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Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time
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| General Discussion | Triathlon Talk » Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time | Rss Feed  |
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 2009-10-21 1:35 PM |
Champion  6503    NOVA - Ironic for an Endurance Athlete |  Subject: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon TimeThank you, BT Geniuses!!! |
| 2009-10-21 1:41 PM in reply to: #2471637 |
Coach 10487  Boston, MA | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time Ask me again on Jan 1st -- today probably something like 4 hrs or slower... |
| 2009-10-21 1:44 PM in reply to: #2471637 |
Champion 9600 Fountain Hills, AZ | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time Yes, you need a lot more long runs and fewer shorter runs runnign the exact same pace everytime. That won't get it done. |
| 2009-10-21 1:47 PM in reply to: #2471647 |
Champion 8540 the colony texas | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time I'm guessing for the next option you would have put down 4:40-4:50. unless you are sandbagging those logs  of course at the end of December I'll change my mind and put something faster down,, since the above is for pure motivation |
| 2009-10-21 1:50 PM in reply to: #2471637 |
Resident Curmudgeon 25290 The Road Back Gold member | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time Not a whole lot to judge your potential by (recent stand-alone, full-effort races), so kind of in the dark about what's your potential. |
| 2009-10-21 1:54 PM in reply to: #2471637 |
Pro 4277 Parker, CO | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time I looked at your race results. Most everything is around 930mm. Your marathon was well over that. Anything can happen but I would say at best around 4:30. |
| 2009-10-21 2:02 PM in reply to: #2471637 |
Expert 2555 Colorado Springs, Colorado | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time Based on your current training and recent race results it looks like about 4:30. However, you still have more than 2 months in which you can train more thoroughly. If you want a faster time you will need to run lots more, and you will also likely need to forego much of the upcoming holiday eating/drinking. If you could somehow increase your running to 40+ miles/week by about mid-November and keep it there until January 1 while maintaining the same pace you currently have for most runs and throw in a solid tempo run once a week, along with a couple 20 milers - you could go closer to 4 hours. FWIW, look at my logs. I'm currently training for a marathon next May and laying the groundwork now. When I start the more specific training I will be in good shape to really push. IMO too many people do far too little prior to starting a marathon program and then wonder why their results aren't quite what they wanted. |
| 2009-10-21 2:12 PM in reply to: #2471637 |
Runner | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time I don't know how much speed you can safely gain in two months. I'm going to say not much. Over 4:30 for a finishing time. |
| 2009-10-21 2:13 PM in reply to: #2471637 |
Master 1853 syracuse | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time looks like your almost at 30 mpw or so.... Id guess around 4:40-4:50 up that to 40-50 mpw, for a few weeks between now and race, and my guess would be 4:20-4:30 is there a prize? Edited by cusetri 2009-10-21 2:13 PM |
| 2009-10-21 2:14 PM in reply to: #2471637 |
Champion 6503 NOVA - Ironic for an Endurance Athlete | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time As I feel better, I will go faster and longer. I am on the Hal Higdon Intermediate I plan. Perhaps I should switch over to the Intermediate II plan since I am starting to feel strong on my 7 milers. More speed and more volume. |
| 2009-10-21 2:16 PM in reply to: #2471734 |
Champion 6503 NOVA - Ironic for an Endurance Athlete | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time cusetri - 2009-10-21 2:13 PM looks like your almost at 30 mpw or so.... Id guess around 4:40-4:50 up that to 40-50 mpw, for a few weeks between now and race, and my guess would be 4:20-4:30 is there a prize? Yes, closest guess gets a guinness at the Black Rose in Boston when I BQ. |
| 2009-10-21 2:17 PM in reply to: #2471742 |
Runner | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time pga_mike - 2009-10-21 3:14 PM As I feel better, I will go faster and longer. I am on the Hal Higdon Intermediate I plan. Perhaps I should switch over to the Intermediate II plan since I am starting to feel strong on my 7 milers. More speed and more volume. You're supposed to feel strong on those runs. If you weren't, I'd say you're on the wrong plan. |
| 2009-10-21 2:20 PM in reply to: #2471742 |
Master 1853 syracuse | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time pga_mike - 2009-10-21 3:14 PM As I feel better, I will go faster and longer. I am on the Hal Higdon Intermediate I plan. Perhaps I should switch over to the Intermediate II plan since I am starting to feel strong on my 7 milers. More speed and more volume. why change it now?? I wouldnt! you're doing fine. if you continue that plan and hit it, my official guess is 4:25:01...., but repost 1/1 as jorge said good luck! |
| 2009-10-21 2:48 PM in reply to: #2471763 |
