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2016-11-02 7:47 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Champion
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Alabama
Subject: RE: Polls
Originally posted by tuwood

RCP No Tossups as of this morning:




For some reason my computer blocks your picture and all I get is an "X".

I made my own pic.

It was trending this way anyway but this also reflects the latest email scandal.....people are just sick of scandals.

So the no-toss up map really just says the race is within the margins of error of polling data....but it we ignore the margins of error this is what you get.



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2016-11-03 8:16 AM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Oakville
Subject: RE: Polls

Uh oh, on October 30th 538 predicted that the Cubs had a smaller chance of wining than Trump.  The Cubs beat the odds.... will Trump be next?

2016-11-03 5:50 PM
in reply to: Scott71

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Pro
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Omaha, NE
Subject: RE: Polls

Originally posted by Scott71

Uh oh, on October 30th 538 predicted that the Cubs had a smaller chance of wining than Trump.  The Cubs beat the odds.... will Trump be next?

I'm beginning to reassess my confidence in Nate.   He may be onto something. 

 

 

2016-11-07 3:55 PM
in reply to: tuwood

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Omaha, NE
Subject: RE: Polls

OK here's the final polls for the election (4 way race), we need to figure out "what the polls are saying" so we can figure out if they're accurate or not.

Here's the latest polls I can find:
Rasmussen:  Clinton +2
LATimes: Trump +5
Bloomberg: Clinton +3
IBD/TIPP: Trump +2
CBSNews: Clinton +4
FoxNews: Clinton +4
ABC/Washpost: Clinton +4
Monmouth: Clinton +6
NBCNews: Clinton +6

RCP Average Clinton +3.2
538 Average Clinton +3.3

I think it's fairly safe to say if Trump wins then the "polls are off".

Any other thoughts?

2016-11-07 6:28 PM
in reply to: tuwood

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Master
2800
2000500100100100
Minnetonka, Minnesota
Subject: RE: Polls
Originally posted by tuwood

OK here's the final polls for the election (4 way race), we need to figure out "what the polls are saying" so we can figure out if they're accurate or not.

Here's the latest polls I can find:
Rasmussen:  Clinton +2
LATimes: Trump +5
Bloomberg: Clinton +3
IBD/TIPP: Trump +2
CBSNews: Clinton +4
FoxNews: Clinton +4
ABC/Washpost: Clinton +4
Monmouth: Clinton +6
NBCNews: Clinton +6

RCP Average Clinton +3.2
538 Average Clinton +3.3

I think it's fairly safe to say if Trump wins then the "polls are off".

Any other thoughts?




538 has moved Clinton to about a 70% chance of winning from around 64% earlier today. The latest polls have broken for her in general.
2016-11-07 6:42 PM
in reply to: ejshowers

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Champion
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Alabama
Subject: RE: Polls
At this stage of the game polls are meaningless. As long as both sides feel there is a chance to win they will vote.

The only real questions left is turn out of likely voters and have voters been truthful with pollsters. Both of these could swing the vote dramatically from the polls.

Gonna be a fun night watching the polls tomorrow.

Winning or losing who vows to be here tomorrow night to gloat or eat crow? I will be here ready to say "I told you so so hah ha ha" or "well crap the country is going down the crapper and it is your fault." :-)

Good luck.


2016-11-07 6:49 PM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Omaha, NE
Subject: RE: Polls

Originally posted by Rogillio At this stage of the game polls are meaningless. As long as both sides feel there is a chance to win they will vote. The only real questions left is turn out of likely voters and have voters been truthful with pollsters. Both of these could swing the vote dramatically from the polls. Gonna be a fun night watching the polls tomorrow. Winning or losing who vows to be here tomorrow night to gloat or eat crow? I will be here ready to say "I told you so so hah ha ha" or "well crap the country is going down the crapper and it is your fault." :-) Good luck.

I'll be here for sure.  I know I joke about it being guaranteed Trump, but I fully recognize that Hillary can win if the turnout is similar to what several of the pollsters have predicted.
If the turnout comes up short for her (as it's appearing to in early voting) then it's going to likely be a rough night for Hillary.

 

2016-11-07 7:19 PM
in reply to: tuwood

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Master
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Subject: RE: Polls

I will not mope or gloat.  I know there's a big rift between candidates but I'm glad everyone on this board cares enough to be involved and obviously cares about the country.

2016-11-08 9:58 AM
in reply to: spudone

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Champion
15208
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Southern Chicago Suburbs, IL
Silver member
Subject: RE: Polls

Originally posted by spudone

I will not mope or gloat.  I know there's a big rift between candidates but I'm glad everyone on this board cares enough to be involved and obviously cares about the country.

Posted this on my FaceBook this morning. 

And it isn't JUST about the Presidential election. There are SO many other items on ballots that have a DIRECT impact on YOUR daily lives. Constitutional Amendments. Ballot Initiatives. Local candidates. Please, do your duty as a citizen. Exercise your right. Get out and vote! You will thank yourself tomorrow.

