I hope you are right, if it stops raining tonight I think there will be time for the debris to clear out and the current to slow down.  Even if it's a bit high I don't see why it won't happen, it's the current that we need to worry about and if the current is still strong I hope they can revise the course and make it entirely downstream.  Here is a video of the river today from someone doing the race off their facebook page.

https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001636576292&sk=wall

Looking at trends. Nothing scientific. I just looked at past data for multiple locations up and down the river and gave a rough estimate based on the trends. 

Hey, where did you find your number?  I couldn't find it when I looked over the website.

Enter your last name... I am 1022. One of 204 in that AG! Yikes.

Anybody else in the M45-49 AG here?

Yep, 1113.  Assuming the swim happens, should be an interesting start!

Use the search I included above and just put in your AG. in the top right corner of the result will be the total number.

#913 M35-39 here.  Good Luck!

Latest video of the river can be found here

https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000271145854

It's official -THE SWIM IS CANCELED    

T2 will be exactly the same.  We'll be starting on the bike from T1.  1 or a few at a time, every few seconds (they will say the gap).  Since you're asking about pacing, don't do anything different.  Bike effort/pacing should be about the same, you'll just be dry at the start.  Plan on about the same run.  You'll just have more energy later in it.  Most people end up slowing down or walking, so you'll more likely hit what you're trying for.

Yeah, swim is cancelled, but they made the right call.  It's moving really quick edge to edge.  We'd be hiking in the trees to make progress upriver.  Kayaks would have to work hard just to hold position.  I did see some things floating out in the water.  Any rain we do get would make things worse.  The area around the river is very saturated.  As soon as you step off pavement anywhere it's pretty squishy.

Time to figure out the adjusted bike route.  After driving the old version, I see what people are saying, but still think there was a lot of whining in other places.  Now I can say that I do indeed ride in areas with those pavement conditions.  It's just not quite as hilly as here.  I'm psyched for those!