Lance swim 49 for 2.4 miles.. (Page 3)

Here's my two cents.

Lance always trained for the Tour De France Period. He trained to win the greatest bike race of all time.  (Probably with a little motivation from the French and the governing bodies of cycling)  He never trained to win a classic race, the Giro, none of em.

If Lance is coming back to Triathlon with the intent on winning, he will test the waters, then train only for what he thinks is the biggest Triathlon race in the world (Kona I presume)..  Can he do it?  Only time will tell.  Will he raise a ton of Livestrong money YES....

Don't you know riding a bike 112 miles is completely different than a 3 week tour.   He's only ridden in the tt position for maybe 1h15 at most not the 4:20ish he'll need for Hawaii.  Plus what does he know about nutrition he won't have a team car behind him to tell him when to eat.

All this is meant as sarcasm.  I would use pink font but I'm too computer stupid to figure out how.

Personally I find it crazy that people would doubt his ability to compete at an elite level in an Iron distance tri.

It really is amazing to step back and think about this.  He has been a bike racer for a long while now.  He jumps back in the pool after (how long?) off and lays down a sub 50 2.4 mile OWS.  Simply mind boggling.  As much as I like the guy it is pretty maddening to think about how easily he jumps right back into something and is already at the tippity top of the scale.

:shakeshead:

Couldn't agree more.  The pros all know what each other is capable of.  Craig Alexander knows he can chase down Lieto even if he's down 12-15 minutes to him off the bike.  But does Alexander know for sure that he can chase down Lance if he is 25 minutes ahead of him off the bike?  Will Craig automatically assume Lance will run a 3:10+ marathon...or does he need to gamble and pick up his bike pace in the event that Lance somehow can run a 3:00 marathon.

I'm not saying Lance could run a 3:00 marathon after a 4:15ish bike, but it will certainly play mind games on the pros.

Yep.  That would also negate the need to spend an eternity in the TT position too.  The man made his money on climbing big hills.  He would KILL St. George.

Has anyone taken the time to check the participants list for all the majors IM's?  Of course, it would be completely reasonable of him to request that his name remain off the participant list  People don't even really leave him alone now, could you imagine how much ridiculousness he'd have to deal with if his participation was announced in advance?  If I were him I would really just want to show up and not deal with the pre-race drama.  Though, that's not very fair to the other participants.

Alot of people seem to think he's not gonna do too great at IM. 

I personally think he's gonna totally KILL it! The dude is an ANIMAL! ;-)

49 swim is pretty frickin quick. Wonder what he's like on a bike?!

The generally accepted range for IMs is 70-76% of FTP.  Pros are likely racing at the top end of this, if not just beyond.  This point is the one that I think people miss consistently when downplaying LA's chances.  Typically, the argument is "Oh, he'll crush the bike but that he'll blow up on the run because he went too hard."

Except for him to dominate the bike won't require him to go hard.  I think the highest FTP ever claimed for LA was 483 watts.  Even with significant losses over the last several years, I'd wager his FTP is still north of 400.  Take 75% of that and you end up with 300+ watts.  While that number looks huge to those of us that train with power, for a pro cyclist, doing 4+ hours at 75% would NOT be a hard effort.  Torbjorn Sindballe set the course record in 2005 on 286 watts.  I'm not sure what Stadler's power was when he broke the record in 2006.  The point is, Lance will ride away from the rest of the field while not pushing himself any harder than they are.

Oh, and Lance finished behind James Bonney and James Cotter

Cotter is a pro that specializes in 70.3.  He won Steelhead 70.3 last year and had a swim split of 24:28.  He came in 2nd at Eagleman 70.3 with a swim split of 27:16.

Bonney is another pro with a pretty impressive background (including 4th at Kona in 1998).

Here are their tweets afterwards:

Cotter: "Fast 2.4 mile swim with @jamesbonney and @juanpelota today. They both put me in the hurt. Juan will be FOP in any 70.3/IM swim."

Bonney: "@juanpelota great swim. It was a solid ice breaker for the IM distance. Next time opt for the light weight waffles post-race."

He lives in Texas.  Plus have you seen the temperature on some of those Tour stages?  He's proven himself capable of handling the heat.

And I agree that pretty much any Tour rider outclasses the field of riders in the triathlon world.  It doesn't matter if they're a little out of their element.  Look at what Lance and Levi did to the guys in the Leadville 100 the past couple years.

last year at nautica lieto and mecc were racing, mecca won by 1-2 seconds, anyways for 20 miles mecca mentioned he was pushing 450 watts.  they were ave 27-28 mph. and lieto was pulling away....

What i meant about mild climate was not humid and have terrible crosswinds like kona is known for.  Pure heat is different, you get that in many places in the world.  But kona's humidity and wind gusts are well known.

I should have been more clear

if that happens that would be cool from a standpoint of people finally realizing what triathlon is all about...

So, when I go to work Monday and say I did a tri, they won't say "that one in Hawaii?"  Instead, they'll say, "the one Lance did?"

He may have hit 450 watts for short periods but certainly not for 20 miles.

 just quoting you to stay on the same theme.   how will he get into race.

I'm sure this has been brought up before.  But isn't there a CEO challange type entrance that just basically costs more? 

I"m not sure of the structure of all of the different branches of Livestrong, but is he a CEO of any of them, if only in name?

Maybe he can get in as one of the feel good stories, you know, the young man overcomes cancer type angle 

It's the Executive Challenge.  You don't necessarily need to be a CEO.  Basically you pay a whole lot more money and you get a bunch of extra stuff (guaranteed entry, VIP tickets, accommodations, etc).  There are also separate Kona qualifying slots.  Basically, it's a separate set of AGs for rich people, not necessarily corresponding to the normal AGs.  They only promise that there will be at least two XC age groups and that each AG will have 1 slot.  If there are more than 6 people in an AG, that AG will get 2 slots.

Can't see any reason for LA to do this.  It's not a way of buying a direct slot to Kona, just a way of ensuring you're only competing against a small set of other rich folks for the slot.  Since that's the case, there's no reason for him not to just qualify as an age grouper, unless he wants to do a race that's already sold out.  Even in that case, I don't think he'd have a problem raising the funds for a CF slot, assuming WTC just doesn't let him in to any race he wants to do.

It could be the biggest ratings ever if he raced in KONA, and did reasonably welll....it could bring a lot of positive attention to the sport....i would be glued to the tv!!!