General Discussion Triathlon Talk » Anyone ever beat McMillan marathon time calculator prediction? Rss Feed  
Moderators: k9car363, alicefoeller Reply
2014-05-11 5:53 PM

New user
560
5002525
Key West
Subject: Anyone ever beat McMillan marathon time calculator prediction?
Yes, another one of those threads when someone entering the taper phase for a marathon is hoping for the best. But, would like to know peoples experience who have used the McMillan calculator for a full stand alone Mary. I have read input where people have said the calculator hit on the head and even some who ran over the calculated time, but haven't seen too many people say they beat it.

My situation is that, based on the races I put into the calculator, I am coming out at anywhere from 4:28-4:35. I am shooting to BQ, which for my age and gender (60, female) is 4:25, but hoping for around 4:22. I have followed Hal Higdon's Advanced Marathon Program with only a few slight adjustments and today did my last long run before the Mary on June 1. I have run for 33 years, but the last Mary I ran was 23 years ago in which I BQ'd. (Don't check the logs because I don't log my miles online--barely get them on my calendar each day). I have listed my pros and cons for beating the calculator below. Happy to read your positive and negative (but kind) input.

Pros--
1. Train and race in warm/hot (depending on your perspective) and humid (no debating this one) conditions in Key West. Race will be in San Diego which will be (based on averages) 20 degrees cooler than it is here when I train race with the humidity being at least 20% lower. I have looked at some information online for adjustments due to heat and humidity, like this one: http://maximumperformancerunning.blogspot.com/2013/07/temperature-d... and if I adjust my race times used in the McMillan calc, that would put me easily hitting my BQ goal time.

2. Lost 6 lbs. ( 115 to 109 (5'4")) since my HM back in January, and have gotten faster but not raced over 5K since losing all of the weight. Not exactly my BQ weight of 104 from 23 years ago, but a significant drop and I feel good. Hoping for another lb loss but realize I'll probably put on a lb or so in the last week.

3. Highly motivated, which I realize most people are that run these distances, but this is for my son. He passed away from CF(Cystic Fibrosis) 10 years ago and this is in his honor and raising money for CF. The race is the day after his B-Day and SD was "our" town. I was stationed there in the Navy and he not only went to high school there but also lived there longer than anywhere else in his 27 years. So, this is very special to me.

Cons--

1. Traveling clear across the country, so routine change and time zone could be an issue. But, going out on a Thursday morn with race on Sunday, so hope jet lag, etc., is ironed out by then.

2. The big one, HILLS. Anyone who has ever been to KW knows we don't have them and anyone who has run or heard about this Rock 'n Roll course in SD knows they do. Here's the course map: http://runrocknroll.competitor.com/san-diego/course Significant downhill from 4.5 mile-8 and then some rolling hills until almost mile 20 and then uphill 300 ft to a bit past mile 21. Then another significant downhill from around 23 to the end. EGAD. I don't even want to look at it. My "hill" repeats here have be over an overpass over water that might be 40, max 50, feet high. What I am hoping is that the hills and my lack of real training on hills will not undo the advantage I think I will have from the temp/humidity issue. (Didn't do treadmill work because last year developed plantar fasciitis from the treadmill)

That's it in a nutshell. Appreciate any experienced words of wisdom you might want to share.

Edited by topolina 2014-05-11 5:54 PM


2014-05-11 6:16 PM
in reply to: 0

User image


928
50010010010010025
Subject: RE: Anyone ever beat McMillan marathon time calculator prediction?
You don't say what your training has been like or how much mileage you do...in my observation of many marathoners, that's the biggest predictor in whether you can hold close your half-marathon pace for the full marathon. Generally people who do lower mileage (in the range of 40 miles per week or less) tend to slow down more than the calculator predicts.

I do know people who have "beaten" the calculator, but generally that meant that they "raced" the half marathon below their fastest potential. This may be true in your case. I also know a couple 60+ marathoners that seem to be be able to hold close to their half-marathon pace for longer than younger runners, perhaps partly because of this reason.

One thing to keep in mind-- because of the conditions of the course and the day, you may or may not get your BQ time in that marathon. But you may be able to in a different marathon soon after. I know a guy who is retired, in his early 70s, and just keeps getting "faster" with age (not faster in general but faster relative to his contemporaries). He does lots of cardiovascular exercise per week, including long walking warmups and cooldowns before his runs. He was able to BQ for the first time at the age of 70. He ran Boston this year and finished in the heat of the day with just under 4:25 (good enough for another BQ). He ran another marathon two weeks later, figured he'd take it easy and go for about 4:30-- ended up running "casually" with the crowd and finished in 4:10. So there's some inspiration for you.

