What if.............. (Page 3)
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2020-03-20 5:22 PM in reply to: Left Brain |
Extreme Veteran 5722 | Subject: RE: What if.............. Originally posted by Left Brain Nah....best news is it's 98.7% survivable.....just wait until a really bad virus hits us. The world will likely implode. so you're 327 million people. If 33% of the population catches it, with a 98.7 "survival rate", that's a 1.4million people. I'd hate to see your idea of bad news |
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2020-03-20 5:29 PM in reply to: Left Brain |
Official BT Coach 18500 Indianapolis, Indiana | Subject: RE: What if.............. Originally posted by Left Brain I'll quit typing now......as I watch the men and women I work with respond to calls where people are likely infected, knowing they are putting themselves and their families in harms way.....your comment just pisses me off even more, and I'm losing all possible respect. Wait! You've been minimizing this for weeks, indeed on 2020-03-17 8:15 AM you said, "the OVERWHELMING majority of people won't even get sick enough to stay home from school." Now people are putting themselves in harms way? Never mind. See? This is why I rarely post in internet forums. You express your opinion in a comment and someone with a different opinion gets butthurt, then the discussion spirals down into a shouting match and then it gets personal. Don't worry though, I won't lose any sleep knowing you've lost respect for me. |
2020-03-20 5:42 PM in reply to: k9car363 |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: What if.............. Originally posted by k9car363 Relax Bro....you're gonna live. Originally posted by Left Brain I'll quit typing now......as I watch the men and women I work with respond to calls where people are likely infected, knowing they are putting themselves and their families in harms way.....your comment just pisses me off even more, and I'm losing all possible respect. Wait! You've been minimizing this for weeks, indeed on 2020-03-17 8:15 AM you said, "the OVERWHELMING majority of people won't even get sick enough to stay home from school." Now people are putting themselves in harms way? Never mind. See? This is why I rarely post in internet forums. You express your opinion in a comment and someone with a different opinion gets butthurt, then the discussion spirals down into a shouting match and then it gets personal. Don't worry though, I won't lose any sleep knowing you've lost respect for me. |
2020-03-21 11:43 AM in reply to: 0 |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: What if.............. Now down to 1.2%... and that's likely to be the last good number as NY and LA announce they will no longer test. Not sure what that's about. I guess we no longer care how many are infected?? Something doesn't smell right about this. Edited by Left Brain 2020-03-21 11:45 AM |
2020-03-21 1:08 PM in reply to: Left Brain |
Champion 10157 Alabama | Subject: RE: What if.............. Originally posted by Left Brain Now down to 1.2%... and that's likely to be the last good number as NY and LA announce they will no longer test. Not sure what that's about. I guess we no longer care how many are infected?? Something doesn't smell right about this. I smell what you’re stepping in. I was think the same thing. CNN had/has a ticker showing the number of cases and number of deaths and I opened my calculator on my phone every hour or so and you can see the mortality rate dropping like the DOW. |
2020-03-21 2:28 PM in reply to: Rogillio |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: What if.............. 1.1 now and no longer testing in biggest areas of the country. "Stay home if you don't feel well"......but.....but.....won't I die???? |
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2020-03-21 2:46 PM in reply to: Left Brain |
Champion 10157 Alabama | Subject: RE: What if.............. Originally posted by Left Brain 1.1 now and no longer testing in biggest areas of the country. "Stay home if you don't feel well"......but.....but.....won't I die???? What are you gonna believe, facts and data or PMSNBC and CNN? Millions will die. Prepare for a depression. This has changed the world forever. Perspective. During the ‘92 LA riots a total of 63 people died during the riots. As many as 2,383 people were reported injured. That is one city. Imagine the death toll if riots break out in major cities across the country. Just a thought. I’ve read gun sales are soaring. Although I take this with a grain of salt. I suspect most of the sales are to existing gun owners who are using this as an excuse to their spouse to buy another gun. Maybe I can convince my wife I need an AR-15 and 10,000 rounds of ammo and high capacity magazines. You know, to protect our chickens and eggs when the riots start. |
2020-03-21 2:55 PM in reply to: Rogillio |
