Anyone ever beat McMillan marathon time calculator prediction?

Yes, another one of those threads when someone entering the taper phase for a marathon is hoping for the best. But, would like to know peoples experience who have used the McMillan calculator for a full stand alone Mary. I have read input where people have said the calculator hit on the head and even some who ran over the calculated time, but haven't seen too many people say they beat it.

My situation is that, based on the races I put into the calculator, I am coming out at anywhere from 4:28-4:35. I am shooting to BQ, which for my age and gender (60, female) is 4:25, but hoping for around 4:22. I have followed Hal Higdon's Advanced Marathon Program with only a few slight adjustments and today did my last long run before the Mary on June 1. I have run for 33 years, but the last Mary I ran was 23 years ago in which I BQ'd. (Don't check the logs because I don't log my miles online--barely get them on my calendar each day). I have listed my pros and cons for beating the calculator below. Happy to read your positive and negative (but kind) input.

Pros--
1. Train and race in warm/hot (depending on your perspective) and humid (no debating this one) conditions in Key West. Race will be in San Diego which will be (based on averages) 20 degrees cooler than it is here when I train race with the humidity being at least 20% lower. I have looked at some information online for adjustments due to heat and humidity, like this one: http://maximumperformancerunning.blogspot.com/2013/07/temperature-d... and if I adjust my race times used in the McMillan calc, that would put me easily hitting my BQ goal time.

2. Lost 6 lbs. ( 115 to 109 (5'4")) since my HM back in January, and have gotten faster but not raced over 5K since losing all of the weight. Not exactly my BQ weight of 104 from 23 years ago, but a significant drop and I feel good. Hoping for another lb loss but realize I'll probably put on a lb or so in the last week.

3. Highly motivated, which I realize most people are that run these distances, but this is for my son. He passed away from CF(Cystic Fibrosis) 10 years ago and this is in his honor and raising money for CF. The race is the day after his B-Day and SD was "our" town. I was stationed there in the Navy and he not only went to high school there but also lived there longer than anywhere else in his 27 years. So, this is very special to me.

Cons--

1. Traveling clear across the country, so routine change and time zone could be an issue. But, going out on a Thursday morn with race on Sunday, so hope jet lag, etc., is ironed out by then.

2. The big one, HILLS. Anyone who has ever been to KW knows we don't have them and anyone who has run or heard about this Rock 'n Roll course in SD knows they do. Here's the course map: http://runrocknroll.competitor.com/san-diego/course Significant downhill from 4.5 mile-8 and then some rolling hills until almost mile 20 and then uphill 300 ft to a bit past mile 21. Then another significant downhill from around 23 to the end. EGAD. I don't even want to look at it. My "hill" repeats here have be over an overpass over water that might be 40, max 50, feet high. What I am hoping is that the hills and my lack of real training on hills will not undo the advantage I think I will have from the temp/humidity issue. (Didn't do treadmill work because last year developed plantar fasciitis from the treadmill)

That's it in a nutshell. Appreciate any experienced words of wisdom you might want to share.

Edited by topolina 2014-05-11 5:54 PM