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2007-02-27 2:16 PM

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Pro
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Libertyville, IL
Subject: Anybody watching that Dow today?
Off 500 points at one point on the heels of China shaving 9% off their markets today.  Arent we usually the market causing others to get the jitters?  Sign o the times?


2007-02-27 2:19 PM
in reply to: #705229

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Elite
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Muskego, WI
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?

Yes.  Watching and cringing, watching and cringing.

2007-02-27 2:27 PM
in reply to: #705229

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Champion
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Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?

Kind of looks like the COJ Gutter Slide that we tend to reference.

Just the occasional reminder of how inter-related our investment structures really are.

2007-02-27 2:33 PM
in reply to: #705229

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Elite
3491
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In The Peleton
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?

From what I've read we have gone over 1000 days without a 2% "correction."  That's the second longest streak we've had so traders may be looking for something to act on.

I'm loving what it's doing to mortgage backed securities.  We're up 28bp's today.  Mortgage pricing should be pretty good tomorrow which means I can give some good deals and make a little extra cash all at the same time.

Anybody in Wisconsin want to save some cash?

2007-02-27 2:36 PM
in reply to: #705229

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Master
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Cambridge, MA
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?

The first part of Peter's reply (above) gave me hope --

see I'm really just a hippie scientist with a 401K but no clue on general market trends, so I was almost in panic when I heard a 500+ point drop in the Dow

-- but the second part of his post made me cringe. 

2007-02-27 2:42 PM
in reply to: #705229

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Elite
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In The Peleton
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?

I used to check my 401k balance every day.  I have since realized that is not a healthy habit...  401k's and IRA's are great--just set it and forget it.

We're not at our wost levels of the day right now, Dow is down about 340, was down 500 as jszat said above.  That said, I don't think the market is done correcting.  Most of the money that comes out of stocks in a situation like this goes into bonds.  This results in better mortgage rates.  Gotta stay busy with mortgages and not pay attention to my retirement accounts...



2007-02-27 2:45 PM
in reply to: #705229

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Elite
2661
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DC Metro, slowly working my way to NC
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?

Well, more watching the S&P than the Dow, but yeah, I've got CNBC on every day.

We're overdue for a correction, and China's overnight performance was a good instigator. Remember, this is just one day and a correction <> extended bear market.

I think there are going to be some good buying opportunities this week.

2007-02-27 3:12 PM
in reply to: #705229

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Coach
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Stairway to Seven
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?
Funny, I just read chapter one of Willian O'Neales most recent book, "The successful investor", which was about market tops and bottoms. Applied to today's, OK, yesterday's market, the major indices have had only ONE "distribution" day in teh past four weeks. Usually it takes five distribution days in a 2-4 week period of time to signify a market top. Distribution day does not mean a down day BTW. But TODAY is definately a distribution day...negative markets on higher volume than yesterday.

As far as what that means in the big picutre? Well, I don't really know, I'm only on chapter one.

BTW, all week, free access to all the subscriber features of investors business daily...

www.investors.com

I'm curious to see what the IBD has to say about the day's movement.
2007-02-27 3:25 PM
in reply to: #705229

Pro
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Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?
jszat - 2007-02-27 3:16 PM

Off 500 points at one point on the heels of China shaving 9% off their markets today.  Arent we usually the market causing others to get the jitters?  Sign o the times?


Yeah, China farts, the rest of the world smells it.

But don't worry, even though China has the world's largest population, the majority of the manufacturing and an economy growing a breakneck speed, they'll never dominate.
2007-02-27 3:41 PM
in reply to: #705229

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Expert
957
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St. Louis, MO
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?

Yeah...I work for a major Financial Brokerage company...it's been all over the place here.  Ho hum...

2007-02-27 3:45 PM
in reply to: #705270

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COURT JESTER
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ROCKFORD, IL
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?
PeterAK - 2007-02-27 1:42 PM

I used to check my 401k balance every day.  I have since realized that is not a healthy habit...  401k's and IRA's are great--just set it and forget it.

I didn’t know RONCO had an investment side of their company.

