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How accurate is the McMillan pace calculator for you? (Page 2)
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 2012-04-16 12:22 PM in reply to: #4151681 |
 Seattle |  Subject: RE: How accurate is the McMillan pace calculator for you?Personally I believe the calculator is pretty spot on. With the caveat that it's predicting more of a maximized potential. Meaning that you put in nearly perfect training and race day conditions are perfect. |
| 2012-04-16 12:46 PM in reply to: #4152560 |
Expert 732   | Subject: RE: How accurate is the McMillan pace calculator for you? Experior - 2012-04-15 9:59 PM JG_GreenCoast - 2012-04-15 10:04 PM For medium and medium-long distance it is ok, for short distances it is way off. For marathon I think it is 5-10 min fast and maybe the assumption is that you are putting in marathon mileage. My half marathon to 10k is accurate, but it is a minute too slow on my mile. Calculator is sort of all over the place in my opinion Please don't take this post the wrong way -- I'm just throwing this observation out there as something to think about. If it were getting me right for 10K - HM but off by a full minute for the mile, I'd be pretty concerned that I wasn't hitting my potential in those longer races. I haven't run an open marathon in a few years, but the calculator has been quite accurate for me from HM down to the mile, so maybe I'm just biased by this fact.... No offense taken. It is a function of more than that though. I put down a 1:29 in a HM in april and it tells me that my mile is about 5:35. I ran a 4:42 mile recently, so almost a minute. I think my age, body type, and athletic background factor in to this. A 22 year old like myself has more ability to run a fast mile (or all the way down to 200m) than someone in their 50s. The long distance predictions are based on the assumption that you have been putting in long distance mileage, and I am not currently doing that. So, short answer is yes, I am probably not hitting my potential in those longer races, but I am not also not necessarily training for them. Our natural SBR cross training probably makes us better short distance than average runner. I would assume this calculator is most accurate for pure runners. |
| 2012-04-16 12:51 PM in reply to: #4151681 |
Extreme Veteran 486 Syracuse, NY | Subject: RE: How accurate is the McMillan pace calculator for you? ?How accurate is the McMillan pace calculator for you?
I think the more pertinant question(s)are,"How does the unicorn breathe in space?" and "When is the next moon base party?" |
| 2012-04-16 1:35 PM in reply to: #4151681 |
Extreme Veteran 2263 Ridgeland, Mississippi | Subject: RE: How accurate is the McMillan pace calculator for you? meggfishy - 2012-04-15 11:51 AM I use the McMillan pace calculator (http://www.mcmillanrunning.com/index.php/site/calculator) quite a bit to set goals for races. It comes creepily close for anything up to a half marathon, usually within seconds. But it's never come anywhere close to predicting my marathon time, and I'm a relatively high mileage runner, consistently 60-70 mpw in training. Based on my 10 mile race time, McMillan predicts a 3:48 marathon. I feel like I'll run a 3:48 marathon right after I ride my pet unicorn to my moon base. Does the marathon time prediction work for anyone? Am I just relatively worse at the marathon distance? Mine's the exact same. My PR's are within a minute of my McMillan time up to a half. To run my projected marathon time, I'd have to focus on it pretty specifically, and I'm not going to sacrifice training for tri's to do that. |
| 2012-04-16 1:59 PM in reply to: #4153566 |
Resident Curmudgeon 25290 The Road Back Gold member | Subject: RE: How accurate is the McMillan pace calculator for you? meggfishy - 2012-04-16 11:42 AM the bear - 2012-04-16 10:40 AM meggfishy - 2012-04-16 7:44 AM Current marathon PR is a 4:04, which I ran during the March marathon. Ran it VERY conservatively on a unseasonably hot day. Do you not think that with ideal temps and aggressively appropriate pacing you would be a lot closer to the predicted 3:48? Possibly...maybe someday all of the factors will align! My May marathon is Flying Pig in Cincinnati, which sounds like a challenging course...so I'd be over the moon with sub-4. I found The Pig to be downright hilly and hurtful but fun. Best of luck to you. |
| 2012-04-16 3:17 PM in reply to: #4153736 |
Master 1439 Calgary, AB Silver member | Subject: RE: How accurate is the McMillan pace calculator for you? JG_GreenCoast - 2012-04-16 11:46 AM No offense taken. It is a function of more than that though. I put down a 1:29 in a HM in april and it tells me that my mile is about 5:35. I ran a 4:42 mile recently, so almost a minute. I think my age, body type, and athletic background factor in to this. A 22 year old like myself has more ability to run a fast mile (or all the way down to 200m) than someone in their 50s. The long distance predictions are based on the assumption that you have been putting in long distance mileage, and I am not currently doing that. So, short answer is yes, I am probably not hitting my potential in those longer races, but I am not also not necessarily training for them. Our natural SBR cross training probably makes us better short distance than average runner. I would assume this calculator is most accurate for pure runners. McMillan even says on the writeup somewhere that paces under 5K are not accurate - more guesstimate. You're not going to get someone's 100m dash time from a half-marathon. Once you're at least comparing slow twitch to slow twitch you have a chance (3K+?)
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| 2012-04-16 4:02 PM in reply to: #4153746 |
Regular 477 Washington, DC | Subject: RE: How accurate is the McMillan pace calculator for you? BooTri - 2012-04-16 12:51 PM ?How accurate is the McMillan pace calculator for you?
I think the more pertinant question(s)are,"How does the unicorn breathe in space?" and "When is the next moon base party?" The unicorn has a special helmet with a hole for its horn. And the moon base parties are every other Tuesday. |
| 2012-04-16 4:40 PM in reply to: #4151681 |
Extreme Veteran 511 Budapest, Pest Megye | Subject: RE: How accurate is the McMillan pace calculator for you? If I input my half mary time, my 5K time is kinda off (I ran 24 seconds faster) and my full marathon time is way off (16 minutes faster than what I can run or have run.) It might be that I do better at shorter distances since I have a tennis background. I did however put in 60-70 miles per week when training for the marathon with track workouts, tempo runs and long runs close to my marathon pace. Might just be that I had bad races since I've only done 3 marathons and I struggled to finish in all of them... Edited by goran007 2012-04-16 4:41 PM |
| 2012-04-16 9:37 PM in reply to: #4151681 |
| Veteran 189 | Subject: RE: How accurate is the McMillan pace calculator for you? I've found McMillan to be right on. |
| 2012-04-16 9:46 PM in reply to: #4154266 |
Extreme Veteran 486 Syracuse, NY | Subject: RE: How accurate is the McMillan pace calculator for you? meggfishy - 2012-04-16 5:02 PM Smashing! ;] BooTri - 2012-04-16 12:51 PM ?How accurate is the McMillan pace calculator for you?
I think the more pertinant question(s)are,"How does the unicorn breathe in space?" and "When is the next moon base party?" The unicorn has a special helmet with a hole for its horn. And the moon base parties are every other Tuesday. |
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