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2020-08-31 11:19 AM
in reply to: Rogillio


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Subject: RE: Defunding the police
I don't know, but that election is a total toss-up in my eyes. It looks like everyone's doing their best NOT to win. The Democrats chose the senile, handsy-feely, moderately Republican establishment dinosaur Biden as a candidate and nobody but a couple rich white suburban types actually supports him, and the Republican strategy is only aimed at Trump's most hardcore supporters, and is likely to sway away moderate Republicans to the side of Biden.

It's really a crapshow and the only solace in that is that, at least, they'll all be wayyy to old to campaign in 2024.


2020-08-31 2:01 PM
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Subject: RE: Defunding the police

Trump in a walk.  The Dems have overplayed their hand once again with all of the unrest.  They learned absolutely nothing from 2016.

I always get a kick out of the loudmouthed protestors and rioters proclaiming they are "the people" and "the people are speaking".  No, you knuckleheads, "the people" are busy going to work each day and raising their families.  They are more sick of your whiny BS today then they were in 2016.



Edited by Left Brain 2020-08-31 2:03 PM
2020-09-01 6:38 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Defunding the police
Originally posted by Left Brain

Trump in a walk.  The Dems have overplayed their hand once again with all of the unrest.  They learned absolutely nothing from 2016.

I always get a kick out of the loudmouthed protestors and rioters proclaiming they are "the people" and "the people are speaking".  No, you knuckleheads, "the people" are busy going to work each day and raising their families.  They are more sick of your whiny BS today then they were in 2016.




It's amusing to watch someone campaign for "fire fighter of the year" while standing there pouring gas on the fire.

2020-09-01 9:15 AM
in reply to: marcag

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Subject: RE: Defunding the police

Originally posted by marcag
Originally posted by Left Brain

Trump in a walk.  The Dems have overplayed their hand once again with all of the unrest.  They learned absolutely nothing from 2016.

I always get a kick out of the loudmouthed protestors and rioters proclaiming they are "the people" and "the people are speaking".  No, you knuckleheads, "the people" are busy going to work each day and raising their families.  They are more sick of your whiny BS today then they were in 2016.

It's amusing to watch someone campaign for "fire fighter of the year" while standing there pouring gas on the fire.

meh....I don't see it that way.  This country isn't going down the socialism road.  You might think so from your view.....but you'd be wrong.  We have come to the point here where it's not a hidden agenda for the left.....you fight fire with fire.

2020-09-02 6:04 AM
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Subject: RE: Defunding the police
Originally posted by Left Brain

Originally posted by marcag
Originally posted by Left Brain

Trump in a walk.  The Dems have overplayed their hand once again with all of the unrest.  They learned absolutely nothing from 2016.

I always get a kick out of the loudmouthed protestors and rioters proclaiming they are "the people" and "the people are speaking".  No, you knuckleheads, "the people" are busy going to work each day and raising their families.  They are more sick of your whiny BS today then they were in 2016.

It's amusing to watch someone campaign for "fire fighter of the year" while standing there pouring gas on the fire.

meh....I don't see it that way.  This country isn't going down the socialism road.  You might think so from your view.....but you'd be wrong.  We have come to the point here where it's not a hidden agenda for the left.....you fight fire with fire.




You opinion on this? Are we at the point people agree on this ?

Edited by marcag 2020-09-02 6:05 AM




(Screen Shot 2020-09-02 at 7.05.39 AM.png)



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2020-09-02 8:49 AM
in reply to: marcag

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Subject: RE: Defunding the police

I think neither of those kids, emotionally, are even close to being able to handle the situations they have put themselves in.

Their parents are morons.



2020-09-02 9:06 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Defunding the police
Originally posted by Left Brain

I think neither of those kids, emotionally, are even close to being able to handle the situations they have put themselves in.

Their parents are morons.




Agreed on the situation those ids are in and your assessment of their parents

People like the one that wrote that tweet should no be allowed to reproduce.
2020-10-16 7:55 AM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Subject: RE: Defunding the police
Originally posted by Rogillio

Originally posted by marcag

I know you and LB will say neither will happen, but humour me

Put these in order of probability, ie highest probability first

Republicans lose Senate
Republicans lose Presidency
Republicans lose Congress


House
Senate
President

I’d say a 60% chance we don’t take the house, a 30% chance we lose the Senate and 10% chance we lose the presidency.

Only reason I say this is we still have 4 months to go and, as we’ve seen in the previous 4 months, the entire world can change in 4 months.


Guys,

updated predictions ?


2020-10-16 8:29 AM
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Subject: RE: Defunding the police

Trump owns the Hispanic vote.

Trump owns the Catholic vote.

Trump owns the working man's vote.

Trump will win 20% of the black vote.

The Dems WAY overplayed their hand the last 3 years.

Trump will easily get to 300 electoral votes.

If the election was a 7 game playoff it would be Trump in 6 games.