2016-11-08 10:03 AM
in reply to: crowny2

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Pro
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Omaha, NE
Subject: RE: Polls

Originally posted by crowny2

Originally posted by spudone

I will not mope or gloat.  I know there's a big rift between candidates but I'm glad everyone on this board cares enough to be involved and obviously cares about the country.

Posted this on my FaceBook this morning. 

And it isn't JUST about the Presidential election. There are SO many other items on ballots that have a DIRECT impact on YOUR daily lives. Constitutional Amendments. Ballot Initiatives. Local candidates. Please, do your duty as a citizen. Exercise your right. Get out and vote! You will thank yourself tomorrow.

Amen to that.  I voted to repeal the death penalty in Nebraska.  That's a big one for me. 

2016-11-08 10:15 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Champion
15208
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Southern Chicago Suburbs, IL
Silver member
Subject: RE: Polls

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by crowny2

Originally posted by spudone

I will not mope or gloat.  I know there's a big rift between candidates but I'm glad everyone on this board cares enough to be involved and obviously cares about the country.

Posted this on my FaceBook this morning. 

And it isn't JUST about the Presidential election. There are SO many other items on ballots that have a DIRECT impact on YOUR daily lives. Constitutional Amendments. Ballot Initiatives. Local candidates. Please, do your duty as a citizen. Exercise your right. Get out and vote! You will thank yourself tomorrow.

Amen to that.  I voted to repeal the death penalty in Nebraska.  That's a big one for me. 

Nicely done. 

We have a Constitutional Amendment on the ballot in IL that I voted no for.  On initial read it sounded like a good idea but it really isn't something that belongs in the Constitution.  Just a bad idea. 



2016-11-08 10:24 AM
in reply to: crowny2

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Pro
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Omaha, NE
Subject: RE: Polls

Originally posted by crowny2

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by crowny2

Originally posted by spudone

I will not mope or gloat.  I know there's a big rift between candidates but I'm glad everyone on this board cares enough to be involved and obviously cares about the country.

Posted this on my FaceBook this morning. 

And it isn't JUST about the Presidential election. There are SO many other items on ballots that have a DIRECT impact on YOUR daily lives. Constitutional Amendments. Ballot Initiatives. Local candidates. Please, do your duty as a citizen. Exercise your right. Get out and vote! You will thank yourself tomorrow.

Amen to that.  I voted to repeal the death penalty in Nebraska.  That's a big one for me. 

Nicely done. 

We have a Constitutional Amendment on the ballot in IL that I voted no for.  On initial read it sounded like a good idea but it really isn't something that belongs in the Constitution.  Just a bad idea. 

I often hate the wording on ballot initiatives.  For the death penalty one in Nebraska they passed a law to abolish the death penalty and a group was challenging that law to try and abolish the new law (that abolished the death penalty)

So here's the wording on the ballot where you have to vote retain in order to abolish the death penalty.  lol:

Referendum ordered by Petition of the People

Referendum No. 426

A vote to “Retain” will eliminate the death penalty and change the maximum penalty for the crime of murder in the first degree to life imprisonment by retaining Legislative Bill 268, passed in 2015 by the First Session of the 104th Nebraska Legislature.

A vote to “Repeal” will keep the death penalty as a possible penalty for the crime of murder in the first degree by repealing Legislative Bill 268, passed in 2015 by the First Session of the 104th Nebraska Legislature.

The purpose of Legislative Bill 268, passed by the First Session of the 104th Nebraska Legislature in 2015, is to eliminate the death penalty and change the maximum penalty for the crime of murder in the first degree to life imprisonment. Shall Legislative Bill 268 be repealed?

( ) Retain

( ) Repeal

2016-11-08 10:39 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Champion
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Southern Chicago Suburbs, IL
Silver member
Subject: RE: Polls

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by crowny2

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by crowny2

Originally posted by spudone

I will not mope or gloat.  I know there's a big rift between candidates but I'm glad everyone on this board cares enough to be involved and obviously cares about the country.

Posted this on my FaceBook this morning. 

And it isn't JUST about the Presidential election. There are SO many other items on ballots that have a DIRECT impact on YOUR daily lives. Constitutional Amendments. Ballot Initiatives. Local candidates. Please, do your duty as a citizen. Exercise your right. Get out and vote! You will thank yourself tomorrow.

Amen to that.  I voted to repeal the death penalty in Nebraska.  That's a big one for me. 

Nicely done. 

We have a Constitutional Amendment on the ballot in IL that I voted no for.  On initial read it sounded like a good idea but it really isn't something that belongs in the Constitution.  Just a bad idea. 

