I'm calling the election: Romney will win (Page 2)

The problem is the higher unemployment rate is largely and invisible consequence.  People do not connect the two so they do not feel they need to make a choice.  That has been a huge problem with a lot of economic policies.  the downside effects, higher unemployment driving costs up etc. are difficult for the average person to connect to the goodies they get.

Think of the country as the Titanic.  You cannot move a large ship quickly one direction or the other.  That is part of the reason Obamacare was so poorly received.  You cannot get elected on a platform of true fiscal responsibility you will get eviscerated by the other party and in the media and to be truthful the American people.  If you threaten to take away their drugs, and by that I mean the fiscal drugs the people get, they will react poorly.  You cannot make big changes or all you will hear is choruses of "Hands Of My Government Bennies!!!"  People want to blame the government for all sorts of ills but it is we who are responsible.  It is we who keep buying into the gimme gimme that the pols use as stock in trade.  It is we who think we are entitled to have other people pay for the government because they make more than we do or they are richer than us.  As much as I would like to see more and better fiscal responsibility in Washington, I would rather have small incremental changes than no changes at all.

FWIW the markets have Obama at about 63-65% chance of being reelected.

I predicted Obama in the last prediction thread due to demographics working in his favor and a slowly improving economy and jobs picture.  I still predict he will win.

I also trust Nate Silver, and his electoral vote prediction has never had Romney even close to winning.  If you haven't heard of him or followed his blog, check it out.  In 2008, he accurately predicted the presidential result in 49 of 50 states, and called all that year's Senate races correctly. He was way more accurate than any name pollster.

FiveThirtyEight blog

For the life of me... how is voting for the person I feel is right for the job, and not voting for the guy that I think is running the country into the ground... a waste.

Voting for the same thing expecting different results is a waste to me. Why even bother toleave the house.

I don't view voting 3rd party as throwing my vote away as I live in a state that is sure to go to Romney. Idaho would never give our whopping 3 electoral votes to Obama so I can vote for Johnson without hurting Romney's bid to beat Obama.

Now if I lived in Ohio I would vote Romney rather than Obama. Not my ideal candidate but the stakes are too high this go around, Obama is too dangerous in a second term IMO.

Obviously it's not a done deal and pictures of Romney defiling a toaster could emerge this weekend, but I think there's virtually no chance Obama can win at this point.

Nobody in the history of Gallup Polling has ever lost after having a 50%+ lead at this point in the race.  Romney is up huge in early voters (52%/46% according to Gallup).  In order for Obama to eek out an electoral college victory the popular vote would have to be within 1% or 2%.  It is impossible for him to win with a 5%+ delta nationwide.

Almost all of the polls showing the race close in the statewide races are assuming a turnout rate identical to 2008 where the Democrats were energized like never before.  For various reasons Obama has ticked off both ends of his party and he has reduced support in almost every demographic.  The turnout will not be good and it's already showing in the early vote swings towards the R's.

So, overall barring any nefarious pictures coming up in the next few days, I predict landslide Romney with 300+ electoral votes.

Can I have $1000?

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Amen, brother.

You guys seem pretty hopeful... I just do not "feel" it. I know Obama's performance is hurting him. this election should be a slam dunk for anyone. But people do not seem to get excited about Romney, and he has problems himself. Ryan was another bone thrown to the far right that did nothing to "gain" votes and probably lost some moderates.

I think this election will come out to who shows up at the polls. Lot's of unexcited people will not show up for Obama, but I do not see a lot of swing voters going out of their way for Romney. Obama should have already had his bags packed, but the fact that it is too close to call, and he is the incumbent, tells me we are probably in for 4 more years.

Ha!  And no.  

Wow, I did not know Romney wanted unaffordable health care.

These wedge issues are nothing more than propaganda. If Romney is elected, he will not lift a finger to change rights for gays, or do anything for RvW. Candidates only use the issue to pander to the base, and vilify the other guy.

I certainly could be wrong, but I think the media is doing their best to mask the enthusiasm for Romney.  Obama had a HUGE enthusiasm gap in 2008 and this year he's trailing in the enthusiasm category which is bearing out in the early voting numbers. 

I pretty much agree with pman here.  I don't see RvW being overturned under a Romney administration.  However, good chance our next POTUS will be appointing 1 or 2 supreme court judges.  That's something to ponder...but I am much more concerned with the economy.  I know there are lots of people that feel just like Tony...my DW included!  However, she has been very disappointed with Mr. Obama.  This may be the first time in her life that she votes for a non-democrat. 

I think that is the point.

Exactly what do you propose the President do for gay rights? He is the Executive branch, not Legislative. Even Obama dragged his feet on DADT, but that is the only one he can do something about.

You could make that same argument about most things presidential candidates will put on their election platforms.

You can't "overturn" Roe v Wade. It was a SC ruling, you can't overturn it. You first have to have a case to rule on. Pro life would want the fetus to have rights. You have to get a SC to grant rights to the fetus. Then you have to decide when the fetus's rights supersedes the mothers. That is not happening. Sounds great in theory, but legally it is so radical, it is not going to happen.

I agree, but it does not change reality. I did not vote for Bush just because he wanted a Constitutional Amendment to ban gay marriage. I mean there is no way HE could make that happen.... but it was just so so wrong on so many levels I do not have the time to write them all out. But trust me, I did not loose a wink of sleep waiting for him to push for such an amendment when he got reelected.... and if you recall, the Legislature didn't lift a finger for it either and they knew they had a blank check.

As opposed to the Obama/Romney debates where we had 2 candidates lying out their teeth about anything and everything that the American people want to hear? That did even more to convince me that I couldn't possibly vote for them.