Edited by Left Brain 2020-10-16 8:32 AM
2020-10-16 9:53 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Defunding the police
1% chance Dems lose the house
60% chance Republicans lose the senate
80% Biden wins

Not impossible for Trump to win reelection, just very unlikely. The older white men vote likely won't be enough for Trump to clinch a victory this time. Wouldn't be surprised if Biden gets around 350 electoral votes.
2020-10-16 11:00 AM
in reply to: Synon

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Subject: RE: Defunding the police
One thing for sure.
One of you two is going to be very wrong :-)


2020-10-16 11:31 AM
in reply to: Synon

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Subject: RE: Defunding the police
Originally posted by Synon
Wouldn't be surprised if Biden gets around 350 electoral votes.


350 would be taking this https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/and splitting the "toss up" right down the middle
2020-10-16 12:04 PM
in reply to: marcag

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Subject: RE: Defunding the police
Originally posted by marcag

Originally posted by Synon
Wouldn't be surprised if Biden gets around 350 electoral votes.


350 would be taking this https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/and splitting the "toss up" right down the middle


The polling is close in Florida, Arizona, and NC with slight leads for Biden, I don't think it would be unreasonable for Biden to win those states but we will see. Texas, Ohio, Iowa, maybe Georgia I'd guess will go in Trumps favor. Democrats may have some polling bias just as they did in 2016, but it's going to have to be a massive amount for them to lose all the toss ups and then some of the more Biden leaning states. If Biden gets Pennsylvania you can probably just go ahead and call the race, the toss ups won't even matter at that point.
2020-10-16 12:05 PM
in reply to: Synon

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Subject: RE: Defunding the police

Originally posted by Synon
Originally posted by marcag
Originally posted by Synon Wouldn't be surprised if Biden gets around 350 electoral votes.
350 would be taking this https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/and splitting the "toss up" right down the middle
The polling is close in Florida, Arizona, and NC with slight leads for Biden, I don't think it would be unreasonable for Biden to win those states but we will see. Texas, Ohio, Iowa, maybe Georgia I'd guess will go in Trumps favor. Democrats may have some polling bias just as they did in 2016, but it's going to have to be a massive amount for them to lose all the toss ups and then some of the more Biden leaning states. If Biden gets Pennsylvania you can probably just go ahead and call the race, the toss ups won't even matter at that point.

You sound JUST like "Brit Abroad" in 2016.  We never heard from him again. LMAO

2020-10-18 7:37 AM
in reply to: marcag

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Subject: RE: Defunding the police
Originally posted by marcag

Originally posted by Rogillio

Originally posted by marcag

I know you and LB will say neither will happen, but humour me

Put these in order of probability, ie highest probability first

Republicans lose Senate
Republicans lose Presidency
Republicans lose Congress


House
Senate
President

I’d say a 60% chance we don’t take the house, a 30% chance we lose the Senate and 10% chance we lose the presidency.

Only reason I say this is we still have 4 months to go and, as we’ve seen in the previous 4 months, the entire world can change in 4 months.


Guys,

updated predictions ?





Rog ?
Others ?

BT polls current have a dead even split 50-50 with a polling of 2.
2020-10-18 8:24 AM
in reply to: marcag

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Subject: RE: Defunding the police


2020-10-19 2:14 PM
in reply to: marcag

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Subject: RE: Defunding the police
Rog hasn't changed his mind, none of these guys have. It's because they like Trump, not because of what the data shows. States are seeing early voting records smashed, Colorado for example has had 24 times as many people already vote than at this time in 2016. Gallup is reporting twice as many democrats plan to vote early. The biggest challenge the democrats have faced isn't numbers of people who lean left of center, it's getting those people to actually vote. The largest group of people who don't vote are younger, they are also significantly more liberal than older groups.

Yes yes, "the polls are wrong" and "Trump voters are shy". The 2016 polls weren't THAT inaccurate, sites like fivethirtyeight gave him a 30% chance which isn't insignificant. Even a 10% chance is still a real possibility. The polling for the popular vote was Clinton +3.5 and the post election result was +2, anyone who said it was wildly wrong is an idi0t. Biden is now polling at +10 and some change, if you don't think that will affect the electorate you are fooling yourself. Political views aside, Trump is facing a big uphill battle and he's not making ground.
2020-10-19 3:49 PM
in reply to: Synon

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Subject: RE: Defunding the police
Originally posted by Synon

Rog hasn't changed his mind, none of these guys have. It's because they like Trump, not because of what the data shows. States are seeing early voting records smashed, Colorado for example has had 24 times as many people already vote than at this time in 2016. Gallup is reporting twice as many democrats plan to vote early. The biggest challenge the democrats have faced isn't numbers of people who lean left of center, it's getting those people to actually vote. The largest group of people who don't vote are younger, they are also significantly more liberal than older groups.

Yes yes, "the polls are wrong" and "Trump voters are shy". The 2016 polls weren't THAT inaccurate, sites like fivethirtyeight gave him a 30% chance which isn't insignificant. Even a 10% chance is still a real possibility. The polling for the popular vote was Clinton +3.5 and the post election result was +2, anyone who said it was wildly wrong is an idi0t. Biden is now polling at +10 and some change, if you don't think that will affect the electorate you are fooling yourself. Political views aside, Trump is facing a big uphill battle and he's not making ground.


Trump has threatened to move to Canada if he loses. Yikes !!