Champion 10157 Alabama | Subject: RE: What if.............. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ I don’t feel like doing the math but if one were to extrapolate the numbers I think one would find the mortality rate is dropping like a rock. My gut feel of the numbers is we are adding new cases by the thousand as more and more people get tested but the number of deaths is only going up by about 1 for every 1000 new cases. This would put the virus as the same as the flu. Just a gut feel as I watch the numbers change. I may be totally wrong but it won’t be the first or last time. |
2020-03-21 3:27 PM in reply to: Rogillio |
Extreme Veteran 5722 | Subject: RE: What if.............. Originally posted by Rogillio https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ I don’t feel like doing the math but if one were to extrapolate the numbers I think one would find the mortality rate is dropping like a rock. My gut feel of the numbers is we are adding new cases by the thousand as more and more people get tested but the number of deaths is only going up by about 1 for every 1000 new cases. This would put the virus as the same as the flu. Just a gut feel as I watch the numbers change. I may be totally wrong but it won’t be the first or last time. the death/confirmed cases is dropping but it's doubtful it will drop to flu levels. South Korea who is testing more than anyone is at 1.16% and they have been at this longer than anyone. They are more stable than the US because they have been at it longer. the infection rate is much higher than expected and much higher than the flu. Look at the death rate per million and look at the growth there. Doctors in Italy are dropping like flies. This is not the flu. |
2020-03-21 3:57 PM in reply to: 0 |
Extreme Veteran 5722 | Subject: RE: What if.............. Originally posted by Left Brain smells like they can't keep up with the testing so they are prioritizing those they will test.Medical staff, responders.. and people that it would impact the course of remedy if a positive test would mean, "go home and wait until it gets worst", they are just skipping the test because they aren't able to keep up with the volume. Only things I can think of and not that different than where they were a week ago. Edited by marcag 2020-03-21 3:59 PM |
2020-03-21 4:15 PM in reply to: marcag |
Champion 10157 Alabama | Subject: RE: What if.............. Originally posted by marcag Originally posted by Rogillio https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ I don’t feel like doing the math but if one were to extrapolate the numbers I think one would find the mortality rate is dropping like a rock. My gut feel of the numbers is we are adding new cases by the thousand as more and more people get tested but the number of deaths is only going up by about 1 for every 1000 new cases. This would put the virus as the same as the flu. Just a gut feel as I watch the numbers change. I may be totally wrong but it won’t be the first or last time. the death/confirmed cases is dropping but it's doubtful it will drop to flu levels. South Korea who is testing more than anyone is at 1.16% and they have been at this longer than anyone. They are more stable than the US because they have been at it longer. the infection rate is much higher than expected and much higher than the flu. Look at the death rate per million and look at the growth there. Doctors in Italy are dropping like flies. This is not the flu. Ok. “To you it’s Thanksgivings. To me it’s Thursday.” My question to you, et al, is at what point does the morality rate need to get to till you concede we (society) over reacted? If it drops to 5x the flu was all the showdown justified? 3x? 2x? |
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2020-03-21 4:42 PM in reply to: Rogillio |
Extreme Veteran 5722 | Subject: RE: What if.............. Originally posted by Rogillio My question to you, et al, is at what point does the morality rate need to get to till you concede we (society) over reacted? If it drops to 5x the flu was all the showdown justified? 3x? 2x? Good question. First of all I think comparison to the flu is stupid. If we see that we didn't even come close to overwhelming the medical system, we over-reacted. If we manage to stay at the breaking point, we were just right If we overwhelm the system and more people die than needed to, we under-reacted. And when we do the post-mortem on over reaction, let's include our government's failure in preparing for this and handling it as it broke out. I am not singling out your government. |
