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2012-12-31 11:49 AM

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Subject: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)

Predictions?

I predict R's will cave and pass a tax increase on $450k+ individuals and D's will put some meaningless spending decrease, that's really just a slower increase, and the stock market will go wild on Wednesday.



Edited by tuwood 2012-12-31 11:49 AM


2012-12-31 11:53 AM
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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)
I guess that means you didn't short the index ETFs? 
2012-12-31 12:05 PM
in reply to: #4555138

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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)
The spending cuts will be even worse than you mentioned. I've heard  "$130B in cuts, by saving on interest" which is hoping that interest rates stay low for a decade. That's somehow a cut.
2012-12-31 12:12 PM
in reply to: #4555148

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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)

peby - 2012-12-31 11:53 AM I guess that means you didn't short the index ETFs? 

Oh no, I'm 100% cash right now because I can guarantee whatever way I predict the market to go it will go the opposite.  haha

2012-12-31 12:13 PM
in reply to: #4555177

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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)

JoshR - 2012-12-31 12:05 PM The spending cuts will be even worse than you mentioned. I've heard  "$130B in cuts, by saving on interest" which is hoping that interest rates stay low for a decade. That's somehow a cut.

I think it's a safer bet to say interest rates will stay low for a decade than the opposite.  Credit contractions have SLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW recoveries.

Agreed, that is in no way, shape, or form a "cut".

 

My prediction is Friday they come to some compromise that both sides have a problem with, no one likes, and that doesn't really fix anything.  (I think that's just general enough and just cynical enough of a prediction to work)  

ETA: terrible spelling



Edited by jgaither 2012-12-31 12:14 PM
2012-12-31 12:42 PM
in reply to: #4555138

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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)
Has anyone taken, "continuing resolution passes that doesn't change a thing until March" yet?



2012-12-31 12:57 PM
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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)
Am I the only one that thinks it is pretty ironic that every proposal offered by both sides are actual "fiscal cliffs" while the the so named "fiscal cliff" is more like a fiscal wall?
2012-12-31 1:51 PM
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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)
DanielG - 2012-12-31 12:42 PMHas anyone taken, "continuing resolution passes that doesn't change a thing until March" yet?
June. I say June!!!
2012-12-31 2:11 PM
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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)

Did you guys listen to Obama's speech a little while ago?  I'm obviously not a big fan of his, but he seemed to be in full campaign mode demonizing/bullying the R's and joking around quite a bit.

Based on his speech I'm changing my prediction.  No deal, and we're going over.

2012-12-31 5:34 PM
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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)
2012-12-31 7:17 PM
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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)
tuwood - 2012-12-31 12:11 PM

Did you guys listen to Obama's speech a little while ago?  I'm obviously not a big fan of his, but he seemed to be in full campaign mode demonizing/bullying the R's and joking around quite a bit.

Based on his speech I'm changing my prediction.  No deal, and we're going over.

Doing nothing is more financially responsible than anything they'll come up with.

The end game: with no deal, taxes for EVERYONE revert to old rates before Bush cut them.  Then Obama and the Democrats will turn around and offer a bill to cut tax rates on the middle class and the Republicans will have to say yes to it.  The net outcome is rates revert for the upper class, no matter what the Republicans do.

The fiscal cliff will also have more cuts than the Republicans will ever get through a deal.  But those cuts include military spending which is a big reason why they'd like to avoid it.  I think they'll broker a deal, even if it means turning their backs on Norquist for 1 day out of their lives.



Edited by spudone 2012-12-31 7:18 PM


2012-12-31 7:38 PM
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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)

We haven't had a leader for a President in a long time.  Obama is a true to the core Chicago Politician, the polls show the fallout will be on the Republicans, so no incentive to act as a leader.  In his last four years it wasn't until he took a beating in the polls that he actually to action...well not really action but a lot of talk about action.  The public has a short memory, we'll go over the cliff but it will more likely be a roll down the hill than a crash.