Edited by jennifer_runs 2014-05-11 6:19 PM
2014-05-11 6:54 PM
in reply to: jennifer_runs

New user
560
5002525
Key West
Subject: RE: Anyone ever beat McMillan marathon time calculator prediction?
Thanks. I stuck to the Higdon Advanced 1 plan and the mileage in that. The link: http://www.halhigdon.com/training/51141/Marathon-Advanced-1-Trainin... Highest mileage this last week at 53. Up until the last 6 weeks, I did replace the short run after a long run Sunday with a long swim, 45 minutes or more. But otherwise, other than a few races thrown in, stuck to that Plan.
2014-05-11 7:47 PM
in reply to: topolina

User image


928
50010010010010025
Subject: RE: Anyone ever beat McMillan marathon time calculator prediction?
That's a good program (sorry I missed that in your first post) and I think you could have a good chance given your situation. But it really will depend on the day and how you react to that terrain. Don't try to kill the hills-- keep your heart rate and breathing under control and get it back on the downhills.

Good luck and keep at it. And come back and let us know.

Thanks for sharing the story about your son.
2014-05-11 7:51 PM
in reply to: topolina


1055
10002525
Subject: RE: Anyone ever beat McMillan marathon time calculator prediction?
It's very rare to hear of someone beating their McMillan predicted time. Most of the discussion I've read suggests that that the calculator assumes a very an experienced, high mpw runner. It assumes quite a bit of muscular endurance based on the lack of drop off of speed as the distance increases.

Based on my times, it said I should be able to run a 3:17 marathon and I've only managed 3:27 (on a flat fast course). I run 25ish mpw during the tri season and 45ish durring the run season. If you're consistently running over 50. . . maybe. . . but quite doubtful.


2014-05-11 8:15 PM
in reply to: #4994731

User image

Pro
5169
50001002525
Burbs
Subject: RE: Anyone ever beat McMillan marathon time calculator prediction?
Not even close . My HM PR is 1:44 and MCMillan predicts a 3:40 marathon. I went 3:48 at Philly (not flat but not hilly) and had followed Higdon's Advanced I (two weeks at 55 miles, most around 40-50). Perfect weather in race day too and I felt like I had a great race


2014-05-11 8:17 PM
in reply to: #4994773

User image

Pro
5169
50001002525
Burbs
Subject: RE: Anyone ever beat McMillan marathon time calculator prediction?
That said --- good luck ! Sounds like you have marathoning experience but make sure you don't go out too fast and blow up. Also -- what distances are you basing the prediction on ?
2014-05-11 9:45 PM
in reply to: topolina

User image

Extreme Veteran
1001
1000
Highlands Ranch, Colorado
Subject: RE: Anyone ever beat McMillan marathon time calculator prediction?
Two years ago I ran a 1:12:22 Ten mile race.

Based upon that McMillan predicted a 1:36:32 HM and 3:23:08 Marathon. I ran a 1:36:25 HM and a 3:23:05 Marathon, pretty darn accurate for me.
2014-05-11 10:10 PM
in reply to: 0

User image

Master
3204
20001000100100
ann arbor, michigan
Subject: RE: Anyone ever beat McMillan marathon time calculator prediction?
In early 2011 I ran a 3:04 marathon. The McMillan calculator, based on an early 2010, 1:32 HM predicted a 3:13 so I beat it significantly. However, I had put in A LOT of aerobic work and had hit every single training run in the build for the race (many of them on the treadmill as i live in MI...). It was also a flat, fast course, and a cool overcast day. I also started slow and ran the first 14 miles very, very easy and that left me able to really push for the last five

Edited by wannabefaster 2014-05-11 10:11 PM
2014-05-11 10:15 PM
in reply to: topolina

User image

Coach
9166
5000200020001002525
Stairway to Seven
Subject: RE: Anyone ever beat McMillan marathon time calculator prediction?
If the input time is from an old race and/or you've lost significant weight then you'll probabaly run faster than the calculator predicts.

I wouldn't calling it "beating" the calculator...it's not a competition. It's just a fatigue rate, and assumes you're well trained for the distance. If you "beat" the calculator, that's awesome. Then you shoudl go back and run the shorter distance again after your race and I bet you'll set a PR for that. (ie you'll run it faster than previously...and close to the time your new marathon pace would predict based on the calculator.

It's physiology...you don't "beat" it, you work with it and find out where your next place to improve might be.
2014-05-12 9:05 AM
in reply to: AdventureBear

New user
560
5002525
Key West
Subject: RE: Anyone ever beat McMillan marathon time calculator prediction?
Thanks again. When I used the word "beat" I just meant run under the predicted time. So, maybe not the most accurate word. The times I used under McMillan were from a HM (from back in January before I lost weight or put in most of my work for this Mary), a 10K, a 7 mile extrapolated to 10K, and a couple of 5Ks. The HM finish time was slower than it would have been had I not had foot and calf cramps I had to stretch out because of too small shoes and wearing compression socks for the first time. So, finished with an average 10:00 m/m, but pace up to mile 11 was 9:40. Again though, long time ago. 10K and 7 mile times were at 9:30 pace, both warm races and 5K's at 9:00, also warm and humid races.