2020-03-21 7:43 PM in reply to: marcag |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: What if.............. From where I sit.....this is a media hype....and it shouldn't be....it doesn't even need to be. It's craziness. This is a bad bug.....but WTF is going on here??? On another board, a guy posted a link from the NY Times that said there would be 650,000 cases in the U.S. in 2 months. Well OK, that's a big scary number. So let's do the math..........FROM THE NY TIMES.....BOLDED Here's what stood out to me....."could be 650,000 cases in the next 2 months". Let's say that the worst case scenario is 3.5% fatalities, which should make the doomsday folks happy here, it's actually about 1.2% now. So let's say 3.5%....that's 22,750 deaths. I know it's a big number. But, in 2018 we had rougly 80,000 flu deaths...which at the 3.5% rate would be roughly 2,300,000 covid cases....or nearly 4 times what the NY Times just reported. This is all I ask.....how about a little damn context from the media instead of all the hype? What is the point? Most people can't remember last year, much less 2018.....but we have been here before....and it was OK. We didn't scrap our way of life for it. What is going on here? So.....WHAT IS GOING ON??????????? |
2020-03-22 5:51 AM in reply to: Left Brain |
Extreme Veteran 5722 | Subject: RE: What if.............. Originally posted by Left Brain which should make the doomsday folks happy here, you believe this ? You believe people want to see death to say 'I told you so' ? |
2020-03-22 10:46 AM in reply to: marcag |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: What if.............. Originally posted by marcag No I don't....not at all. And "here" was not directed at anyone in particular.. .just the folks who keep saying it REGARDLESS Of WHAT THE DATA SAYS. Of course, now we can't even trust the data.....why is that? I've been an investigator for 33 years....something is not right here. Originally posted by Left Brain which should make the doomsday folks happy here, you believe this ? You believe people want to see death to say 'I told you so' ? |
2020-03-22 12:57 PM in reply to: Left Brain |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: What if.............. Now at 1.0% ......and that's only the counted cases. The Mayor of NY this morning estimated that 40-80% of New Yorkers are infected. That's a scary number, yeah? But if it's true, the mortality rate of this is flu-like. So.....either he is full of crap or the deadliness of this virus is WAY off base. Again, where is the context in the reporting of "scary" numbers? |
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2020-03-22 1:11 PM in reply to: 0 |
Extreme Veteran 5722 | Subject: RE: What if.............. Originally posted by Left Brain Now at 1.0% ......and that's only the counted cases. The Mayor of NY this morning estimated that 40-80% of New Yorkers are infected. That's a scary number, yeah? But if it's true, the mortality rate of this is flu-like. So.....either he is full of crap or the deadliness of this virus is WAY off base. Again, where is the context in the reporting of "scary" numbers? If 40-80% of New Yorkers are infected, we may see in 10 days how bad this really is. But if he used that number I question where he got it. He doesn't know. Nobody does. They haven't tested. One thing he said, which made a ton of sense, is we should be testing people for the anti-bodies. We could detect how many people have caught it and which people could function in society with no risk. Edited by marcag 2020-03-22 1:12 PM |
2020-03-22 1:34 PM in reply to: Left Brain |
Extreme Veteran 5722 | Subject: RE: What if.............. Originally posted by Left Brain The Mayor of NY this morning estimated that 40-80% of New Yorkers are infected. NO!!!! He said "40%-80% will get it". That is a quote from his slide He did not say they are infected. |
2020-03-24 12:17 AM in reply to: marcag |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: What if.............. Absolutely, my bad. I've heard it twice since I posted that. Still, I'm happy to see the low death rate holding, and we know there are many more undocumented cases, although we have no idea how many...but the rate is still much lower than what we can measure. We'll see what it looks like at the end of this week. The folks in the middle of the country are paying attention and not moving about much. I'm not too sure what will happen when the spring breakers come home to their communities. I think this is a bad bug.....but I still have no idea why we crashed the economy. Seems to me we could have "sheltered in place" the members of our society who are say, 60 and older, and let the youngsters keep things rolling. But here we are and it is what it is. I'll make so much money during this deal it'll make me forget how angry I was, and still am, at the media fueled reaction to this virus. I have to admit though......I am not disappointed that the left has turned it political.....they have never let me down!! |
2020-03-24 4:50 AM in reply to: Left Brain |
