Predicted marathon time

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2006-08-18 9:40 AM

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Master
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Loughborough, England
Subject: Predicted marathon time

There are loads of websites that can predict you time for a range of events based on your time over a certain distance.  This is one of them that I found in another thread.

I will be running a marathon next year and was wandering if these websites are accurate or not.

To the marathon vets - if you enter your times for other distances does it predict your marathon time with accuracy?

2006-08-18 9:43 AM
in reply to: #515559

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Champion
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Evergreen, Colorado
Subject: RE: Predicted marathon time

I think they are good at predicting what you are CAPABLE of, but nothing can truly predict what your time will be because every course is different, weather will be what it will be, your training would have to play in, etc. etc.

So, that's my opinion.  Are you CAPABLE of running the marathon time it predicts?  YES.  Will you on the day you run your marathon?  Anything can happen.

2006-08-18 9:51 AM
in reply to: #515559

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Master
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Chesapeake, VA
Subject: RE: Predicted marathon time

I find McMillan to be pretty accurate in the reverse.  Another words, your marathon time is a good predictor of your half, 10k times, etc.  However, if you haven't run a marathon and don't have the marathon base under your belt, your 5k time is worthless as a predictor.  It might give you a time to shoot for, but it all comes down to training.  Over the course of your marathon training, you will get a good idea of your marathon finish time - assuming comparable weather conditions.  Either way, I believe your first marathon shouldn't be about time - your only goal should be to finish and enjoy the experience. 

2006-08-18 9:52 AM
in reply to: #515564

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Cycling Guru
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Fulton, MD
Subject: RE: Predicted marathon time
For the McMillan calculator he specifically says that it is "equivalent performance" and makes a HUGE disclaimer that it is not a time calculator.

If you follow his training zones and workouts on the bottom of the page, then yes, you should be able to hit the "predicted" time.

I put in my fastest 10k and it has me potentially running a 3:05. So when I started my latest round of mary. training I used those ranges it gave me. But my goal is slightly slower than a 3:05, so I plugged that in (3:15) and use those ranges as my real goal zones. In most cases I have been slightly faster than them, but I'm okay with that.

Going by my 10k predicted pace would be really hard in the later stages of the training ......
2006-08-18 9:52 AM
in reply to: #515559

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Pro
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Wisconsin near the Twin Cities metro
Subject: RE: Predicted marathon time
Here's a sample size of one:

Ran Grandmas a couple summers ago. Earlier that year I ran a 10k in about 35:30 (it was very early in the season just after x-c ski season ended, so I probably would have run faster if it was in June). Anyway, I plugged in the 35:30 for the 10k in the site you linked. Before I give the answer, I'll say that I felt my training at the time had me set up to run a 2:45 with no problem. However, race day brought a very strong headwind for most of the race. I ended up with 2:51. The calculator predicted 2:46:36. Take it for what its worth.

Prediction is one thing. Doing the training to get you to the point where you have the potential to run that time is very different.
2006-08-18 10:02 AM
in reply to: #515559

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Resident Curmudgeon
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The Road Back
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Subject: RE: Predicted marathon time
Yeah, with all the caveats mentioned so far, I find it to be pretty accurate, also find in more valuable in determining training paces. Now that I'm doing some sembalnce of HR training, I find McMillan's paces to be right on where my HR should be.

2006-08-18 11:22 AM
in reply to: #515559

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Coach
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Boston, MA
Subject: RE: Predicted marathon time

Bear and Rick covered it already. Remember that any calculator is just a tool to estimate what your potential COULD be considering PROPER training. You might have the potential to run a 2:30 mary but without the training and recovery it will be just that: "an nice guesstimate of what you COULD do"

2006-08-18 11:39 AM
in reply to: #515564

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Veteran
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Tampa, FL
Subject: RE: Predicted marathon time
jldicarlo - 2006-08-18 10:43 AM

I think they are good at predicting what you are CAPABLE of, but nothing can truly predict what your time will be because every course is different, weather will be what it will be, your training would have to play in, etc. etc.

So, that's my opinion.  Are you CAPABLE of running the marathon time it predicts?  YES.  Will you on the day you run your marathon?  Anything can happen.



I have to completely agree with the above statements. I have run 2 marathons and neither one was close to the predicted time. However, the calculator could not predict a sour stomach and a bum knee.
You should train for your best and prepare for the worst. As we always seem to say around here DFL > DNF > DNS

Best of luck!
2006-08-18 11:57 AM
in reply to: #515559

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Champion
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Chicago, Illinois
Subject: RE: Predicted marathon time
there is another theory you should train at a pace about 60 to 90 secs slower than the pace you want to run the race. Being a back of the packer I found that not to be so true atleast for us. In my case I am always slower at 26.2 miles than 20 miles. so if your trying to make a cut off and if its strict then make sure you train faster than you need if you can because when it comes to the race I alway finish slower than predicted time says I should.
2006-08-18 12:56 PM
in reply to: #515559

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Dallas
Subject: RE: Predicted marathon time
I plugged in my recent time for 5K, 15K and marathon. The outcome is somewhat accurate.

+++

20:22 5K
15K: 1:05:34 (predicted) // 1:08:05 (real time)
1/2 marathon: 1:34:09 // 1:32-33 (@ marathon)
20mi: 2:29 // <2:22 (@ marathon)
marathon: 3:18:33 // 3:16:5x (real time)

1:08:05 15K
5K: 21:09 (predicted) // 20:22 (real time)
1/2 marathon: 1:37:46 (predicted) // 1:32-33 (@ marathon)
20mi: 2:34:39 (predicted) // <2:22 (@ marathon)
marathon: 3:26:11 (predicted) // 3:16:5x (real time)

3:16:5x marathon
5K: 20:12(predicted) // 20:22 (real time)
15K: 1:05:03 (predicted) // 1:08:05 (real time)
1/2 marathon: 1:33:xx (accurate)
20mi: 2:27:54 (predicted) // <2:22 (@ marathon)
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