Is 4:30 doable for me? (Page 4)

The HIM I did last September was a nice mid-70 degrees during the run.  The one I did the month before was 95 degrees.  You can guess which one I blew up on...

adapt to conditions.  this is why time goals are very tricky and dangerous!

read Fred's RR from Eagleman last year.  he went top 10 in his AG (very good).....he adjusted his expectations/ability based on the conditions.

Also, look at his swim split from 2010 and 2009.....40 minutes in 2010...31 in 2009!!  going into the swim with an expectation/time goal will mentally screw with your whole day!

he than goes 7/388 on the run....why?

because smart athletes can pass by those that blow themselves up~!

there is ample opportunity to learn through others on this site, but you have to be willing to learn.....

im not saying anyone here is not willing to learn; just making a general point....adapt to conditions; hard to do with a set time goal in your head.......

good luck!

You beat me to it! My goal for the half was a 6:25 pace and going under 1:24, but the problem was that I didn't end up running the most direct line and, according to my Garmin, added .23 miles onto my run. I know this always seems to be the case, and I've seldom run a race where the race distance I get on my Garmin is actually less than advertised. I was a bit upset at the end of the race, but can take solace in knowing I did average a 6:24 pace, and finished 19/5217. I think that the humid conditions also slowed the field down a bit, as that time would have been closer to 25th-30th in previous years.

I agree that shooting for a 1:30 in the HIM may be asking for trouble. I'll have to go by RPE and see how I'm feeling. If it happens to be a cooler day and I feel great after the bike it may be possible. Otherwise, I'll just do as best as I can.

I am not racing with time goals, he is. I sit down in the morning, examine the weather forecast and actual conditions at each start and end of bike and run, than I make a decision on how many calories, sodium and pacing corrections for environmental conditions. I do not need to say that. that is more than obvious that one will not bike the same power or run the same pace at 70F and 20% humidity or 90F and 78% humidity. 

I fully agree that calculators can lead into a huge mistake, but one should train and race prior with one to establish the validity as it applies to him or her. Apples to apples only, calculators can give an idea that should be tested in training. Profile, wind, temp, humidity need to be accounted for.

IF .78 with his fitness is leaving some time on the table, but I would go with that if it is going to lead into a super strong run. Time will be lost overall, but will leave him with a great feeling at the end of the run.

I'm doing the same race and if you see me...you didn't make it

Hey Nate if u see a bunch of guys drafting behind u, don't be surprises!

including me lol

I just did some new power testing today and got a new FTP of around 350 watts, doing 368 watts for a 20 min test.

Is it advisable to up my goal power for the race? 80% of 350 would be 280. Maybe a happy medium of 265 would make sense, which should leave my legs fresh for a good run.

Have you done any 2-3hr rides at 265?  At 280?  Those are much better ways to decide that a 20' test.

I have a 37 mile loop that I try to ride a few times each month. It usually takes around 1:35-1:40, and I've been around 270 watts for that distance. I'm planning on trying to hold 265 or so on a longer 60ish ride tomorrow morning.

Your ride tomorrow should be a fairly good indicator.  Sounds high based upon 270 for your loop.  Am surprised you don't have more longer ride data to work off.

You are obviously a strong athlete.  But it sounds to me like you are looking for excuses to push the limits in your HIM.  That's often a recipe for distaster in long course, especially a first-timer (regardless of ability).  Just an honest observation on my part.  Take it for what it's worth.  And whether you go 4:20, 4:30, 4:40,..., I sincerely hope you have a good race.

I'd rather be conservative and leave a little time on the course, feeling great when I cross the line then go out to hard on the bike. I'm definitely not trying to pull a Chris Lieto here!

I'll see how I'm feeling after tomorrow's ride/run and somewhat base my race goals on that.

Good luck - plan for the perfect execution and your best time will come. Don't let the numbers get to your head. Bike smart and run strong. If you negative/even split the run on the HIM your doing well!

x2.  5 Watts one way or the other is not going to make or break your race, especially with an FTP as high as yours.  Such fine-grained distinctions are easily superseded by other things (testing error, how you feel in the moment, race tactics, etc.).

did u ride it today?

it was wicked windy tho... hopefully on race day is not like today...

good luck!

Awesome job Nate! 

I just wanna reply that Nate is a freaking monster. Top 10 overall, his bike split is skewed because of a crash while grabbing a bottle at an aid station or it woulda been faster, to add insult to injury, he tossed a water bottle outside of the "designated" area just after the crash and accrued a 4 min penalty...which i think is BS, a little harsh, and crap luck. He woulda killed 4:30.

Congrats Nate, you are extremely impressive. It was a great pleasure meeting you.