Extreme Veteran 5722 | Subject: RE: What if.............. Originally posted by Left Brain Absolutely, my bad. I've heard it twice since I posted that. Still, I'm happy to see the low death rate holding, and we know there are many more undocumented cases, although we have no idea how many...but the rate is still much lower than what we can measure. We'll see what it looks like at the end of this week. The folks in the middle of the country are paying attention and not moving about much. I'm not too sure what will happen when the spring breakers come home to their communities. I think this is a bad bug.....but I still have no idea why we crashed the economy. Seems to me we could have "sheltered in place" the members of our society who are say, 60 and older, and let the youngsters keep things rolling. But here we are and it is what it is. I'll make so much money during this deal it'll make me forget how angry I was, and still am, at the media fueled reaction to this virus. I have to admit though......I am not disappointed that the left has turned it political.....they have never let me down!! I suspect NY will show us what to expect next. I am afraid of what the death rate would be with an overwhelmed system. My bet is you will see an easing of social distancing which could work if properly executed. But I think we are not ready to properly execute, yet. |
2020-03-25 1:44 PM in reply to: marcag |
Expert 852 Evergreen, Colorado | Subject: RE: What if.............. A friend of mine is an ER nurse in Denver. Reports that a large portion of their patients are in their 30s, 40s, 50s, one college aged kid. Many/most with no other health issues, but in ICU with vents or oxygen. So quarantining those 60+ is not the solution. I'm starting to hear firsthand accounts from friends/acquaintances who have COVID, since it seems to have been spreading in CO for a while. Most are in their 40s and healthy, just like me, and they are absolutely miserable with it. From my small sampling of people, seems like the guys are harder hit. It sounds absolutely awful, whether you end up in the hospital or not. Stay safe out there folks! |
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2020-03-25 3:11 PM in reply to: Stacers |
Champion 10157 Alabama | Subject: RE: What if.............. I’m a big fan of the odds. Right now 0.02% of Americans have the virus. Think about that. 65k/350M people. It it increases 10 fold that is 0.2%. It it goes up 100 fold that is 2%. And given the mortality rate of 1.4% in the US, that means even if we see a 100x the cases 0.28% of the country will die. Or 99.73% will live and not die. |
2020-03-25 3:26 PM in reply to: Left Brain |
Expert 1183 Fort Wayne, IN | Subject: RE: What if.............. If you are sitting at home with nothing to do, this youtube video of Michael Crichton can put some of this in perspective. His actual talk is about an hour and is very informative. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDCCvOv3qZY&list=WL&index=2&t=6205s |
2020-03-25 3:55 PM in reply to: 0 |
Extreme Veteran 5722 | Subject: RE: What if.............. Originally posted by Rogillio I’m a big fan of the odds. Right now 0.02% of Americans have the virus. Think about that. 65k/350M people. It it increases 10 fold that is 0.2%. It it goes up 100 fold that is 2%. And given the mortality rate of 1.4% in the US, that means even if we see a 100x the cases 0.28% of the country will die. Or 99.73% will live and not die. In large cities, it is easy to see 40% of people catching it, if social distancing not done. Some say as high as 70% Current estimates are 5% of those that catch it require hospitalization. The mortality rate of 1.4% is based on the assumption people can get help. The minute you saturate the system that mortality rate goes to 4%. Watch NYC death rate go up when they run out of ventilators. The current approach is not working. Letting everyone go back to normal, as if nothing was, is fatal. The solution is based on intelligent re-introduction of people into a working society. There are a few parts required for that that aren't there yet. Edited by marcag 2020-03-25 4:17 PM |
2020-03-25 4:37 PM in reply to: marcag |
Champion 10157 Alabama | Subject: RE: What if.............. Originally posted by marcag Originally posted by Rogillio I’m a big fan of the odds. Right now 0.02% of Americans have the virus. Think about that. 65k/350M people. It it increases 10 fold that is 0.2%. It it goes up 100 fold that is 2%. And given the mortality rate of 1.4% in the US, that means even if we see a 100x the cases 0.28% of the country will die. Or 99.73% will live and not die. In large cities, it is easy to see 40% of people catching it, if social distancing not done. Some say as high as 70% Current estimates are 5% of those that catch it require hospitalization. The mortality rate of 1.4% is based on the assumption people can get help. The minute you saturate the system that mortality rate goes to 4%. Watch NYC death rate go up when they run out of ventilators. The current approach is not working. Letting everyone go back to normal, as if nothing was, is fatal. The solution is based on intelligent re-introduction of people into a working society. There are a few parts required for that that aren't there yet. What if....just what ifing...what of this is Darwininism? What is this is nature’s way of culling the herd and eliminating the ones whose immune system is not up to sniuff? Just a thought. It |
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