cadence.king - 2009-07-02 5:46 PM

karen26.2 - 2009-07-02 11:31 AM

LHablas - 2009-07-02 10:13 AM

nealphelps - 2009-07-02 10:05 AM

cadence.king - 2009-07-02 9:51 AM

nealphelps - 2009-07-02 9:35 AM

Obviously, Brent is interested although I question his Tom Boonen pick. 

My logic is:

... and he is in my roster for that reason.  If I put in Boonen, Farrar, and Cavendish, one of them is bound to win every single sprint on course. 

How bout them apples

I like your logic.  The only flaw in it that I can see is that unless something has happened that I do not know about yet.  They are not going to let Boonen ride this year because of the cocaine issue. 

You're correct, Neal...as of now, Boonen is on the outside looking in...from what I've read, his appeal is still pending and I believe a decision will be made today.

No - Boonen is my guy - he's gotta ride!  What was he thinking???

See! The ladies dig him!

Karen...you'll be happy to know that Boonen WILL be riding in the TdF...a French court apparently ruled in his favor and said that the ASO cannot bar him from riding.  Too bad this decision was made so late for sake of some of the fantasy games...I know he can't be picked up in the Velogames game, but perhaps he can be added to rosters in the Versus game.

New twist on Astana...they are going to toss JB and Lance in Sept. from the team, offer Vino a come back contract, and make Alberto the undisputed leader.  Watch for the potential internal fire works.  At some point, those loyal to Lance and Alberto could split the team.  Think Hinault and Lemond in '86.  Could be great drama.   This is a hard tour and I do not think you can win with a split team.  This could open it up for other teams.

Interesting, but from a purely economic perspective this makes no sense at all.  The marketing goodwill that JB and Lance bring to the table far surpasses anything that doper Vino and youngster AC can provide.  And with Astana still struggling financially, I'm guessing they'll take all of the marketing goodwill they can get their hands on right now.

 I didn't get a chance to read the article, but saw a blurb headline today where Lance states he's happy to ride in a support role if needed.  And from everything else I've read, there's no internal squabbling taking place.  JB and Lance know that the media and the other teams would love to manifest something for just the reason you pointed out, but I think they and the rest of the squad are above letting that happen.

Regardless, time will soon tell...

Found an interesting article that speaks to some of what you wrote...did you happen to see this?

http://redkiteprayer.com/?p=117

Vino is a doper, JB does not want him, team is owned by Vino's country and was originally formed for him, so this move does not suprize me.  I think the stress around the team being paid was about no riders from Vino's country (or the one's on the team were water carriers) and Astana did not want to pay for Lance's PR.  Their desired PR is to promote national pride in Vino.  

JB and Lance are back, so they will step into another team with a pro lisense and rebuild.  A big chunk of the team will follow them.

Great story on Yahoo...I like this perspective better than my above post....

For those privileged and masochistic enough to take it on, the Tour de France offers private agonies in the most public of settings.

For Lance Armstrong, the price of torture has always been offset by the spoils of victory, as he wheeled an inexorable path toward seven titles and a permanent etching in history.

Yet as he returns after four years to the scene where his legend was created, Armstrong does so with less in the way of obvious tangible recompense for his muscle-wracking output.

Incredibly, this man who blitzed the field for so long with his iron spirit and metronomic cadence enters the 2009 Tour – which starts in the principality of Monaco on Saturday – without any realistic possibility of winning it.

The politics of cycling are intricate and time-honored, and this sport is not a simple case of “best man wins.” From 1999 to 2005, Armstrong was the best man, yet he could not have enjoyed such an extraordinary level of achievement if not for the unheralded work of the team behind him.

This time, it is the 37-year-old Texan who is in the support role, charged with ensuring that the lead hope of the Astana team, Alberto Contador, is sipping champagne on the road to the Champs d’Elysees on July 26.

Contador won the 2007 Tour and if it weren’t for Armstrong’s unmatchable legacy and the stain of doping skepticism associated with modern-day cycling success stories, he would have been a huge international star already.

Without a pedal yet turned, the 26-year-old Spaniard is impossible to back at much better than even money to win the Tour, a line no doubt influenced by having cycling royalty in his corner.

Armstrong seems to be positively embracing the new role. But why will he not be out there leading the pack?

“Everyone has to go in and say, ‘I’m going to do this right,’ ” Armstrong said. “By the unwritten laws of cycling, you support the best man.”

