2010 Tour De France - Predictions (Page 2)

Well, for me, it was more of a wishful thinking sort of thing. If you look at Alberto's form last year, the general consensus this year and the odds-makers, it's Alberto's race to lose. There's really no discussion...but what fun is that?

So... a few things that might help Lance... I like the experience at RS, (read: Ensure in the feeding zones) but it might help them in the early wind stages and on the paves. As for TTs, I don't think we've seen a full-on effort from Lance yet. Is he as good as years past, no, but I think he is better than we have seen. That being said I also think Andy and Alberto have been playing it close to the vest. I really like Kloden and Popo bringing Lance up the mountains. Aside from Vino, I don't know a ton about the Astana team but maybe they can isolate Alberto. Then again he has proven he can do it on his own. Then there is the untangiable factor...I just think if anyone can do it at this age, Lance can. For him to win, however, RS will need to ride a perfect tactical tour, Lance will have to be a little better than we have seen, and they will need a lucky break or two.

GC top favorites aside...I am really looking forward to seeing how the boys at BMC do. They looked really solid at the TdSuisse.

And for the green jersey: With the unfortunate withdraws of Boonen and Haussler, can Thor or possibly Tyler challenge Cav? Also looking forward to the young rider from Sky...Edvald Hagen, I think. Could be an outsider with a chance.

My prediction.
Someone will fail a doping test.
Then, someone will start a thread expressing surprise and disbelief.

Cav has to finish to get the Green Jersey.  He should emulate Cipollini and just wear costumes, kick a$$ on the flat sprints, win 5-6 stages, and be ecstatic about it.

Thor does well to stay in it on the flat finishes, wins a few uphill finishes and gets in on a few breaks to win it.

Not sure there is much surprise and disbelief left at doping in cycling.

Classic...

Heh.  I agree with both of you.

Here is my prediction.  AC takes it again this year. I also do not think LA will finish in the top 5. I don't even think he is the best rider on his team. The only place I see LA with an advantage over Contador is on the cobbles.  It will be interesting to see what happens if Levi is up on LA halfway or 2/3's through the tour. I am wondering if Radio Shack will throw their support behind him or not. Any ways I am thinking: 1. Contador 2. A. Schleck 3. Basso 4. Wiggins 5. Evans and I would like to see VdV do well this tour.

My predictions:

* Fabian in yellow after day 1 and Saxobank protects for the first week
* RS and Saxobank control the peloton while LiquidGas waits for key opportunities
* Saxo tries a ploy like when Sastre won by alternating Schlek attacks to try to break Contador
* Levi doesn't have to abandon
* Hesjedal in the top 15 (not even sure if he is starting)
* Vino attacks Contador on at least two stages when he should be riding to protect him
* Cav does something stupid and loses points in the Green Jersey competition
* RS doesn't have anyone strong enough to win but places 3 riders in the top 10
* Basso rebounds well from the Giro and is in the mix throughout
* Contador makes a strategic mistake in week 1 or 2 that costs him the tour

Top 5

1) Schlek (either one)
2) Basso
3) Contador
4) Schlek
5) Armstrong

Shane

Dont' forget CVV crashes in your predictions.

I thought that was a given

I also want to see Jens Voigt at the finish line this year.

Shane

Andy Schleck

Alberto Contador

Cadel Evans

Lance.

Edited by Nipper 2010-06-30 9:34 AM

The TDF is a team event like no other bike race.  That counts Alberto out, let's face it Astana is not a fraction of the team it was a year ago.  Lucky for Lance the TT is not as big a part of this year's race, along with that I think he's doing them well enough for that not to be a factor.  The cobbles will likely help him, but I'm not sure how much.  To me this comes down to the Schlecks and with there increadibly strong Saxo Bank team vs Lance's incredibly strong Radio Shack team.  But I'll give this one to youth.  It's time for the reins to be passed.

1. Schleck 1
2. Armstrong
3. Schleck 2
Wild Card - Cadel Evans

However nothing would make me happier than Mark Cavendish getting beat on at least half of the sprints, he's such a tool.  With at least a couple going to Tyler Farrar(but he needs a haircut first, seriously)

I'm curious about this.  When is the race route/format set for the next year?  After last year, could the TTT have been left out to negate the advantage it might give to LA?  I love watching and following this event, but I don't know which team would be strongest on a TT.

