Is 4:30 doable for me? (Page 3)

spudone - 2011-05-26 12:11 PM Need to start a pool and see who comes closest to predicting Nate's splits

:33/2:25/1:37 +:03 for transitions

4:38

Edit:  Nate, I wish you luck and truly hope you show I was too conservative!

:31:30  i am betting short this year

2:17:30 course is fast

1:37:30   12 mile hill hurts at the end

2:30  in trans, these guys have a nice setup there

i am pretty sure that is 4:29:00

I am pulling for you Nate, and i hope to see you not too much after that at the ice bath that awaits.

going off bikes splits from past years of top 10 guys. Guy went 2:14 last year and it was 58 miles, this year is 56 and one less rolling hill. top 5 all went around 2:20, less 5 mins for 2 less miles and those same guys go 2:15 +/-. This is all specualtion, but i love to speculate, wanna do an over under for my fat butt?? LOL

I read too many results pages....i am obsessed.

My money is on Nate, care to wager a 4 pack of boddingtons??

spudone - 2011-05-26 11:11 AM Need to start a pool and see who comes closest to predicting Nate's splits

Not knowing Nate at all, I'll play:

32  A little faster than predicted since the course is supposedly short

2:24  Hoping Nate rides somewhat conservatively to save his legs for the run

1:29  Having saved his legs for the run, he gets just under his goal time for the run

3 min for T1 and 1.5 for T2

Total= 4:29:30 

No - AG only. I prefer to race AG and beat the 'elites!'

I think you are doing Patriot, 2009 the swim course was short and 2010 the swim course was long.

If you look at top AGer who did the race both years you'll see big swing between their splits. Look at Lisbeth Kenyon who won the women's race as a good example.

Until race day and buoys are set up, hard to know about the swim distance. I heard a lot of joy in T1 in '09 and a lot of grumbling in T1 in '10 when folks looked at their watches to see their swim split.

I did the race in '09 and had a 33' swim and was about 20th slowest swim split. Last year I worked swim exit.

You should consider the swim distance variable in your time estimates.

To be honest, when I registered for the race back in December, racing in the Elite wave didn't even cross my mind. I had just gotten a diagnosis of Achilles tendonosis,  wasn't able to run at all in January or February, and at that point I wasn't even sure how my Achilles injury would pan out. Had I know that I'd fully recover and get up to 45-50 mpw of running by this point, I may have changed my registration. At this point, I don't think it's worth contacting the RD. Maybe for future big races I will register for the elite wave if it's available.

Bryan, I very much respect your imput and admire your training and race results.

The April 10K was after not running in January or February due to an Achilles issue and on 5 weeks of very easy running (in the 8:00 - 8:30 range) without any speed work. I received PT and slowly eased back into running. I think that my 5k from December, where I ran 18:15 is more accurate, and I think my fitness is now a bit better then what it was in December. Based on a 18:15 5k, my open 1/2 marathon time is closer to 1:24.

The swim is definitely my weakest link, and I've put in around 40,000 yards/month since January. I'm around 6:00 for a 400 SCY and around 7:00 LCM. In the sprint tri that I did a few weeks ago I was at a 1:30 pace for 1/3 mile, but I was pretty conservative with my pace. The swim distance in this race has been pretty inconsistent in the past, so I'm not sure how close to 1.2 miles it'll be. I have done one OWS so far this season, around .9 miles, and my pace was relaxed at around 1:40/100 yard pace.

In terms of the bike, I'm not the one who said sub 2:20. My goal is 2:25, and if I go under that it'll be happy. I'm pre-riding the course this Saturday, so I should get a good idea of what to expect based on my time and power numbers, and I'm also doing an OWS at the race venue with some teammates. 

I think that :33, 2:25, 1:30 is doable with proper nutrition, pacing, and weather. Factor in transitions, and, if everything goes well, I may be close to my goal. Of course, I could also blow up and finish around 5:00.

Good luck!  We'll be anxious to see the results!

good thread with great discussion.

IMO, your putting way too much pressure on yourself Nate.

4:30 is just a time, go out and give it your best and let the time happen on it's own.

I've seen the HIM distance humble many who were capable of better--

FTP starts to mean less at this distance....the trick once you hit the HIM is what % of FTP can you hold for 56 miles and still run?

That is the piece of data we dont have and would be usefull.....I rather have a FTP of 3.8 and be able to hold 85-90% than 4.0 and only be able to hold 75-80.