I'm still waiting for the Democrats "100 Day Plan" that they enacted when they controlled both House and Senate to save the country!

 

 

2012-12-31 7:45 PM
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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)
vonschnapps - 2012-12-31 5:38 PM

We haven't had a leader for a President in a long time.  Obama is a true to the core Chicago Politician, the polls show the fallout will be on the Republicans, so no incentive to act as a leader.  In his last four years it wasn't until he took a beating in the polls that he actually to action...well not really action but a lot of talk about action.  The public has a short memory, we'll go over the cliff but it will more likely be a roll down the hill than a crash.

I'm still waiting for the Democrats "100 Day Plan" that they enacted when they controlled both House and Senate to save the country!

How would you run the executive branch to influence this hyper-partisan Congress?  Good luck.

2012-12-31 8:08 PM
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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)
I love the fact that we are looking at net pay reduction from this cliff and Congress gets a pay raise. This is a group that has not been able to completely do there job, passing a complete budget, for several years. Lets reward there inaction and slothfulness with a pay increase. Lets reduce spending by removing pay from Congress until they get there heads out of their a__. Maybe then they would work.

I lean Republican but I think this is complete stupidity on ALL branches/parties/persons and more so on the American public for continuing to reelect/rehire people who do not adequately perform there job. When I ran my business I fired people who failed to perform there job adequately. And yes, I did not vote to reelect anyone in Congress these past 3 years.

Jonathan
2012-12-31 8:14 PM
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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)
spudone - 2012-12-31 6:17 PM
tuwood - 2012-12-31 12:11 PM

Did you guys listen to Obama's speech a little while ago?  I'm obviously not a big fan of his, but he seemed to be in full campaign mode demonizing/bullying the R's and joking around quite a bit.

Based on his speech I'm changing my prediction.  No deal, and we're going over.

Doing nothing is more financially responsible than anything they'll come up with.

The end game: with no deal, taxes for EVERYONE revert to old rates before Bush cut them.  Then Obama and the Democrats will turn around and offer a bill to cut tax rates on the middle class and the Republicans will have to say yes to it.  The net outcome is rates revert for the upper class, no matter what the Republicans do.

The fiscal cliff will also have more cuts than the Republicans will ever get through a deal.  But those cuts include military spending which is a big reason why they'd like to avoid it.  I think they'll broker a deal, even if it means turning their backs on Norquist for 1 day out of their lives.

I'm really not that heart broke over it. They made this to seem like they were serios the last time they held the economy hostage with the debt ceiling. They kicked the can down the road until after the election so they could continue to point fingers and acomplish nothing. Now thats over, here it is.

And I'm really not upset they could not "lower" the raising of taxes. And I'm really not upset they could not "raise" the cuts in spending. The path we are on is not sustainable. HELLO!

 

And yes, my prediction is that they will still get something passed to push it off longer and soften the blow.



Edited by powerman 2012-12-31 8:15 PM
2012-12-31 8:18 PM
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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)
The Do Nothing Congress says the 112th Congress did a great job....


2012-12-31 8:28 PM
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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)
powerman - 2012-12-31 6:14 PM
spudone - 2012-12-31 6:17 PM
tuwood - 2012-12-31 12:11 PM

Did you guys listen to Obama's speech a little while ago?  I'm obviously not a big fan of his, but he seemed to be in full campaign mode demonizing/bullying the R's and joking around quite a bit.

Based on his speech I'm changing my prediction.  No deal, and we're going over.

Doing nothing is more financially responsible than anything they'll come up with.

The end game: with no deal, taxes for EVERYONE revert to old rates before Bush cut them.  Then Obama and the Democrats will turn around and offer a bill to cut tax rates on the middle class and the Republicans will have to say yes to it.  The net outcome is rates revert for the upper class, no matter what the Republicans do.

The fiscal cliff will also have more cuts than the Republicans will ever get through a deal.  But those cuts include military spending which is a big reason why they'd like to avoid it.  I think they'll broker a deal, even if it means turning their backs on Norquist for 1 day out of their lives.