Anyway, appreciate all of the input and know it will be close. Since I know I won't be able to run negative splits because of the uphill at the end of the race, was going to go out conservatively at 9:50 and try to hold that through at least mile 16. Then that leaves me room to slow, if needed, by as much as 30 sec a mile for the last 10.2 miles and still run under the 4:25. (Unless I did the math wrong).

Not the end of the world either way, but it would be nice to BQ again after so many years.


2014-05-12 12:42 PM
in reply to: topolina

User image

Veteran
360
1001001002525
Waukegan, IL
Subject: RE: Anyone ever beat McMillan marathon time calculator prediction?
When I use McMillan, I almost always go faster than his predicted time if the race time I enter is for a longer race than the one I want a prediction for (like using a HM to predict a 5k). When I use a shorter race time to predict a longer race time, I almost always go over the prediction.

Example, I ran a marathon last weekend and finished in 3:05:23 (so close to a BQ it hurts!!!). My McMillan predicted time for that race was 2:56.

Guess I'm better at short distances.

It depends on the person. Good luck on the marathon!!!
2014-05-12 5:43 PM
in reply to: The Chupacabra

User image


928
50010010010010025
Subject: RE: Anyone ever beat McMillan marathon time calculator prediction?
2014-05-13 6:43 AM
in reply to: jennifer_runs

New user
560
5002525
Key West
Subject: RE: Anyone ever beat McMillan marathon time calculator prediction?
Originally posted by jennifer_runs

Do this in your hilly race:

http://triathlon.competitor.com/2014/05/training/efficient-running-...


Thanks, that makes sense. I actually used to practice that approach when I raced hills in my younger years. I just haven't done it in a while down here in the flat lands. I also usually just try to look down about two feet or so in front of me while going up hill, so that I don't get inside my head too much about the HILL. One step at a time. Appreciate all he good input
2014-05-13 2:25 PM
in reply to: The Chupacabra

User image

Coach
9166
5000200020001002525
Stairway to Seven
Subject: RE: Anyone ever beat McMillan marathon time calculator prediction?
Originally posted by The Chupacabra

When I use McMillan, I almost always go faster than his predicted time if the race time I enter is for a longer race than the one I want a prediction for (like using a HM to predict a 5k). When I use a shorter race time to predict a longer race time, I almost always go over the prediction.

Example, I ran a marathon last weekend and finished in 3:05:23 (so close to a BQ it hurts!!!). My McMillan predicted time for that race was 2:56.

Guess I'm better at short distances.

It depends on the person. Good luck on the marathon!!!


How do your races over an hour compare? 10miler vs. half, vs. full for example ?

How does your 5k compare to your 10k ?
2014-05-13 10:35 PM
in reply to: topolina

User image

Master
2563
20005002525
University Park, MD
Subject: RE: Anyone ever beat McMillan marathon time calculator prediction?
I haven't beaten McMillan for a marathon. In my most recent marathon cycle I was running high mileage (80+ mpw for the peak weeks), in the range where chances of matching the calculator should be fairly good. But I did not. My HM tune-up 10 weeks out predicted a 2:49, my 10-miler tune-up 1 week out predicted a 2:47, and I got 2:51, finishing strong. But I was not surprised - I know that my times for longer distances tend to be weaker than for shorter distances, so I factor that into the prediction.

Good luck with your race.


New Thread
General Discussion Triathlon Talk » Anyone ever beat McMillan marathon time calculator prediction? Rss Feed  
RELATED POSTS

How close is McMillan calculator (HM to Mary)

Started by rjrankin83
Views: 1640 Posts: 4

2012-12-03 8:40 AM AG Runner

Oh, oh! I want in -- marathon prediction time

Started by trishie
Views: 1463 Posts: 18

2012-03-06 9:37 PM twquigmd

Swimming Equivalent of McMillan Running Calculator?

Started by mrpetey
Views: 4718 Posts: 22

2013-05-20 1:50 AM AdventureBear

Half Mary time - based on mcmillan running calculator Pages: 1 2

Started by kristinc0916
Views: 3413 Posts: 27

2010-04-09 11:41 PM BigDH

McMillan Calculator

Started by Concretechris
Views: 1792 Posts: 11

2008-04-24 12:03 PM Micawber
RELATED ARTICLES
date : August 5, 2010
comments : 0
I had hoped to break 1:30 this year but now would be happy just to break 1:34. My question is in my limited time I have left do I concentrate on speed work or endurance?
 
date : September 24, 2008
author : Amy Kuitse
comments : 0
I am running Boston in April and Ironman Lake Placid is in July. I have been told that it is ambitious to think about doing an IM so close to a marathon due to the recovery time. Any suggestions?