Simply, it is felt that Contador’s claims are far greater, such is the nature of the team setup in this complex sport and its figurehead race.

“It is hard to find a better stage-race rider than Alberto,” team manager Johan Bruyneel said. “He has worked very hard and earned the right to represent our team as the leader.”

It would take a severe mishap from Contador – a crash, a couple of bad days, illness – for the Astana plan to be redrawn. Even then, it may be Levi Leipheimer, rather than Armstrong, who would be handed the No. 1 spot.

Armstrong’s performances since returning to the saddle have been mixed. He broke a collarbone in March and could only manage 12th place in the Giro d’Italia. The only victory of his comeback bid came two weeks ago in Nevada City, Calif. – not a major race.

However, by taking on the role of shepherding Contador, Armstrong could finally achieve something which he never managed during his peak – acceptance by the French people.

From the moment of his first Tour victory, he was never a popular champion, with a perception of coldness and arrogance turning off French fans. His inability to speak publicly in French fueled some negative sentiment towards him and even factors such as opposition to the Iraq war caused him to be singled out by detractors in latter years.

But by adopting the position of self-sacrificer, Armstrong may finally get a better response from the public, with Contador the beneficiary of his sporting largesse.

“Armstrong will probably be very good and play a great role in this Tour,” said Bjarne Riis, director of Team Saxo Bank. “But to be honest, to beat young riders like Alberto in the climbs, I don’t think it is possible. Astana is a very impressive team, but I believe that if they want to win the Tour they should have just one leader, and it should be Contador.”

Armstrong also is appearing to embark upon something of a charm offensive. Regular updates on Twitter have given greater insight into his life and with some of the shackles of past pressure lifted, he has a somewhat chirpier persona these days.

Part of his reason for returning was to raise publicity for his cancer charity, and that is one mission in which he can scarcely fail. Armstrong and LiveStrong go hand-in-hand, wheel-to-wheel if you like, and whatever your personal opinion of the American it is impossible not to respect his triumph over the killer disease.

Armstrong also hopes the attention of his return can do something to repair cycling’s shredded reputation after years of devastating doping revelations. He, like millions of cycling aficionados, wants the sport to be in the news for the right reasons.

He admitted recently that he doesn’t want his children to grow up knowing him as a standard-bearer for a ruined sport, rather than one of the finest athletes in history. Yet it remains to be seen whether cycling’s bid to regain credibility can realistically hope to bear fruit anytime soon.

In his farewell speech in 2005, Armstrong stood on the winner’s podium flanked by Ivan Basso and Jan Ullrich and demanded the public should “believe in these guys.” Sadly, however, both Basso and Ullrich, plus countless others, have since been hauled up on doping charges.

Cycling’s fight, like its most famous race, can seem endless and tortuous.

All I can say is WOW about Contadors ride today. I am thoroughly impressed with his improvement in the TT over the past 2 years. Even though Lance was only 10th today I still think he has great form beating Zabriske and Millar in the opening TT. Should be a great Tour.

Hard to tell how the top will sort out, but you did see some people fall out of contention...Mic Rogers and D Menchov, not sure I understand what happened to those guys.  Menchov tired from Giro?  Rogers is just a no show at this point. I had to dump both from my team quickly.  Thank god for the grace period. 

Good article about Columbia's train...this is how Mark C. gets it done...

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/all-aboard-the-columbia-train

What a great stage yesterday?  I was not drinking the "Lance Kool-Aide", but who knows.  If nothing else that was a memorable moment yesterday, I rank it up there with the "Look" that he gave Ulrich several years ago.

I also read that the split occured right in front of Contador so it was not like Contador was trapped when the split occured, but HE actually let the split happen.  We'll see what happens in the mountains.  I am guessing Astana wins the TT and Lance even gets to wear the yellow jersey for a couple of days.

Interesting analysis...  My thoughts for that would be: Why would that be a team tactic?  Why wouldn't you want Contador, Leipheimer, Kloden and Armstrong in that group?  Then Astana would have 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 6th.  They still have the opportunity to be 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th after today.

I was curious about that too.  The rule only states that a real gap is necessary to give different times.  Here is a copy of the rule.  It is not very specific.

