Presidential Election Prediction Poll (not necessarily who are you voting for)

I think Romney will win because Obama doesn't have very much to run on.  He will have a tough time using the blame Bush argument.  Doesn't matter if it was Bushes fault or not, the economy is Obama's at this point.  Up until now I thought it was going to be close, but based on the new offensive strategy by team R/R it could be a lot bigger.

His biggest accomplishment that he spent almost all of his political capital on was the ACA and according to most polls people do not like it.  The fact that you're not seeing any ads about it and just glancing mentions on stump speeches confirms the unpopularity.

I also think the ACA has potentially shifted the tectonic plates of medicare support towards the republicans with Seniors.  I think the $700B that was taken from medicare is going to be a big problem for Obama and it's been somewhat entertaining trying to watch them try to deny and defend the cuts.  It's almost like they didn't realize it until just the past few weeks.  "we have to pass the bill so you can find out what's in it"  - Nancy

I'm really looking forward to the debates.

You have no idea the power you have over the vein popping out of my forehead right now.

An intelligent electorate will see that Obama has done nothing to improve the economy and has no real leadership skills.  However sadly, what Josh says above is true (the bolded part, not the part about doing a better job attacking... really?)

He'll sweep the black vote again.  Hope & Change Part 2.

We can only hope that the American people gain a few IQ points in the next few months.

You don't think Obama has had more effective attack ads? The only really effective one I can think of for Romney is the "You didn't build that". It seems like every other day Romney is trying to defend/deflect an ad from team Obama.

Sad...isn't it.  Chicago politics...

Ya, remember how he was going to change all that, how he was going to do it all better, how he was going to be the great non partisan hope... Nothing but BS. The American people get the government they deserve.

No not at all.  At this point I think both sides are muckraking.  Neither of them are really attacking the issues.  All of Obama's ads (like the "Romney killed my wife" ad) are hyperbole at it's best.

I'm sure in 4 years if Romney wins, we'll look back and say "remember when he was going to be different than Obama/Bush". 

Fixed for you.

The less the focus is on the issue's the better that is for Obama though right? To me that means he is doing a better job. Plus he has put Romney on the defensive about his time at Bain.

How many answering this picked the candidate they are not backing? 

I was surprised when Bush the younger won a second term. At that point, I think I realized that a challenger has to be really really charming to make the sitting prez lose. Think Carter/Reagan, Bush 1/Clinton compared to Reagan/Mondale, Clinton/Dole, and Bush 2/Kerry. Yes, the sitting presidents all had some kind of issue to fight back, but I think most people voted for the guy they simply liked better. Essentially the "who would you like to have a beer with?" - think Gore/Bush.

I voted Obama but I'm voting for Gary Johnson in November.

I answered Obama, because I think he has the lead right now.  Not sure who I am voting for yet.

I don't see it that way.  Romney stated that he left Bain at a particular point and that things they claim he was responsible for, were not his responsibility.  I don't see him being defense.  I see him stating his side of the story and moving on.

But yes, the less the focus on the issues the better for Obama.  Recuse he CANNOT run on his record.  So Romney needs to focus more on the issues, which I think with Ryan now in the picture he will do.

Agree.  It will come down to a few select districts in a few swing states and the country will end up more divided, no matter who wins.  I have always said I'd like a "businessman" to be president, but politics will always prevail.

I thought Bush 2 was hailed as the businessman president?

Highlighted above. 

i think obama will crush this election.  for all of the reasons above...his team is doing an awesome job at making romney look like the devil, and it's just easier to wait out 4 more years and let him finish what (???) he started.  there are far more lower and middle class voters than wealthy right wingers, and in 2008 obama's campaign proved that they could make sure to get out those traditional non-voters in droves.  and...most people DON'T PAY ATTENTION TO THE ISSUES.  all they care about is their limited understanding of the president's distant influence on their wallets...and all they know is the hype in the media. 

to gb's question:  i won't vote for him.  i didn't last time either.  this will only be my 4th pres election and i will be 0 for 4 in my candidate winning.