Ironman 70.3 Raleigh : Official Thread (Page 4)

RACE WEEK.

Who's already bored of work and ready for the weekend?

Looks like your strategy worked! Current forecast is 83, slightly cloudy, and 4 mph wind. Or did I just jinx us?

Keep thinking cool thoughts.
Ready for Sunday to be here already.
I guess in the mean time I can organize all my gear, and then pack it, and then take it out, and recheck it, and pack it again, and then recheck it......you know, that whole drill.

Not to jinx us but the weather is looking outstanding.

Wind out of the East isn't ideal but I'll take it if this weather holds!

OK, now you've done it!!!!

I've loaded max and min air temps into JMP (SAS product), along with water temp. I ran a plot of average air temp versus observed water temp from 1/1/14 to today.

A quadratic equation to fit is:
water temp = 29.643985 + 0.5015097*average air temp + 0.0099402*(average air temp-50.9223)^2

Running a few daily averages in there, an average air temp of 77 will keep the water to 75.

We're at 76 again today (Thursday). We could get there.

Accuweather is saying this:
Today: 80 High, 65 Low, (average of 72.5) with a t-storm (that's good)
Friday: 78 High, 62 Low, (average of 70) with a passing shower (that's good)
Saturday: 82 High, 56 Low, (average of 69) nice with periods of sun (good for bike check-in!)

Geek out session over.





Attachments
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air vs water temps.pdf (153KB - 25 downloads)

that was intense.

Edited by Iwannarunlikeforrest 2014-05-29 10:58 AM

If you send him your previous 5 races he can predict your Raleigh time to within +/- 30 seconds.

And if you send my your Zipp wheelset, I'll do it for free

I predict...wetsuits will be taken to swim start.

I predict that your prediction is correct!

I'm keeping my race results to myself because i had a rough day at NO 70.3...

Water temps haven't been updated yet for Thursday and today. I emailed the Corps. Thursday 78. Friday 79. Uh oh.

I question those numbers. I swam in Jordan last night and it felt cooler than 79.
That should be enough right? Me saying that its cool enough.

Still considering a wetsuit legal swim a bonus and expecting a non wetsuit swim.

Bill, we saw last year the total lack of relationship between army corps numbers and IM numbers, so I would actually be a little surprised if it ISN'T wetsuit legal. To me the only downside to not wetsuit legal is that you would still do the wetsuit right? Which means starting way later than me, making it a touch harder for you to run me down at the finish line. Wait, maybe thats a good thing.

this day needs to be over. I'm sitting in front of computer at work and I cant bring myself to do anything productive.

I'm going off at 7:22 regardless. Wetsuit or not. I can't afford to dilly-dally out there all day, and miss out on all the fun with my AG peeps. All 3 waves of us. So I will be ahead of you for 4 minutes at least once Sunday.

lucky you! I dont go off until like 8:06. I'm going to have to pass hoards of people on the bike..

Yeah, that is a bummer. My wave was further back last year at Augusta. The disparity in pace on the bike is almost unsafe. I also accidentally collided hard with some slower folks on the swim. I know why they do it but it makes it tough.

Yeah - it is what it is. My biggest concern is that you start climbing right out of T1 and I'm sure that far back in the race there will be people ALL over the road. So i'll end up having to go far left and probably pushing more watts then I should.

Who knows - hopefully I'm wrong about all of this! Either way I'm going to have a good time and do some work!!

Yep. That was me last year. I was hoarse from yelling "ON YOUR LEFT" all the way up to 64

I actually got off my bike and hopped on a horse that I found along the road. That way I already had the "horse" thing covered and didn't need to yell! Get it, get it!?

Clearly I need some help. :-)

Last bus leaves at 5:30 and my wave is at 8:02. Lots of sitting around. Would you recommend a coat or will it be pretty warm? Also, what about skeeters around the lake? Any issues with this? Last thing I want is to be waiting around with nervous energy and getting torn up by mosquitos for 2 hours.

I don't recall mosquitoes being a problem, either last year, at the open water swim a few weeks ago, or whenever I've been out there.

Last I looked the low is supposed to be 59. A layer might be nice.

How did everyone do yesterday? I thought the weather was perfect. The volunteers and crowd support was also great.

5:19. I blew up on the second run loop. The out was pretty much all uphill. My legs started locking up and I wanted to walk or pass out in a ditch so badly.