last week I considered parking my investments into a high interest savings account until after the election.  

Did anyone play it safe and get out of the markets?

I do think Clinton will win and the markets will rebound on Wednesday, but I have read predictions of an estimated 10% overall decline if Trump wins, 3% of which has already occurred over the past few weeks and a further 5-7% drop shortly after election day.

What's that?  Like 1 1/2%?  

I find it dangerous to try to time the markets, especially with something like a 401K, so we're just riding out whatever chitstorm hits.

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