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2006-02-02 1:47 AM
in reply to: #336901

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Master
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Subject: RE: China? respect?
i look at china as the country that does a sprint tri and get "not a real tri" then they do an OLY and get "not a real tri." then whats next... china has to win kona to get any respect. i just feel there is no respect. (read "all the threads about mini or wanna tris; and how ANGRY people get when they dont get respect!)


2006-02-02 7:43 AM
in reply to: #336901

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Champion
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Subject: RE: China? respect?

I haven't quite figured out yet what your point is.

Is China a rising power in the world?  Yes
Does China have a large and growing economy?  Yes
Does China have a large military?  Yes
Is China potentially dangerous?  Yes
Is China's military on par with ours?  No
Does China commit horrible human rights violations with its own country?  Yes
Would China win a war against us?  No

Lots of random facts.  The real fact of the matter is that their lack of a passable navy and air force to compete with ours means that they wouldn't have a fighting chance.  We could literally sit there and blockade all their ports and bring the country to its knees if it came down to that.  All of the initial fighting would be done by our air force and cruise missles, making the casualty and damage rate way skewed in our favor.  They know this, and they're not stupid about it.

What is the far more attractive option is that the people of China eventually get fed up enough and organized enough to overthrow a regime that will keep them from being a real superpower in the world.  It's been attempted on a small scale a few times, so you know that that element is brewing.  Hopefully it's only a matter of time.

2006-02-02 8:08 AM
in reply to: #336901

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Crystal Lake, IL
Subject: RE: China? respect?

This is just a "what if" to present a different point of view.

What if China is a country with a much longer history than the U.S. and their general attitude is "Well I guess this 'America' has been around long enough for us to have to start paying attention to them.  If it turns out we get along with them, I hope they aren't gone in another two or three hundred years.  It's so hard to find other nations that last."

I realize that this is not exactly the case, but I'm demonstrating the point that not everyone regards us as the super power we think we are.  Don't get defensive, I'm not saying we aren't the super power we think we are, just that to understand how the people of another country think of us you have to understand their history.  China had well over 3,000 years of history before our country was even "discovered" by the Europeans.  Many people think of China as being mostly rural and backwards (technologically).  And to some extent that is true.  If you were doing something for thousands of years and someone new came along with new ideas and new ways of doing things you wouldn't be in a big hurry to jump on board with them. 

I know I'm making some gross generalizations here and I'm not 100% right about everything, but I'm throwing it out there as food for thought.

I have no idea how this relates the original post.  I'll go flog myself for my second hijack of the day before 9am. 

 

2006-02-02 8:54 AM
in reply to: #337082

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Subject: RE: China? respect?

hangloose has a very good point. The Chinese take the long view.

Not that I think a Sino-American war is even remotely likely at this point, but one other thing to consider militarily was Maos contention that China would win an all out nuclear exchange simply because they could (and if pushed he was willing to) sustain casualties of a billion people and still have twice the US population left. How's that for a mindset?

I'm sure the DoD folks responsible for planning for that contingency have an interesting job.

2006-02-02 9:09 AM
in reply to: #336979

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Subject: RE: China? respect?

tyrant - 2006-02-01 11:45 PM
vortmax - 2006-02-02 12:10 AM don't get me wrong, they could be a formidable opponent, but in the grand scheme of things, there are many more countries that are higher on their **** list. power is all in perception. That's part of the reason the US is still a super power. We could have a military so strong that we could occupy every country in the world in 24 hours, but if nobody considered us a threat or thought that it was possible, we would not be powerfull. It's all about the street rep
as in all respect with iraq, can we do any war? we can barely win over the 3rd miliray power. and all dem Dems' would say we are not winning (see the news). we cant beat terrorists, but "we can beat china"? edit: read vietnam in retrospect to USSR. cant win the war, but how can we expect to be seen as THAT powerful?

Any "conventional" war, yes.  It's the "non-conventional" / "assymetric" fights that give *any* conventional force fits.

Colonists vs. the British

Vietnam vs. the French

Vietnam vs. the US

Iraqi Insurgents vs. the US

--

Hmmm, in most of those, the side on it's own turf "won".

-C 

 

 

2006-02-02 9:10 AM
in reply to: #336901

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Subject: RE: China? respect?
One thing to think about is that throughout history no two superpowers have been able to coexist.  Fron the peloponesian war to the cold war, it just doesn't happen.  Although China may not be there quite yet they are certaintly on their way.  As Drew aluded to they may not have the infostructure but how fast did Russia develop infostructure after WWII?  Another point is that although we certaintly would defeat China now, the conflict would in no way resemble the Persian Gulf War, Bosnia, or Iraq.  It would be a long drawn out bloody spectacle that would cause much more hardship on people in the US.  I think that our Asian foreign policy is about to get real interesting.  I believe that we are going to do every thing we can to covertly keep China from developing the appropriate infostructure and becoming a superpower.  Anyway, I think Tyrant has a more valid point than many of you seem to give him credit for.

