SBR Utopia Season II - OPEN (Page 52)

So, about that time.....  to Guess My Ironman Time!  I have ideas about what's possible.  Weather obviously a factor, I don't do well in the heat, but looks like a mid 70s day, which is perfect for me. 

Logs are accurate and up to date. I've been lucky (knock wood) to avoid interruptions from injury/family/work, so it's been a pretty consistent build since April

Last long course was 5:18 at Oceanside.   Only other IM Was IMAZ 2008 (59, 5:56, 5:35), but I was a completely different person then, in various ways (and more of a person then LOL)

Word is that this bike is going to be tough, and that 5:30 would be "fast".  But the real wild card -- isn't is always -- is the run.  Current plan is no heroic efforts until mile 15. 

Take your best shot   

LOL. 

I won't be insulted by any slow estimates, as I won't be inflated by fast ones.

So much can go wrong on IM day, too many variables.  Hopefully everything will go right, but I am betting not everything will

When it comes time for Kona, you can guess my time.  I want some payback. 

Rather than just take a guess, I've broken it down to an exact science.

57:14, 4:53, 5:52:38, 3:32, 4:28:12 = 11:26:19 (give or take a few seconds). 

* disclaimer is that I was only part way through my coffee when I calculated this so I may be wrong.

I'm probably going to do a 2 stage race on Sunday.  9.6 km TT in the morning and a 60 km road race in the afternoon.  I'm curious how you guys would pace a TT like that.  Here is the route.

http://www.mapmyride.com/routes/fullscreen/267399991/

Fairly flat with a few rolling hills at the start but then a nasty hill at the 7.5 km mark.  That hill took me 2 mins @ 365W on Monday to get up.  It will obviously be a hard effort the whole way but keep a bit in the tank for the hill?  Being point to point the wind could play a big role in how long it takes overall.  Prevailing winds are from the SW and the current forecast shows light wind (10 km/hr) from the SW that morning so from the left and hurting a bit.  

Looking at about 2 hours after the TT until the start of the road race.

What happens if you don't go up to 365 on the hill? With the hill being late and the mile or so after it being about where you'd step it up to anything you have left anyway, I'd probably just extend that idea out a little to include the hill. Power would be up more so on the hill, but it'd still burn like blazes after. Prior to the hill, I'd still be going hard enough that I may or may not be able to hit the section like that.

If you're wondering about having enough left for the road race, well, then probably have to back it down some for the TT.

Certainly don't have to go up at 365 - that was just going a bit harder for Strava...    I could easily get up it at regular TT power (think FTP in the 270 range).

there are hills on the island?!?!?!

Well you did beat my time. Just not anyone else's.

What are your goals for the day?  Do you want to try to optimize and get the best time without blowing up, or do you want to see how hard you could go in a TT and what effect that has on the second stage?

I've done a few races where I just wanted to see what would happen if I cratered (it's a terrible feeling, but good to be on speaking terms with it) or in a tri what would happen to the bike with a harder than "normal" swim (or run off a slightly harder than "normal" bike).  Very different strategy, and you have to be OK with plan B (more than a slight fade at the end) if you recover more slowly or emptied the tank too much in the first effort.

I'm guessing that you want to optimize, rather than test recovery, etc., so I'd personally (if my FTP were 270 - and it was about that a few months ago when I was riding with power and had a better sense of it) hit the first 7.5 just about 270 (starting very close to it - maybe high 250's - and building to it at the hill base, with excursions coming over the rollers), then hit the hill a bit over 300 (I'd think 310-320) and then mash the pedals for all I'm worth the last bit.  Average would be close to 300 I'm guessing...

For me, that would be about the best time I could do in the TT and still not feel like I'm shredded for the afternoon (recognizing that sprints would be tougher in that part!).

Just remember, this is BEGINNER triathlete, so this is worth what you paid (caveat donum acceptor - or something like that) - could be a really silly approach. 

Matt

Totally talking out of my a$$ here

I'd take 3 minutes and go up it at just below or at FTP, maintain power over the top and hammer the last 1.5K. 

You've got two hours' rest, and you can hide in the road pack for a while, that will probably wake the legs up a bit.

Arend...that sounds like a lot of fun.  As far as strategy though...there are really a lot of ways you can look at this.  First things first...how is the event "scored" and what are your goals?  Is it total time, or combined finishing places?  Most local stage races use combined finishing places (such as 4th in the TT and 2nd in the road race equals 6 points...and lowest point total wins overall).

That said, what are your goals?  Just like pro stage races, some riders are interested in winning just the TT, just the RR, or overall.  Given your anticipated competition, you may want to plan accordingly.  Maybe you sandbag the TT a hair to make sure you can stay in the lead group for the RR?  Or maybe you go balls to the wall on the TT to see if you can place well and just see what happens in the RR? 

This is where bike racing experience really comes into play and knowing your competition.  In tris, we basically race our own race to achieve the fastest possible finishing time.  With bike racing...finishing time means nothing...it's all about placing, and making the decisions that will boost your placing as high as possible.

What's the RR course like?  Is it hilly or have a few short and steep hills where attacks can be made?

If the RR course is flat, I would hammer the TT, gain as much time as you can, then sit in the pack and force everyone else to do the work to try and drop you.  If they ask you to take a pull...just shake your head no.

However if the RR is really hilly, then you may want to save some for the RR.  You may gain 20-30 seconds in a 10k TT, but if you get dropped early on in the RR...you could easily lose 5-10 minutes because you lost the draft. 

But who knows...maybe so many roadies are going to show up that you can't keep up with the lead pack on the RR no matter what you do in the TT...so maybe you just hammer the TT anyway to take what you can get.  Or maybe none of the strong roadies show up and you just crush the field in both races...  There really are a lot of variables going on...again...you can't treat it like a tri where you're racing your own race.  You have to race against the field.

Yeah I think I'll just be winging it based on who shows up.  I'll likely have a specific plan for the TT from Shane and then see what happens.  

RR is pretty flat with a few short hills, nothing really significant.  6 times around a 10k loop - same loop as the duathlon I won earlier this year.

Edit to add that I see one guy just posted a Strava file of the TT route from today.  He's strong and has the TT gear.

Just finished Coggan's "Training and Racing with Power" book today -- I learned a decent amount, but it was very lean on the triathlon aspect.  Has anyone read Skiba's "Triathlete's Guide to Training with Power"?  There's no ebook version of it, sadly....and I can't even remember the last time I read a real book...

Yes, both of Skiba's books. I found them very helpful in understanding a number of principles. Training & Racing w/Power is more cycling in general, so there are things we don't need to worry about so much. There is still a lot to get out of it. I keep going back to it every now and then to re-read some sections.

Alright, so it sounds like I should break down and buy real books.  Wonder if B&N carries them or if I should just buy online.

Being an engineer, learning about power is kind of fun.  Plus, now maybe I'll understand the conversations in here!