2020-10-19 4:57 PM
in reply to: Synon

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Subject: RE: Defunding the police
Originally posted by SynonRog hasn't changed his mind, none of these guys have. It's because they like Trump, not because of what the data shows. States are seeing early voting records smashed, Colorado for example has had 24 times as many people already vote than at this time in 2016. Gallup is reporting twice as many democrats plan to vote early. The biggest challenge the democrats have faced isn't numbers of people who lean left of center, it's getting those people to actually vote. The largest group of people who don't vote are younger, they are also significantly more liberal than older groups. Yes yes, "the polls are wrong" and "Trump voters are shy". The 2016 polls weren't THAT inaccurate, sites like fivethirtyeight gave him a 30% chance which isn't insignificant. Even a 10% chance is still a real possibility. The polling for the popular vote was Clinton +3.5 and the post election result was +2, anyone who said it was wildly wrong is an idi0t. Biden is now polling at +10 and some change, if you don't think that will affect the electorate you are fooling yourself. Political views aside, Trump is facing a big uphill battle and he's not making ground.
Hahahahaha!!!!
2020-10-20 6:02 AM
in reply to: Synon

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Subject: RE: Defunding the police

At the end of the day, Covid will have taken down Trump.

I have trouble believing anyone, except his most fanatical followers, could think his handling of the situation the last few weeks is helping him.

2020-10-20 8:44 AM
in reply to: marcag

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Subject: RE: Defunding the police

Trump is not going anywhere.....bank it.  And Covid is not taking him or this country down.



2020-10-20 9:25 AM
in reply to: Synon

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Subject: RE: Defunding the police
Originally posted by Synon

Rog hasn't changed his mind, none of these guys have. It's because they like Trump, not because of what the data shows. States are seeing early voting records smashed, Colorado for example has had 24 times as many people already vote than at this time in 2016. Gallup is reporting twice as many democrats plan to vote early. The biggest challenge the democrats have faced isn't numbers of people who lean left of center, it's getting those people to actually vote. The largest group of people who don't vote are younger, they are also significantly more liberal than older groups.

Yes yes, "the polls are wrong" and "Trump voters are shy". The 2016 polls weren't THAT inaccurate, sites like fivethirtyeight gave him a 30% chance which isn't insignificant. Even a 10% chance is still a real possibility. The polling for the popular vote was Clinton +3.5 and the post election result was +2, anyone who said it was wildly wrong is an idi0t. Biden is now polling at +10 and some change, if you don't think that will affect the electorate you are fooling yourself. Political views aside, Trump is facing a big uphill battle and he's not making ground.


Take the polls with a shaker of salt! Even IF the polls are accurate it is one thing to sit in your recliner and tell a pollster you are gonna vote for somebody. But it’s a different thing to drive to the polls and stand in line for a couple of hours to cast a vote. This is why many pundits are pointing to ‘voter enthusiasm’ as a big issue. I’d crawl thru broken glass to cast my vote. Not sure the same could be said by many Biden supporters.

Another consideration is the electoral college. Looking at the RCP average in battleground states most of these states are within the margin of error of the polls. When I read ‘Poll show Biden up by 1.7% in FL” I just grin! There is an old joke about the engineer calculating a dimension to a 100th of an inch, the foreman measuring it with a yard stick and the technician cutting it with an axe! The polls should simply say the polls are so close we cannot tell who is leading. All polls are based on models and if your models are based on bad assumptions, your results are wrong. Look closer at the polls and you will see all polls are not equal. Rasmussen polls “likely voters”. Other polls just report someone answered the phone and said they support candidate X. Ok, but are registered to vote? Have you ever voted before in your life? Are you willing to stand in line for 2 hrs to cast your vote?

Even Dems know voter enthusiasm is a big problem and that is why they are pushing voting by mail.
2020-10-20 10:02 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Defunding the police
Originally posted by Left Brain

Trump is not going anywhere.....bank it.  And Covid is not taking him or this country down.




Country no.

If (again if) he loses, you can blame Covid.

More accurately, his "perceived" handling of Covid.
2020-10-20 10:07 AM
in reply to: marcag

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Subject: RE: Defunding the police

Originally posted by marcag
Originally posted by Left Brain

Trump is not going anywhere.....bank it.  And Covid is not taking him or this country down.

Country no. If (again if) he loses, you can blame Covid. More accurately, his "perceived" handling of Covid.

I doubt he's going anywhere.....but IF you were right, then his only failing will have been listening to the "experts" when the country was shut down and the economy was crashed.  Dumbest chit ever......I said it then, and nothing has changed.

2020-10-21 6:02 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Defunding the police
Originally posted by Left Brain

Originally posted by marcag
Originally posted by Left Brain

Trump is not going anywhere.....bank it.  And Covid is not taking him or this country down.

Country no. If (again if) he loses, you can blame Covid. More accurately, his "perceived" handling of Covid.

I doubt he's going anywhere.....but IF you were right, then his only failing will have been listening to the "experts" when the country was shut down and the economy was crashed.  Dumbest chit ever......I said it then, and nothing has changed.




Is there 1 country in the world that go it right ?

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