I'm really not that heart broke over it. They made this to seem like they were serios the last time they held the economy hostage with the debt ceiling. They kicked the can down the road until after the election so they could continue to point fingers and acomplish nothing. Now thats over, here it is.

And I'm really not upset they could not "lower" the raising of taxes. And I'm really not upset they could not "raise" the cuts in spending. The path we are on is not sustainable. HELLO!

 

And yes, my prediction is that they will still get something passed to push it off longer and soften the blow.

Oh don't get me wrong - I think even the term "fiscal cliff" is something Congress fed the media, who then took it and ran with it.  It implies something Really Bad(tm).  As if oh... you know, actually paying our bills instead of borrow-and-spend is an awful thing.  Everything the cliff does, we've had before.  The economy isn't going to suddenly tank, aside from a few days of Wall Street freakout.

2012-12-31 8:51 PM
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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)
spudone - 2012-12-31 8:45 PM
vonschnapps - 2012-12-31 5:38 PM

We haven't had a leader for a President in a long time.  Obama is a true to the core Chicago Politician, the polls show the fallout will be on the Republicans, so no incentive to act as a leader.  In his last four years it wasn't until he took a beating in the polls that he actually to action...well not really action but a lot of talk about action.  The public has a short memory, we'll go over the cliff but it will more likely be a roll down the hill than a crash.

I'm still waiting for the Democrats "100 Day Plan" that they enacted when they controlled both House and Senate to save the country!

How would you run the executive branch to influence this hyper-partisan Congress?  Good luck.

 

Probably just as Ronald Reagan did.

2012-12-31 8:57 PM
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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)
vonschnapps - 2012-12-31 7:51 PM
spudone - 2012-12-31 8:45 PM
vonschnapps - 2012-12-31 5:38 PM

We haven't had a leader for a President in a long time.  Obama is a true to the core Chicago Politician, the polls show the fallout will be on the Republicans, so no incentive to act as a leader.  In his last four years it wasn't until he took a beating in the polls that he actually to action...well not really action but a lot of talk about action.  The public has a short memory, we'll go over the cliff but it will more likely be a roll down the hill than a crash.

I'm still waiting for the Democrats "100 Day Plan" that they enacted when they controlled both House and Senate to save the country!

How would you run the executive branch to influence this hyper-partisan Congress?  Good luck.

 

Probably just as Ronald Reagan did.

Hopefully without the same level of defense spending. Not dogging Regan, just saying we don't need it today... just staying on the theme of unsustainable spending and taxes.

2012-12-31 11:42 PM
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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)
Well it looks like they reached a deal. Go figure, JUST before midnight. Anyone else think that sounds fishy. It's the movie "wag the dog" almost. A little too Hollywood you might say, with all the production and what not.
2013-01-01 12:26 AM
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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)
They have to make it look like they are "working hard". Thay are all morons.


2013-01-01 7:14 AM
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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)
I think a rule that would help in instances like this or the upcoming debt ceiling drama (that's in 3 weeks though, who thinks that far ahead?) is to withhold funds from the offending candidates first. Getting ready to go over the debt ceiling, but you won't vote to increase it? We'll get by, by defunding your district first. I don't think any of them would be willing to protest so much if their re-election chances would be crushed like this would do to them.
2013-01-01 8:37 AM
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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)
Good theory Josh. But no way they'd put that in there.

I got our PAC email about the current package and it looks seriously like they have saved no money whatsoever.

Good news is that E-bikes have their credit back for 2013. Go buy one before that goes away!
2013-01-01 4:03 PM
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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)
2013-01-01 4:17 PM
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Subject: RE: Fiscal Cliff Watching Thread (There may be spoilers)
tuwood - 2013-01-01 2:03 PM

You just can't make this stuff up.

Deficit 'fiscal cliff' bill actually spends $330 billion more

Let me take this opportunity to quote myself...

Doing nothing is more financially responsible than anything they'll come up with.

Tongue out

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