Is this realistic?

Your 5K time is equal to a 1:41 half marathon stand alone. So a 1:35 in a HIM is going to be a lot of work.

It's hard to tell. Based on what you did last year -- and the fact that you are still very young -- it doesn't seem like a crazy goal. But it depends on how much progress you've made in your training and racing since last year. The goal splits that you list add up to 4:49, and they are very close to what I did in my first HIM last summer (my transitions weren't so fast, my total was 4:51). If you're putting in solid pool work then you should be able to go a bit faster than :40 in the swim, though it's not likely to be wetsuit legal at Muncie in July. The 2:30 bike split seems attainable based on your past biking, but the key is to be able to do that while keeping plenty in reserve for the run (exhibit A: Lance's run success in Panama 70.3 today). Your duathlon splits suggest that you have a habit of going too hard early on - you're generally far slower in Run2 than Run1. The 1:35 run split seems to be the part that's may require the greatest stretch. To do this on a hot July day you'll need to be able to run this speed very comfortably. Don't underestimate the second half of a half marathon when you were already racing for 3+ hours before you even started running. 

But your youth may be a major asset. With 6 months of smart training you might be able to come a long way.

My first HIM was also my first triathlon at the Spirit of Racine in 2006.  On that day I went 4:48 and spent a bunch of time in T1 messing around with socks and other stuff that didn't matter.

Keep in mind that on any given day things can change - it was brutally hot last year, non-wetsuit legal, but the bike course seemed fast, the run did not. 

As for the race you can plan to do about 2 mins in T1 and 2 mins in T2.  I couldn't take a look at your logs because I am not a strava member, but If I were you then I would work on that swim and get it down to 35 - that is the lowest hanging fruit right now.  Then with a 2:30 bike, and 1:35 run you can get that sub 4:45.  

^^^ This.

I ran a 1:37 HIM split, and a few weeks later was 13 minutes faster in an open HM race. The heat and the rest of the race can really kill. Thomas' point about the time of day is something that distinguishes HIMs from Olys. In an Oly you might be running at 9am, whereas in an HIM you could easily be running between 11 and noon. In the middle of summer that can be a big deal, and it's pure luck whether you get a kinder or more brutal day for your race. 

Pretty much what Colin and Thomas said.

I think you need to have a stand alone HM in at least the 85min range to be able to run that 95 in the heat and on a rolling course.

I don't swim and when I do I suck, but I think that going from 40 to 35 or even 37 is where you can help yourself big in reaching your goal. It is possible with solid focussed training.

Good Luck.

I did the sprint duathlon up there in May last year and it was fairly hilly. Nothing compared to the hills down here in Bloomington tho.

Yeah I definitely agree with that. I'm trying to get down to a 1:25 for the mini in May. I think this should be attainable with proper training. 

I'm definitely a cyclist first but I'm putting in some serious work on the run this year. 

And I think I'm going to get some coaching on my swim stroke. I don't really swim much but I have taken off significant time over the last year. I'm not fast by any mean; just less slow. haha

Just because you can't do it, doesn't mean I can't. haha

I am thinking about this race as well.  I get it about the heat/lack of shade- I know firsthand how tough that can make a race.

However, when I look at the course here I wonder:

http://www.mapmyrun.com/s/routes/view/run-jog-map/indiana/selma/30602474

Am I missing something?  161 feet of elevation gain over 13.1 miles really seems minimal, even for a mostly flat course.  Maybe the heat just amplifies it.

wannabefaster - 2012-02-13 7:44 PM

qrkid - 2012-02-13 7:52 AM

Pretty much what Colin and Thomas said.

I think you need to have a stand alone HM in at least the 85min range to be able to run that 95 in the heat and on a rolling course.

I ran a 1:36 at Muncie last year at well over 90 degrees and I am no where near (or at least I wasn't then) a 1:25 HM guy. It is too bad I am so slow on the swim and the bike.......

Man wannabe you need to give yourself some credit. You know yourself and your body and I don't know you from a bar of soap so I will go with what you say. Looking at your logs, you ran a 3:04 marathon at the end of May 2011. That marathon would suggest you were in 86/7 HM shape, so not far off what I thought about 85. Basically the OP would need to improve his 92min HM by a good way sbefore he can realistically think about running 95 at the end of the HIM.

I'm not on Dailymile. I use strava for pretty much everything to log workouts.

Awesome. That's great to hear. 2:30 was a pretty conservative guess, so I could save myself for the run.

Yeah exactly. I train with power but race by fell. No sense in murdering myself on the bike if it's going to make my run terrible. I've heard Racine is nice and it's always cool to do different courses.

Thanks, good to know. I figure if I finish quicker there will be less heat to deal with haha thanks!