Champion 6503 NOVA - Ironic for an Endurance Athlete | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time cusetri - 2009-10-21 2:20 PM pga_mike - 2009-10-21 3:14 PM As I feel better, I will go faster and longer. I am on the Hal Higdon Intermediate I plan. Perhaps I should switch over to the Intermediate II plan since I am starting to feel strong on my 7 milers. More speed and more volume. why change it now?? I wouldnt! you're doing fine. if you continue that plan and hit it, my official guess is 4:25:01...., but repost 1/1 as jorge said good luck! Because I don't want to run a 4:25:01 if I could have run a 4:00:59 |
| 2009-10-21 2:49 PM in reply to: #2471637 |
Champion 5782 Northridge, California | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time Your 10 miler and your most recent Oly run argue for about a 4:25-4:30, IMO. The training you do between now and January will be critical to determine whether or not you can run the whole thing and at a relatively stable pace; it really won't make you a significantly faster runner than you are right now. (That'll come with time.) |
| 2009-10-21 2:52 PM in reply to: #2471840 |
Runner | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time pga_mike - 2009-10-21 3:48 PM cusetri - 2009-10-21 2:20 PM pga_mike - 2009-10-21 3:14 PM As I feel better, I will go faster and longer. I am on the Hal Higdon Intermediate I plan. Perhaps I should switch over to the Intermediate II plan since I am starting to feel strong on my 7 milers. More speed and more volume. why change it now?? I wouldnt! you're doing fine. if you continue that plan and hit it, my official guess is 4:25:01...., but repost 1/1 as jorge said good luck! Because I don't want to run a 4:25:01 if I could have run a 4:00:59 But how do you know what you could have run, when you haven't even done the race yet? Switching up your plan now is not going to do a whole lot for you, in my mind. It's not like you will be able to say "If I had just done the other plan, I would have finished xx minutes faster." My advice: Stick to your plan. Run *your* race. Don't worry about time or pace or any of that crap. Your time will be what it will be. You either run a good race, or you don't. You are either prepared to run a BQ time, or you aren't. You won't know until the race is done. |
| 2009-10-21 2:55 PM in reply to: #2471637 |
Resident Curmudgeon 25290 The Road Back Gold member | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time What pace are you looking to run/training for? On what do you base that? Edited by the bear 2009-10-21 2:55 PM |
| 2009-10-21 3:13 PM in reply to: #2471844 |
Champion 6503 NOVA - Ironic for an Endurance Athlete | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time tcovert - 2009-10-21 2:49 PM Your 10 miler and your most recent Oly run argue for about a 4:25-4:30, IMO. The training you do between now and January will be critical to determine whether or not you can run the whole thing and at a relatively stable pace; it really won't make you a significantly faster runner than you are right now. (That'll come with time.) Red and bold excites me. I was not prepared for the run at all at the Oly b/c of achilles injury which limited training. My 10 miler was intentionally slow. I was using it as a training run. Ran the last 3 miles at 8:50 pace, which still felt conservative. In my feeble mind, that means that 4:10 could happen! |
| 2009-10-21 3:18 PM in reply to: #2471902 |
Runner | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time There is a big difference between a 10 mile run and a 26.2 mile run. |
 2009-10-21 3:18 PM in reply to: #2471637 |
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| 2009-10-21 3:23 PM in reply to: #2471742 |
| Champion 8540 the colony texas | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time pga_mike - 2009-10-21 2:14 PM As I feel better, I will go faster and longer. I am on the Hal Higdon Intermediate I plan. Perhaps I should switch over to the Intermediate II plan since I am starting to feel strong on my 7 milers. More speed and more volume. what is the difference in the plans,, More milage?? is it something that you could safely go to at this point. I'd stick with what plan you have. It's similar to the old bike expression,, it's not the bike Plan, but the engine |
| 2009-10-21 3:24 PM in reply to: #2471920 |
| Resident Curmudgeon 25290 The Road Back Gold member | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time Scout7 - 2009-10-21 3:18 PM There is a big difference between the last three miles of a 10 mile run and a 26.2 mile run. Fixed that for you. I would suggest you seek out and run a 10K or, better yet, a half marathon, to give you some logical and reasonable basis on which to base your time goal and, subsequently, your training. |
| 2009-10-21 3:27 PM in reply to: #2471637 |
| Expert 1123 Falls Church, VA | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time |
| 2009-10-21 3:29 PM in reply to: #2471933 |
| Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time the bear - 2009-10-21 4:24 PM Scout7 - 2009-10-21 3:18 PM There is a big difference between the last three miles of a 10 mile run and a 26.2 mile run. Fixed that for you. I would suggest you seek out and run a 10K or, better yet, a half marathon, to give you some logical and reasonable basis on which to base your time goal and, subsequently, your training. Good points. Agree completely. |
| 2009-10-21 4:11 PM in reply to: #2471902 |
| Master 1572 PA | Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time pga_mike - 2009-10-21 4:13 PM I was not prepared for the run at all at the Oly b/c of achilles injury which limited training. If you are prone to injury or have a previous running injury, and you're feeling good on the plan you are on now, i would stick with it. Big picture here. Achieving goals more slowly but staying injury free... Edited by gopennstate 2009-10-21 4:11 PM |
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