If Levi is ahead of Lance.  Johan and Lance will start a Twitter campaign to portray Levi and a rouge team member that is out for himself.    At the same time they will go on camera play dumb, well maybe not play , and say there is no problem.  Lance will leave the tour all pissy and refuse to congratulate Levi on his accomplishment. Half of roadbikereview.com will think Levi is an a**hole the other half will think he is the Savior.

Eh i dont see This happening with Levi maybe Kloden, i think he would make a great team captain.

Contador doesnt require a team to win, he proved that last year he will mark the Saxo attacks and if someone goes on a head he will bridge to them and pass. He is in his prime and when in form unbeatable.

Yep, I see it that way to although it looks to me that Kloden is comfortable working for someone else and he does a good job at it. I do not think Contador needs a strong team either to win, the other guys need a strong team to be in the ballpark. Come Saturday we will find out who is in shape and who isn't.  Talking time is almost over.

Not a bad synopsis....



My tips:

GC Podium:
Contador
A. Schleck
I. Basso

Honourable mentions - Armstrong, Evans.

Points:
Cavendish

Mountains:
M Llyod


Reasoning: I believe that Contador is unbeatable. Andy Schleck will be the big improver and I expect it will be closer than Contador would like. Basso will be the surprise packet as he has a strong team around him.

Cavendish wants the Green Jersey this year and he will go after it. He is a year wiser and his lead-out train is still in great shape. I do believe that HTC will be paying more attention to Rogers' GC chances but stage wins are too much to pass up.
Look for Pettachi to share points with Hushovd, Farrar, McEwan, et al which will make Cav's stage wins more significant.

Matthew Lloyd showed that he is a genuine climber and OPL will have a more realistic expectation with Jurgen Van Den Broeck on GC so Matty Lloyd should be given free reign. He is coming off some great form from the Giro and knows how to protect the lead.

This is shaping up to be a great Tour and the first week will be far more interesting than anyone expects. This year, more than ever before, the old saying applies "You can't win the Tour in the first week, but you can lose it".

Evans will finish Top 5 and BMC will get Pro Tour status for next year. With a few new recruits they will be a force - next year.

Vive Le Tour!

Seen this pic of the Schlecks. Check out that dudes huge biceps... hahaha j/k. Armstrong all the way

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This is a great post! Totally cracks me up but at the same time scares me as it is possible!

After Contador these were tough, I have been staring at the list for 30 minutes.  The following teams have absolutely no one that will contend, which is kind of a shame.

AG2R, BBox, Cofidis, Cervelo, Euskaltel, FdJ, Cassie, D'epargne, Garmin, Katusha, Lampre, Milram, Omega Pharma Lotto, Columbia and quite a few if their one guy doesn't post have no chance, i.e Rabbobank, Sky & BMC.


So my GC picks, and again after Pistol pete contador I have no idea.  Staying away from the Schlecks, Andy just doesn't seem to be able to bring it when needed and still cant TT.  Frank doesn't have the legs for all that climbing, day after day.

Contador - duh, really no one that can hang with him right now.
Armstrong - lol, just no one else to pick.
Menchov - Dunno, didn't defend at Giro this year, maybe in preparation for TdF?

Points
Hushovd

KOM
Roman Kreutiger (SP?)

That is a conclusion I came to years ago which kind of bored me from watching the Tdf. Now I understand theres alot more to it than I am about to say, but as a fan, the Tdf is kinda boring. Cept for the Mtg stages and TTs I skip the rest.

-The best rider may not win the tour because his team is weaker
-You may have 2 strong riders within the team and politics plays a role
-Most teams don't have a rider good enough to even place in the top 10, infact even top 20
-Many riders fall hours behind the race leaders and have no affect whatsoever

So what you realy have left is the TTs and mountain stages where a handfull of riders battle it out for the win. Thats about 8 stages of real racing and the rest are... basically a tour of the countryside where the peleton just hangs out and everyone chats. 

And if half these teams have no chance, they might as well be made of a bunch of no-Joes riding the draft. Hence you couldnt do any worse by any decent cyclist in general, since they wont have any impact on the race either. Macca couldnt do any worse... 

The greatest athlete in the world is looking for 8





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