Anybody wanna predict my first marathon pace?

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2007-11-05 1:56 PM

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Subject: Anybody wanna predict my first marathon pace?
I have my first marathon coming up this weekend! Woo-Hoo! It'll be a small one, in Harrisburg, PA. My running pace has gotten faster with the Marathon training, and I'm not entirely sure what to predict...

Anybody want to play "Guess How Long it Will Take Jenny to Finsih a Marathon"? Sorry, my logs the past 2 weeks or so are a little sporadic... but here are a few details:

My 6 - 8 mile tempo pace lately is in about the 9:00 - 9:15 range.

My 2 longest runs were 19 & 22 miles. The 19 mile run was at about an 11:20 pace, the 22 miler was at about an 11:00 pace - BUT it was on a treadmill...

I did a 9 mile run today, trying to keep it slow, and ran that at about a 9:50 pace. I don't think I could hold that pace for 26.2, though. I'm a little worried about going out too fast...

I'm thinking somewhere in the 4:45 range... Anybody else care to guess??

2007-11-05 2:04 PM
in reply to: #1038657

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Subject: RE: Anybody wanna predict my first marathon pace?

a 10min/mile is around a 4:20ish,, and a 10:30 pace is around a 4:35 even if you did your nine &half pace then walked a min for the entire course your still under 4:40..

so my prediction is ..........2:08 ..... well for the 1st half and a finish time of 4:32

 

 

2007-11-05 2:22 PM
in reply to: #1038657

Iron Donkey
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Subject: RE: Anybody wanna predict my first marathon pace?

Utilizing your 12.9 mile run back in Oct. at 2 hr 16 min, and the 9 miler at 1 hour 32 min., that training time is fairly consistent.

I didn't look to see if those are fairly flat training routes or had some rolling hills, etc.  Additionally, what are the conditions of the race you will be partaking - hilly, temp, how far are the aid stations?  There's more, but those are the key ones.

I'm going to say you'll come in around 4 hours 38 min. 23 sec.

Just a word of caution - No matter how good you feel for the first 1/2 to 16 miles, don't try to push it - it'll hurt you in the long run.

Good luck! 

2007-11-05 3:10 PM
in reply to: #1038657

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Subject: RE: Anybody wanna predict my first marathon pace?

I will guess 4:12:19.

I think you will find the excitement of the race carry you for the first 5 or 6 miles.  You'll find a nice easy rythum for the middle 13 miles and then the last 7 or 8 miles with all be about finishing.  After mile 23, you won't even be thinking about it - just running.

 

Good luck! 

2007-11-05 4:22 PM
in reply to: #1038657

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Subject: RE: Anybody wanna predict my first marathon pace?

What marathon training plan did you follow and what was the peak weekly mileage.

Looks like your longest long run was 22 miles. (Treadmill Long Runs Count and are really great for mental toughness)

 

 

2007-11-05 4:27 PM
in reply to: #1038702

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Subject: RE: Anybody wanna predict my first marathon pace?
1stTimeTri - 2007-11-05 2:22 PM

Utilizing your 12.9 mile run back in Oct. at 2 hr 16 min, and the 9 miler at 1 hour 32 min., that training time is fairly consistent.

I didn't look to see if those are fairly flat training routes or had some rolling hills, etc.  Additionally, what are the conditions of the race you will be partaking - hilly, temp, how far are the aid stations?  There's more, but those are the key ones.

I'm going to say you'll come in around 4 hours 38 min. 23 sec.

Just a word of caution - No matter how good you feel for the first 1/2 to 16 miles, don't try to push it - it'll hurt you in the long run.

Good luck! 



Just to answer those questions... Terrain where I train (near my home) I would classify as having rolling hills. The course for my race is described as a "good PR course". It looks fairly flat for the most part, but there's about a 2 mile segment (beginning at about mile 17.5) that goes around a lake, and supposedly has some short, but somewhat steep hills. The current forecast calls for partly cloudy weather, with a high in the mid 50's. 4:38:23 sounds good to me....


2007-11-06 11:18 AM
in reply to: #1038657

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Subject: RE: Anybody wanna predict my first marathon pace?

Is this Bob Barker rules.. closet without going over??

I'll go 4:11:52   Now don't let me down!!

2007-11-06 11:23 AM
in reply to: #1038657

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Subject: RE: Anybody wanna predict my first marathon pace?
2007-11-06 11:29 AM
in reply to: #1038657

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Subject: RE: Anybody wanna predict my first marathon pace?
2007-11-06 11:47 AM
in reply to: #1038657

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Master
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Subject: RE: Anybody wanna predict my first marathon pace?
Pace will be faster than normal in the first half, and slower till mi 20, then really slow for 6.2 resulting in a time that's a more than you expected.

I'm an ace at this strategy.
2007-11-06 8:47 PM
in reply to: #1040186

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Master
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Subject: RE: Anybody wanna predict my first marathon pace?
Ok, you won't like this, but since it's your first one, don't worry about time....just have fun.

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