October 2012 Election Swings: my thoughts.

The stock market is less a result of the adminstration and more a result of continuing easy money policies by the Fed and the fact that they have made treasuries all but worthless.  People are chasing yield not showing confidence in the market.

I was going to say the same thing.  QE has really beefed up the stock market.  It's a sugar-high.

Did you think that the 2008 primary was a CJ as well? (I won't use the full term because I think that belongs in TAN, not a serious discussion).  You had Hillary, Obama, Biden, all of them took turns attacking each other.

This election is a bit like the 1980 election actually.  Ronald Reagan was not the frontrunner, was a governor of a left/center state, and did not win hands-down. 

If RR ran today, he'd get killed by the far-right.

If you read some Austrian Economics (far more accurate with the "real world", than Keynesians/Monetarists that most governmental types project) on recoveries following credit collapses, the average recovery should take at least 10 years. That would seem to be the exact situation we are in and will continue to be for at least the next 4 years IMO.

Just like people are falling for whatever it is that Romney is pitching. I still have no clue. But I'm sure he really will try to fix our country and ignore the nearly $1,000,000,000 that has been thrown his way. He most certainly will not do whatever those people want from him.

Yep.  The market hit record highs during the Great Depression.  The stock market does not reflect economic stability and strength.

BO has been a major disappointment, that's true, but many folks agree the economy IS getting (slowly/marginally) better.   I'm unsure how much his policies had to do with it, but he's the guy driving the truck out of the ditch right now.  

I'd like to see something different, something better; but Romney has given me NOTHING to get my vote.  He's professionally inconsistent in his statements, his tax plan may or may not work but he won't tell us any details, and he's in the $$$ pocket of a very small handful of uber-rich donors who have their own agenda that is not in MY best interest.  And I want to see those tax returns-not because he HAS to, but because it's what we've come to expect of the people running for the office.   

I predict on Election Day, BO wins in a BIG way.  Romney supporters will answer a phone survey and state their voting intentions, but I have a 'feeling' a large group of his "supporters" just don't trust his background/character/policies/religion enough to get off the couch and pull a lever for him.  Congress returns even more divided and contentious than before and still nothing gets done, cuz it's not about representing, It's about re-elections and power and perks.

Our system is broken, maybe beyond repair, and I'm afraid the next serious "movement" (Tea Party, Occupy etc) has the potential to become a dangerous, possibly violent revolt.

TERM LIMITS!

Um, no.  Most right-of-center people despise BO so much that they'll vote for any alternative.  Myself included.

Agree, IMHO the pollsters have been falsely inflating this election to be as close as it is.  If you look at the internals of just about every poll that has them running close they're sampling democrats at a greater turnout percentage than there was in 2008.  There's no fairy dust that will have that kind of turnout for Team O.  It's just not going to happen.

That's why the Dem's are trying to excite the base at this point, but as was mentioned even the base isn't that excited anymore.

x2

and can congress really be more divided?

You hear a lot about people that voted for BO in 2008 that won't vote for him this time around.  I think there are VERY few people that voted for McCain that would switch to BO.

I think you'll be surprised.  I am pretty sure Democrats outnumbered Republicans in '08, and the disparity should be wider in '12 thanks to a stronger registration effort on the Democratic side.  No doubt it will be a close election...but I think Obama gets the electoral victory.  

Tonight will be interesting.  Romney's foreign policy is scarily similar to George W. Bush's.  I have to think most Americans don't want neo-conservatives returning to the White House.  

My question is what group is going to turn out in greater numbers for Team O this time around?  There was the highest voter turnout in 2008 since 1960 with Obama tapping into young adults, college students, minorities like nobody had ever done before.  There may be more registrations, but if they're not excited then they'll stay home and watch American Idol.

Most of the polling models are counting on the 2008 kind of turnout numbers and if they're right it's close.  If they're wrong then it's a Romney blowout.

Either way, we'll both find out in a few weeks.  

Fixed it for you

Dang it!  Why can't you and tuwood be my neighbors?  I'd be rollin' in extra dough after winning bets with you guys.  

I've been looking at all the polls myself.  Please paint me the scenario of the Romney "blowout."  Gallup's poll was the outlier...please explain how all the other polls are flawed, yet Gallup's outlier is the only valid poll.

That's the REAL fix. 

Watching the "debate" last night left me with one impression.  That being the polls showing Romney above 50% are accurate.  The reason I say this is that Romney acted like someone who only has something to lose and Obama looked like someone trying to make up ground.  I think the parties internal polling data show this as well which was reflected in their performance.

I've seen a few tie scenarios.  That would be amazing to see. 

If there's a tie in the electoral college, the current congress (mostly Republican) votes for the prez and the current senate (mostly Democrat) votes for the VP. 

What I'm not clear on is does it have to be Romney/Obama/Biden or Ryan?  Or could the Congress say "ok, we elect George Banatz!" 

What would happen if there was a tie?

I think it would be Romney/Obama.  But maybe you have different theories.