ARTICLE 14
TIMEKEEPING
At a finish, all the riders in the same peloton
are credited with the same finish
time. At each real break, the timekeeper
records a new time. He officiates until
the arrival of the “broom-wagon”. He
also records the times of riders who
arrive outside the permitted times and
delivers this list, with the corresponding
times, to the chairman of the stewards
committee. All times registered by the
timekeeper are rounded down to the
nearest second, and only these rounded
times are taken into consideration
for the general ranking. The ranking for
time trial stages is determined by using
hundredths of a second, as several riders
may indeed finish within a second
or less of each other.

While that is true, I think it did not look great for Contador to miss the break particularly if he was the first rider where the break occured.  That looks like a mental error to me.  I still think that Contador will beat Lance once they get to the mountains (I will choose Contador and not Lance on my fantasy league), but yesterday did make me think that Lance has a better chance than I thought before. How quickly even a cynic like me is ready to drink the "Lance Kool-Aide".   While I still do not think Lance will win, I at least can visualize the possiblity at this point. At the very least, I thought yesterday made him look good.

...
I look at it from this perspective.  ....What we don't know is if Contador purposely let the gap happen.  In my cynical view, I tend to think that might have occurred.  So while he didn't go with the lead group, he 'helped' create the gap.  Or another way of looking at it....he prevented other GC riders from making the break with the lead group. 

..... Contador essentially got to rest all day.  And didn't lose much ground in the time standings.  Not at least so much that matters.  19 seconds isn't monumental this early.  However, with Lance having a minute on Schleck and Sastre, I would theorize that Astana could begin applying pressure on the other teams to separate the men from the boys REALLY quick in this race.  They know other teams aren't staffed well enough to hang with them. 

I think we will have PLENTY of time to see Contador v. Armstrong showdowns in the next few weeks. 

Interesing perspective...  I agree that the time is not a big deal, I agree that Astana will REALLY put the pressure on the other teams starting today in the TTT, and I agree that Contador is very stong in the mountains.  It would be pretty cool if it was actually a plan for Contador to slow the group down to put pressure on some of the GC guys.  Still, I think it would be a very gutsy move and I really do not see Contador doing that for Lance because even if the time does not mean much the perception does. It makes the "Lance Kool-Aide" (Have I used that too many times) that much stronger.

I really do not expect a Contador/Armstrong showdown because I do not think that Lance will be able to keep pace with Contador in the Mountains, but who knows.  That is why they ride the race.

Astana wins the TTT 18 seconds ahead of Garmin.  Cancellera is still in first by a fraction of a second, Lance 2nd, and Contador 3rd I think.

1.ASTANA 00:46:29
2.GARMIN - SLIPSTREAM  00:46:47
00:00:18
3.TEAM SAXO BANK 00:47:09
00:00:40
4.LIQUIGAS  00:47:27
00:00:58
5.TEAM COLUMBIA - HTC  00:47:28
00:00:59

Yeah, I would have liked to see him in yellow for a few days myself.  I just do not think he will be able to hang in the mountains although I would be nice if he could.  I sure wish that could have worked out that oooooooone more little second today.

I love the first week of the tour.  Lots of Sprints and other fun.  However, the race for first does not start until the first mountain stage.  AC is going to light it up and the Lance love fest will be over.  Don't get me wrong, I am a Lance fan and have been for over a decade.  Lance lost a huge amount of time relative to AC in a short ITT.  If he does not lose time in the mountains, it will happen in the ITT.

Why is no one talking about Levi?  He actually looks good.  Kloden could suprise.  The real story from the first week (in my opinion) is the race is about over.  TTT put so much time between Astana favs and others capable of making it a race.  Is it possible that all four of Astana riders capable of winning will have a bonk day and lose a chunk of time?  Can all the other rivals ride perfectly for the remaining stages? 

This will be an interesting race in it's own way.

Agree with you re: AC - what he did during the ITT says it all, even if LA can hang in the mtns.  Re: Levi, indeed he does look strong, but he's not the type who typically attacks in the mtns; still, I'm guessing he'll finish top 5.

Others who undoubtedly should make moves, starting in Stage 7 (first mtn-top finish):

Andy Schleck and Carlos Sastre, both of whom I anticipate will put pressure on AC.  Kloden will probably continue his top 10 trend and I believe Kim Kirchen and Roman Kreuziger may be top 10 candidates as well.  However, as you alluded, so much can happen in the mtn stages and we'll soon get a preview of the legit GC contenders very soon.