The field will be littered with folks with 4+w/kg FTP walking the run who have not estabilshed what they can realistically hold and run.

Of course, the best way to understand this is to race lots of Halfs.......

lasty, you got some fast holks here, who've raced dozens of halfs between them, offering up solid opinion......if 4:30 was glaring based on what you've presented, they'd surely say so. 

the thing is, it's just not glaring, but it is possible....IMO, you're going to be close.

I think it helps to ignore all these time goals and do your best......

I would also look to answer some questions during the half you don't have the answers to yet....so, when it's all said and done, you can improve......so when you go 4:37, identify what is keeping you from 4:30.  This is very important....you don't want to come back here and start talking about things that you cannot control.....you have what you have to race, and your achilies injury is not something you can control going forward--so it cannot be a reason why you can do better next race. 

Your times are your times--that's why it is best to ignore the times and race.  Your 5k in dec is not more indicative than your 10k in April.  What you do TODAY is more indicative than both the 5k and 10k.  What you actually do, each and every day, is what you are capable of.  The beauty of this sport is that you can choose to step that up--that part is up to you; as long as YOUR best is the goal.

dont cherry pick your results to predict future results.

my point is we can debate all day what your time will be......You have an aggressive goal, which I love...but when you have an aggressive goal, and open it up for debate; you start to lose focus....suddenly you are competeing to prove someone else wrong......you can find yourself searching for justification within your efforts as to how it is possible; and we people will find lots of stuff to show us we can do something--just be careful not to put the blinders on.

oh yeah, have fun too.....

ps, I have no clue what you are going to do, and good luck!

Interesting thread. From all the experienced folk who have weighed in, it sounds like the key variable is how much to hold back on the bike to avoid breaking down on the run, which is where big time can be lost.

So I'm curious: how much do we know about what riding at, say, 85% vs. 75% of FTP does to the ability to run a HM, from a physiological perspective? And how trainable is the tolerance for this? I'm guessing it's not about energy availability, since riding at the two intensities has a similar cost (10% higher wattage probably requires about 5% more calories for same distance covered). Is it the effect of accumulated waste products on the ability to maintain run form for 90+ minutes?

10% is actually a pretty big difference in power, especially the larger the number. I have done 3-4 hour rides in the 235 range for power, which is around 75% for me. If I tried to do a 4 hour ride at 85% (265-270 watts) I'm pretty sure I wouldn't make it.

My goal for my HIM is 250 watts, around 78% power, which should allow me to have a good run.

took deeper look at your logs....lots of good training.

I think you'll be close, though I do not know the course. 

Only last thing I would suggest is how you are going to distribute your watts, when and where more so than the overall average.

dont be so married to that little display!......remember, it is a race.....

Yes, that's certainly true. And I understand the guidelines on % FTP for different duration events, such as an HIM bike leg. What I'm curious about is what we might know about the physiology behind this, i.e., what are the different elements of fatigue. In particular, what systems are being fatigued when engaged in non-impact activity below aerobic threshold for a couple of hours? 

Today I rode one loop of the 2-loop bike course, and I can see why it's considered a fast course. I took it very easy and only averaged 181 watts, which is about 55% power, as I have a half marathon tomorrow. On race day I plan on averaging around 250 watts. With 181 watts I was still able to be over 20 mph, and that was with close to 10 stops to regroup with teammates. I think that I could average 23-24 mph on 250 watts.

Here's the info on the ride from Garmin Connect: http://connect.garmin.com/activity/88541853

I experienced the same thing... barely pushing and I was over 20 EZ...

good luck with your 4.30; I will try to brake 5.

Do not over swim, you will regret that. Swim at an effort that you are never breathless. 30min+ swimming hard is long enough to have you walk the half marathon.

Take what ever time you get. Nobody wins it on the swim, but many solid athletes loose it there. They just don't know it. Those are the ones that have a "great swim and bike" but poor run.

Skiba, Coggan, Endurance Nation: bike power 80-85% NP in order to run to your potential

Run: few good tri calculators exist, summed up, use VDOT based marathon pace as target

       1:23-1:24 open yields pretty close to 1:30 HIM split, providing:

      All race specific training complete, bike pacing correct, feeding hydration on target up to the run portion, bike calories feed the run, continued feeding/ hydration, core temp control during run

Now, given all of this, I have seen many strong athletes crumble for poor race execution. Make sure you are not one of those. Your numbers are solid, but I hate to say this, they are irrelevant unless you master how to execute the race day.

Good luck. You have what it takes. Execute it now.