Edited by tsmith 2006-02-02 9:36 AM


2006-02-02 9:33 AM
in reply to: #336901

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Subject: RE: China? respect?
First, you have to define super power. By the way you scoped your initial question and the way the western press defines it is generally in terms of military strength and capability.

While China's military certainly has size, what's it's lacking is the ability to project its (military) power. That's what makes the US a military super power. It's not that the US can go everywhere in the world and secure terrain, it's that it could go to strategically select places and assert its (military) will.

This doesn't begin to answer the question of who would win in a fight - every force has its strengths and weaknesses. China is making a huge effort to negate many US strengths (new submarine fleets, attack helicopters, anti-aircraft capbilites, etc.).

I hope we never get into a fight. It sure would get ugly.

Jason
2006-02-02 12:48 PM
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Subject: RE: China? respect?

MHO.

China is a SuperPower on the in one sense.  But she still have a long way to go before becoming a  SuperPower that has major influence to the rest of the world.  There are LOTS to deal with internally. 

2006-02-02 1:02 PM
in reply to: #337152

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Subject: RE: China? respect?
jason.jones13 - 2006-02-02 9:33 AM



While China's military certainly has size, what's it's lacking is the ability to project its (military) power. That's what makes the US a military super power.


but the USSR didnt ever have the ability (except ICBMs) to attack main land america. they could only project their power on western europe. a simuler stance is held by china, ability to project into taiwan. so in that context USSR wasnt a super power.

to define super power let me ask "what did the USSR do that china has not, that shows that china is not a super power?"

Edited by tyrant 2006-02-02 1:03 PM
2006-02-02 1:12 PM
in reply to: #337373

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Subject: RE: China? respect?

tyrant - 2006-02-02 1:02 PM
jason.jones13 - 2006-02-02 9:33 AM While China's military certainly has size, what's it's lacking is the ability to project its (military) power. That's what makes the US a military super power.
but the USSR didnt ever have the ability (except ICBMs) to attack main land america. they could only project their power on western europe. a simuler stance is held by china, ability to project into taiwan. so in that context USSR wasnt a super power. to define super power let me ask "what did the USSR do that china has not, that shows that china is not a super power?"[/QUOTE]

uh, there's about a million answers to this question that would require hours to go through but probably the one that keeps the conversation in the context of your thread is this:  convince the rest of the world (including us) that they had the ability to wipe out the majority of the military capability of every European and North American country at the same time, possibly before we had the ability to respond to such an attack, and were possibly willing to do it.

2006-02-02 1:20 PM
in reply to: #336901

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Subject: RE: China? respect?
Globalized nations have increased trade by 104% since 1975 while non-globalized nations now trade less!  China is now rising, like a sleeping giant panda, to join the global political economy.  It is a huge economic powehouse that can only grow further.  I believe that they will  put aside their ancestral hatred of the Japanese and form trade agreements with them because their combined total of the global export market share would be a whopping 33%.  And if they should form further trade alliances with India, the East Asian nations and maybe even New Zealand and Australia, they will undoubtedly become an economic superpower.  Where will they be 10 years from now?  20 years?  Who knows?!/


2006-02-02 3:10 PM
in reply to: #336979

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Subject: RE: China? respect?
tyrant - 2006-02-01 9:45 PM

we can barely win over the 3rd miliray power.



We can win within 15 minutes. The problem is how you define the term "win the war". We could drop a couple of bombs over Iraq and "win the war" in an instant. Most people have changed the meaning of "win the war" to mean "occupy a country and try to win their hearts". In modern history, I can't remember any country tthat has successfully done so.



Edited by ChuckyFinster 2006-02-02 3:10 PM
2006-02-02 3:31 PM
in reply to: #336901

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Subject: RE: China? respect?
There will not be a war today or even tommorow, but 10 years from now who knows, China may be able to win the war in 15 min.  They have nukes and they can put a man in space.  Couple those two things with the economic explosion that's about to hit China and wo knows.
2006-02-02 3:46 PM
in reply to: #337581

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Subject: RE: China? respect?

You don't leap ahead 50 years in military technology in 10 years.  I don't think people understand exactly how far ahead we are in that aspect.  We're replacing equipment and technology that is far superior to what 99% of the world has right now.  They have lots of potential in many aspects, but don't kid yourself about the military one.

tsmith - 2006-02-02 3:31 PM There will not be a war today or even tommorow, but 10 years from now who knows, China may be able to win the war in 15 min.  They have nukes and they can put a man in space.  Couple those two things with the economic explosion that's about to hit China and wo knows.

2006-02-02 4:04 PM
in reply to: #337597

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Subject: RE: China? respect?

If we are hit by just a couple nukes all the UAVs in the world will not matter.  The most efficient method we have of stopping a nuke is by positioning a battleship in the water and firing missils at it as its launched.  It has been a while (year and a half) since I took the class where I learned this but if I remember correctly we only have a bout a 1 min window to hit the nuke before it is too high.  This plan could very well work with N Korea, being that they are a peninusla, but China could fire a nuke from far enough inland that we don't have this option.

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