Covid-19 Testing

It's a conspiracy to make the number of tests conducted look good
No, it's a conspiracy to make the number of infections look bad
No, it's a conspiracy to make the mortality rates look better

Pick a party, then choose your conspiracy theory :-)

It’s not hard to believe the numbers are inflated. Been recent reports where clinics in FL were only reporting positive cases. So they have 100% positive cases reported.

They gubment has lost all credibility when it comes to covid! Too many flip flops and model revisions. No one knows what to believe any more. Clearly the media wants to present the virus as the Black Plague with reporting “new” cases. Headlines like “1,000 new cases in a day” are BS. They aren’t new cases! They are new positive tests. They might have have covid for 2 months!

Actually the numbers are quite clear. It's the interpretation of the numbers that's so biased and where all the spin occurs.

Numbers are not at all clear. The headlines do NOT correlate to the CDC Covid website numbers at all! For example, I read where FL had like 1k ‘new’ cases. Do to the CDC covid site and they show zero new cases in FL. This happens over and over and over.

I find it odd that they don’t differentiate the number of cases that are asymptomatic and those that are actually sick. Why? Because if someone was to get covid but had no symptoms the fear factor goes away. For all I know, I had it and recovered and never even knew it. And almost anyone could say that. There has been a meme floating around “Image a disease so serious you have to have a test to know if you actually have it” or words to that effect.

When you compare the US numbers against other countries you see similar and different patterns

Countries that had "similar" conditions have almost identical numbers despite different systems, poltics...

Spain France and Italy showed the same patterns of growth and the most important number deaths/million. Their death rate (which to me is the most important number) went way down and has stayed down. This is death per millions per day. They are getting little spikes here and there but they are well controlled. They were unlucky to have been hit first but they have been very disciplined in their re-opening.

Germany, which showed the best discipline of the core European countries did the best.

Sweden which decided to go it's own way has done very poorly and their death rate is not decreasing as fast as other countries. Their herd immunity theory didn't work. Good example of what not to do.

Brazil is a train wreck. Poster child of how to bungle the pandemic.

Canada and the US had similar numbers. The US was higher, but if you removed the NYC factor we were pretty similar.
Our death rate was coming down almost lock step with yours.

Your death rate (deaths/million) stopped decreasing and have very slightly ticked up, ours continues to fall.
Yesterday we were at 0.45 deaths/million/day, you were almost 3.0 Your death rate is more than 6x higher than ours now.
We had a much more disciplined re-opening. We are seeing small spikes in infections but they are very small. We don't see increase in deaths.

The opening, in my opinion is what you guys could have done better.

Your infection rate is climbing quite quickly but your death rate is not increasing nearly as much. To me this means that if the elderly are properly protected, which they now are, there will be a lot less deaths. It looks like the mortality rate is nowhere near what they thought at the beginning. But it's also way more contagious. The "we are testing more" argument is total BS. You aren't testing much more than most countries and what has increased is the number of positives per 100 tests. You used to do a 100 tests and get, say 5, positives. You now test 100 and get 25 positives. It is spreading.

People with pre-existing conditions are in big trouble and with the infection rate you are seeing right now, I would be very worried if I as one of them. You have a lot of people with pre-existing conditions and the disease is spreading fast. You will continue to see a rise in death rate. (deaths/million/day). I doubt it will be what it was in April but if a couple of cities take off....watch out.

You are losing 800+ per day. Not hard to imagine 250,000 people before a vaccine arrives. Many of those could have been spared.



In some places the headlines don't match and the actions taken don't match either

In some places they do.






Edited by marcag 2020-07-17 4:30 PM

My Training LogMy Race Log

Sweden yesterday had 26 deaths, 21 the day before, 27 the day before....
With a very, very small population of 10million they are about 2.5 deaths/million per day.
Most of the "better" countries are below 0.5.

For example, Germany has 3 deaths yesterday with a population of 83million. 8x more people, 8x less deaths

Yes, 25 lives per day seems like "nothing" to some but they lost more people during the peak and they continue to lose more people today. Their strategy failed.



Edited by marcag 2020-07-18 10:23 AM

BTW, worldmeters charts do not match their data for some countries

My wife is responsible for care management for covid patients here (thankfully not in-person care, all by phone), the nearby reservations were hit pretty hard. Apparently it works both ways, there have been plenty of upset people who tested negative when they got really sick with covid like symptoms, then tested positive. It's unreasonable to expect the test to be 100% accurate, there hasn't been time to perfect it.

Maybe these claims from friends of friends should be reported to the local news. I can find only one example of this happening from some internet searches.

Dems worst nightmare: covid vaccine

All the numbers games, lockdowns, school openings and mask mandates will disappear like a fart in the wind when a vaccine come out and/or effective treatment. I’ve been seeing a lot of good news on various studies both here and abroad about both treatments and vaccine breakthroughs.

I suspect the best medical minds across the globe are working around the clock. A vaccine for this is a gold mine for pharmaceutical companies...the mother lode!

I would think the Democrats would love it. It will be post election so if elected they don't have to deal this crap anymore.

No way even a small part of the population would be vaccinated before.

Right--do not agree that something that could save lives and get things back to normal is anyone's nightmare. Except maybe murderers. Not getting into my personal politics but I live in a very blue state/town and nobody here is saying they don't want a vaccine or want this to go on and on, no matter who or what wins in November. People have safety concerns, yes, of course, especially parents as there have been drug/vaccine fiascos that hurt kids before--thalidamoide, DMS, dengue vaccine in the Philippines that made the virus more dangerous instead of less so, etc. Can only hope that testing is adequate with all age groups and a vaccine allows people to get back to normal life without fear, whether exaggerated or not.

It is going to take a long while before a vaccine had an impact on infection rates.
Availability of a vaccine is just the start....adoption will be a whole different discussion.

I won't be taking any vaccine for a virus that kills people at a rate just above the flu, if it even does considering how many people likely have contracted it. It's been life as usual for me since this started... and I haven't seen a single thing that changes my mind.

Edited by Left Brain 2020-07-20 7:56 PM

That is your right. It is also my right as someone with asthma and living with an 82 year old to get a vaccine if I think that is best for me and my family. Also get the flu vaccine yearly for that reason. I don't enjoy being in ER very much, and flu has put me there. I would, though, probably hesitate with a healthy child until more is understood about the long-term effects and risks to kids of the virus itself, and the vaccine is more widely used. I follow the research closely as a teacher and it is pretty strong that most kids aren't seriously affected; jury still out on how efficiently they can spread it to more vulnerable groups--seems like younger kids are less likely than older ones; for the latter it probably depends on their hygiene and social habits, just like adults.

As I said, it will take a while before a vaccine has impact on the spread.

People struggle with the concept of wearing a simple mask to help protect the more vulnerable.

You really think they are going to inject something fast tracked for political reasons ?

Hey, I have an idea....claim it's patriotic....ya...there's an idea. Genius, pure genius !!


PS : hope your mom is doing well. The isolation is really hard for some. And the stress of car givers to not bring anything bad in is just another unnecessary stress.


Edited by marcag 2020-07-21 7:49 AM

DP

Edited by Left Brain 2020-07-21 8:22 AM

Nice !

Make it nice and big. You and the Mrs can eventually move to those quarters and the twins can come and take care of you

Are you guys nervous at all about the rising numbers ? I'm talking deaths, not cases.

Last night a friend said "how can they not be worried about this". So I figured I'd ask