 



2007-02-27 3:49 PM
in reply to: #705334

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Coach
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Boston, MA
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?
Opus - 2007-02-27 3:25 PM
jszat - 2007-02-27 3:16 PM Off 500 points at one point on the heels of China shaving 9% off their markets today.  Arent we usually the market causing others to get the jitters?  Sign o the times?
Yeah, China farts, the rest of the world smells it. But don't worry, even though China has the world's largest population, the majority of the manufacturing and an economy growing a breakneck speed, they'll never dominate.
Yup, that's what many in this country keep thinking...
2007-02-27 4:53 PM
in reply to: #705375

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Champion
26509
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Sydney
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?

amiine - 2007-02-28 8:49 AM
Opus - 2007-02-27 3:25 PM
jszat - 2007-02-27 3:16 PM Off 500 points at one point on the heels of China shaving 9% off their markets today.  Arent we usually the market causing others to get the jitters?  Sign o the times?
Yeah, China farts, the rest of the world smells it. But don't worry, even though China has the world's largest population, the majority of the manufacturing and an economy growing a breakneck speed, they'll never dominate.
Yup, that's what many in this country keep thinking...

The comment i got here down under this morning was "China sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold" - thats what they used to say about the USA  (comment from a guy I work with)

2007-02-27 5:16 PM
in reply to: #705229

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Champion
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Beautiful Sonoma County
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?

Interesting.  I haven't really had much money to invest since the last "correction", so I haven't paid too much attention.  I've been socking away my savings and paying down my debt.

But Eric just recently opened a 401k acct (he has other retirement savings, just hasn't been inspired to take part in the company plan).  When he was doing his research he got a lot of advice from his step dad, who told him "The market is due for a big correction, so until that happens, put all your money into bonds."

Hmmm... seems he might have been right.

Makes me wonder, though... since I'm setting up my own 401k (just started a new job)... maybe this was the correction, and now it's time for me to get back in?  Or...

2007-02-27 5:17 PM
in reply to: #705372

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Elite
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In The Peleton
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?
tupuppy - 2007-02-27 3:45 PM
PeterAK - 2007-02-27 1:42 PM

I used to check my 401k balance every day.  I have since realized that is not a healthy habit...  401k's and IRA's are great--just set it and forget it.

I didn’t know RONCO had an investment side of their company.

I was trying to remember the name of the product they hawk on infomercials...  Thanks for filling in the blank!

2007-02-27 5:20 PM
in reply to: #705474

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Elite
2661
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DC Metro, slowly working my way to NC
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?
madkat - 2007-02-27 6:16 PM

Interesting. I haven't really had much money to invest since the last "correction", so I haven't paid too much attention. I've been socking away my savings and paying down my debt.

But Eric just recently opened a 401k acct (he has other retirement savings, just hasn't been inspired to take part in the company plan). When he was doing his research he got a lot of advice from his step dad, who told him "The market is due for a big correction, so until that happens, put all your money into bonds."

Hmmm... seems he might have been right.

Makes me wonder, though... since I'm setting up my own 401k (just started a new job)... maybe this was the correction, and now it's time for me to get back in? Or...

There will probably be some followthrough on the downside through the rest of the week. But a 401K is such a relatively long term investment, trying to time your entrance isn't nearly as critical as if you're doing shorter term trades.

(Note, not a financial adviser, nor do I play one on TV or BT.)



2007-02-27 5:21 PM
in reply to: #705229

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Coach
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Stairway to Seven
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?
I think this is ironic: (From the investors business daily)

"U.S. stocks opened lower on news that China's Shanghai Composite plunged nearly 9%, its biggest drop in 10 years, over news that the Chinese government will step in to curb illegal investing. After surging 127% in 2006, the Shanghai Composite gained 13% over the past six sessions."

I bolded the ironic part. Isn't this a good thing? So China's investors pulled because illegal investing is going to be curbed? SO is that 127% increase all due to illegal investing? And what of the portion of my mutual funds that are in foreign/emerging markets? Does that make me an illegal investor?
2007-02-27 5:26 PM
in reply to: #705482

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Elite
2661
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DC Metro, slowly working my way to NC
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?

AdventureBear - 2007-02-27 6:21 PM I think this is ironic: (From the investors business daily)

"U.S. stocks opened lower on news that China's Shanghai Composite plunged nearly 9%, its biggest drop in 10 years, over news that the Chinese government will step in to curb illegal investing. After surging 127% in 2006, the Shanghai Composite gained 13% over the past six sessions."

I bolded the ironic part. Isn't this a good thing? So China's investors pulled because illegal investing is going to be curbed? SO is that 127% increase all due to illegal investing? And what of the portion of my mutual funds that are in foreign/emerging markets? Does that make me an illegal investor?

