How to determine run race pace?

I didn't want to highjack Mike's training pace vs race pace hence I started this thread. many times I see/heard athlete complaining how their race performance falled apart during the run and based on Mike's thread we think part of th problme is 1) improper training (racing too fast and some times not fast enough) and 2) inablity to estimate race pace for training and racing.

For that reason and for all those wondering "what's my running race pace" and "what should my run race pace be" given your goal distance in terms of TRIATHLON I like to follow Jack Daniels VDOT paces and based on field tests and VDOT # I set up training paces for each athlete.

1^st of all let me establish one thing: even though I still use HRM with some of my athletes IMO the new GPS/pedometers gives me as an athlete and coach a better and more efficient way for training. As we all know HR can be highly variable and affected by other factors beyond training load and fatigue (in particular at high intensity sessions) for that reason for my coaching approach *I* prefer training by pace/RPE.

IMO using this the athlete not only training at the proper intensity, but also can adjust via RPE (since I offer a pace range for each intensity), learns what each pace ‘feels’ like and finally I can get copy of the files (Garmin, Polar, etc) and relate their pace, duration and terrain with the goal of the sessions and learn how fast an athlete adapts to a given session and how fast he/she recovers. IOW it helps me quantify load a bit easier. (Still feedback I get from the athlete is the most important thing)

Disclaimer – this doesn’t imply HR training is ineffective, I just happened to prefer the pace/RPE method.

About the tests: Lately I’ve been experimenting and modifying my approach and currently I suggest 2 tests: a 3-5 min all out run and a 20 min all out run done in different weeks. Both tests are pretty simple: warm up – 10-15 min easy pace, add 3-5 strides (30 sec each with equal duration jog as rest), main set – do the test, log distance which is very important (HR can also be recorded), cool down – 5-10 min easy running

The short test is focused to determine the athlete’s VDOT at VO2 max and the 20 min test is focused to determine the athlete’s VDOT at threshold. The reason for two tests is because some athletes have the top end speed for a short intense run but fall apart anytime the distance gets longer and vice versa. This gives me a better idea of the overall fitness level of the athlete and what do we need to address in training in case both tests deliver a different VDOT.

These tests are a bit intense but short enough that most athletes from most athletic backgrounds can do it and repeat frequently although for those coming off the coach or with no athletic experience 4-6 weeks of just short easy running should be a priority.
Once I have the VDOT obtained from the test(s) I then calculate the training paces (http://www.runbayou.com/jackd.htm) using the distance covered on the given time. (I approximate the distance to nearest distance available on the calculator; when in doubt use a lower VDOT #) at which the athlete should strive to do most runs

i.e. an athlete with a 50 VDOT will do most Easy pace (E pace) runs at 8:32 min/mile and most Marathon pace (M pace) runs at 7:17 min/mile. Since RPE plays a big factor the athlete has a some freedom to adjust to in case for the given session he/she is not feeling good enough to meet the pace or OTOH he/she is feeling great and can go a bit faster. Hence I set up the training pace zones as follow:

·          Z1 –  Easy pace = < to Easy pace
·          Z2 – Steady pace = E pace minus 5 sec to M pace plus 10 sec
·          Z3 – Marathon pace = M pace to T pace plus 10 sec
·          Z4 – Threshold pace = T pace to I pace plus 5 sec
·          Z5 – Interval pace = I pace to>

As I said above; the athlete should always strive to run at the VDOT defined pace but can use the pace ranges to adjust the pace based on RPE for a given session/day.

Now the good stuff – Based on my racing experience,  the guys I coach plus that of others coaches I interact frequently, we’ve indentify that the open run projections on the VDOT tables can be related very well for Tri run racing and you can see this below:

·          Sprint Pace is 10k Pace
·          Olympic Pace is HM Pace
·          HIM upper limit is Daniels equivalent Marathon Pace (95%T pace on average)
·          HIM lower limit is 90%T pace on average (adjusted from HIM upper limit)
·          IM upper limit is 80%T pace on average (adjusted from HIM upper limit)
·          IM lower limit is 75%T pace on average (adjusted from HIM upper limit)

Below is a table created by Ale Martinez (borrowed from a thread at slowtwitch and available at tri-organic.com)

Now please keep in mind that the above race paces and pacing suggestions on table are just general guidelines of what an athlete could be able to accomplish given his/her current fitness based on field testing, however to be able to realize that potential the athlete STILL needs to do the specific training.

Also, the athlete will need to do race rehearsal sessions to dial into the correct run pacing for the given distance he/she is training for. It is vital to consider swimming and cycling fitness, IOW an athlete can be a great runner but weak in the swim/bike hence even when on paper he has the potential to produce a good run (using the info provided) the performance won’t be achieved as the swim/bike will limit performance. Through training the optimal race pace should and can be determined.