I often hate the wording on ballot initiatives.  For the death penalty one in Nebraska they passed a law to abolish the death penalty and a group was challenging that law to try and abolish the new law (that abolished the death penalty)

So here's the wording on the ballot where you have to vote retain in order to abolish the death penalty.  lol:

Referendum ordered by Petition of the People

Referendum No. 426

A vote to “Retain” will eliminate the death penalty and change the maximum penalty for the crime of murder in the first degree to life imprisonment by retaining Legislative Bill 268, passed in 2015 by the First Session of the 104th Nebraska Legislature.

A vote to “Repeal” will keep the death penalty as a possible penalty for the crime of murder in the first degree by repealing Legislative Bill 268, passed in 2015 by the First Session of the 104th Nebraska Legislature.

The purpose of Legislative Bill 268, passed by the First Session of the 104th Nebraska Legislature in 2015, is to eliminate the death penalty and change the maximum penalty for the crime of murder in the first degree to life imprisonment. Shall Legislative Bill 268 be repealed?

( ) Retain

( ) Repeal

Good Grief. That's not confusing at all.

The Constitutional Amendment here would have made it unconstitutional to use money ear marked for roads and transportation infrastructure on anything other than that.  On the face it sounds like a good idea, but it shoe horns the spending in the future and in reality that is NOT something that should be in the Constitution.  The Constitution should be broad enough that most future issues are dealt with based on the wording.  And I don't care that 38 other states have something similar in their Constitutions.  Wrong is wrong.

2016-11-08 12:37 PM
in reply to: 0

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Master
5557
50005002525
Subject: RE: Polls

I often hate the wording on ballot initiatives.

Yeah my default answer is "no" on initiatives.

For me to vote "yes", they have to:

a) Show me how they're going to pay for it.  Yes I can read a ledger.
b) Be legally well written so the thing won't spend the next 10 years in court.
c) Be something I actually support and not just catering to a special interest.



Edited by spudone 2016-11-08 12:37 PM
2016-11-08 3:37 PM
in reply to: spudone

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Expert
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Middle River, Maryland
Bronze member
Subject: RE: Polls

Originally posted by spudone

I often hate the wording on ballot initiatives.

Yeah my default answer is "no" on initiatives.

For me to vote "yes", they have to:

a) Show me how they're going to pay for it.  Yes I can read a ledger.
b) Be legally well written so the thing won't spend the next 10 years in court.
c) Be something I actually support and not just catering to a special interest.

We typically have about 6-10 referendums on whether our munincipalities can issue bonds for road, parks, waterways, schools (all on different referendums).  i mean, it sounds good, but I totaled up everything and it was like $2 billion in bonds on an annual operating revenue of just over $3 billion.  Good grief.

2016-11-08 3:40 PM
in reply to: spudone

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Champion
15208
500050005000100100
Southern Chicago Suburbs, IL
Silver member
Subject: RE: Polls

Originally posted by spudone

I often hate the wording on ballot initiatives.

Yeah my default answer is "no" on initiatives.

For me to vote "yes", they have to:

a) Show me how they're going to pay for it.  Yes I can read a ledger.
b) Be legally well written so the thing won't spend the next 10 years in court.
c) Be something I actually support and not just catering to a special interest.

Unless they word it as a double negative kind of crap like they did in Nebraska. 



2016-11-09 1:36 PM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Elite
3515
20001000500
Romeoville, Il
Subject: RE: Polls
Originally posted by Rogillio

At this stage of the game polls are meaningless. As long as both sides feel there is a chance to win they will vote.

The only real questions left is turn out of likely voters and have voters been truthful with pollsters. Both of these could swing the vote dramatically from the polls.

Gonna be a fun night watching the polls tomorrow.

Winning or losing who vows to be here tomorrow night to gloat or eat crow? I will be here ready to say "I told you so so hah ha ha" or "well crap the country is going down the crapper and it is your fault." :-)

Good luck.


with you on the "I told you so" lol!
2016-11-09 1:46 PM
in reply to: Meulen

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Pro
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Subject: RE: Polls

Originally posted by Meulen
Originally posted by Rogillio At this stage of the game polls are meaningless. As long as both sides feel there is a chance to win they will vote. The only real questions left is turn out of likely voters and have voters been truthful with pollsters. Both of these could swing the vote dramatically from the polls. Gonna be a fun night watching the polls tomorrow. Winning or losing who vows to be here tomorrow night to gloat or eat crow? I will be here ready to say "I told you so so hah ha ha" or "well crap the country is going down the crapper and it is your fault." :-) Good luck.
with you on the "I told you so" lol!

I'm with you on the "ha ha ha" 

2016-11-10 11:48 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Alabama
Subject: RE: Polls
ABC tracking poll now has Hillary up by 9 points!

;-)
2016-11-10 2:25 PM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Pro
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Omaha, NE
Subject: RE: Polls

Originally posted by Rogillio ABC tracking poll now has Hillary up by 9 points! ;-)

Trump should be dropping out any day now. 

 

2016-11-11 8:20 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Elite
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Romeoville, Il
Subject: RE: Polls
Crickets...


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