I think there might be something slightly lost in the translation of what the Chinese government put out. They're looking to curb foreign investment (cause there are a LOT of foreign dollars in their market) and the use of margin/loans to invest with Chinese investors. I think it's the margin/loan part that is what they're talking about as being "illegal" - somehow I don't think your emerging markets fund is running afoul.

It was another good reminder that markets do not like talk of capital controls. There was another market where the government came out and said something similar in the past year and overnight their market seriously tanked - I can't for the life of me remember which country it was now.  (They quickly backpedaled on the statements after seeing what happened.)



Edited by BodyCheck 2007-02-27 5:28 PM
2007-02-27 5:27 PM
in reply to: #705229

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Champion
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Albuquerque, New Mexico
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?
2007-02-27 5:30 PM
in reply to: #705229

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Master
4101
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Denver
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?
SELL MORTIMER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I think it's really all because Greenspan said yesterday that he thinks we'll be in a recession by the end of the year. The guy is in retirement and people still hang on his every word.
2007-02-27 5:33 PM
in reply to: #705496

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Elite
2661
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DC Metro, slowly working my way to NC
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?

drewb8 - 2007-02-27 6:30 PM SELL MORTIMER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I think it's really all because Greenspan said yesterday that he thinks we'll be in a recession by the end of the year. The guy is in retirement and people still hang on his every word.

He is still a very much loved economist/guru/whateveryawannacallhim. It could have been a contributing factor sitting in the back of the fund managers heads as they traded today.

However, I think today definitely locked in some interest rate cuts down the line.



2007-02-27 5:58 PM
in reply to: #705496

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Coach
9167
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Stairway to Seven
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?
drewb8 - 2007-02-27 4:30 PM

SELL MORTIMER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I think it's really all because Greenspan said yesterday that he thinks we'll be in a recession by the end of the year. The guy is in retirement and people still hang on his every word.


In all the press releases I read, I never picked up that it was Greenspan and not Bernacki. I guess I don't really know as much as I thought I did.

2007-02-27 9:52 PM
in reply to: #705229

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Expert
938
50010010010010025
Orange County, California
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?
Thailand is the country that put controls on international investors and lost 20% in one day, in the last few months.
2007-02-27 10:29 PM
in reply to: #705480

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Champion
6285
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Beautiful Sonoma County
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?
BodyCheck - 2007-02-27 3:20 PM
madkat - 2007-02-27 6:16 PM

Interesting. I haven't really had much money to invest since the last "correction", so I haven't paid too much attention. I've been socking away my savings and paying down my debt.

But Eric just recently opened a 401k acct (he has other retirement savings, just hasn't been inspired to take part in the company plan). When he was doing his research he got a lot of advice from his step dad, who told him "The market is due for a big correction, so until that happens, put all your money into bonds."

Hmmm... seems he might have been right.

Makes me wonder, though... since I'm setting up my own 401k (just started a new job)... maybe this was the correction, and now it's time for me to get back in? Or...

There will probably be some followthrough on the downside through the rest of the week. But a 401K is such a relatively long term investment, trying to time your entrance isn't nearly as critical as if you're doing shorter term trades.

(Note, not a financial adviser, nor do I play one on TV or BT.)

Oh yeah... I was just kidding anyway.  I have a couple of different funds that I get to choose from, and I think I'm going to mix it up a bit and have some high-risk and some slow-but-steady stuff in there.  And, like Peter said, put it away and forget about it.  

 

2007-02-28 9:02 AM
in reply to: #705229

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Sneaky Slow
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Herndon, VA,
Subject: RE: Anybody watching that Dow today?

I watched and read yesterday with great interest the drop in the stock market.  The more I watch the market, the more I am convinced that the psychology of fear is the biggest determinant of stock prices.

Headlines like "Market drops on news of attempted Cheney attack" make me wonder... huh?  What does one have to do with the other.  People read the headline, say to themselves... oooh!  Stocks are going to drop!  I better sell!  Which causes prices to drop, and the thing snowballs.

What if everyone followed Warren Buffett's "buy and hold" strategy?  What if people did not allow emotion to rule?  It seems that stock prices would just go up and up.

Stock prices are like gambling odds... oddsmakers make odds based on what they think the public is going to do, not what they think the teams in question are going to do.  People buy/sell stocks based on what they think others will do, not the financial strength of the company in question.  Playing the market is legalized gambling, simply put.  Except that there is a guaranteed way to beat the house... buy and hold.  Period.

Fear rules in the market.  If people weren't such lemmings, we'd all make more money.  And I could go buy a tri bike.

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