I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

megtrow - 2010-09-15 9:09 AM Why wouldn't they go hiking? They were on vacation. They were visiting Iraq Kurdistan, not Iran, and that area is actually very safe and quite popular with tourists. The fourth member of the group, who skipped the hike due to illness, has said in interviews that they were planning to visit Ahmed Awa, which is a very popular mountainous spot with a famous waterfall. They were recommended this place by taxi drivers, other tourists, hostel employees... and nobody warned them of danger due to proximity with Iran's border (although the Ahmed Awa area is definitely right on the border of the two countries). They mistakenly crossed the border while hiking, and then were picked up as we know of.

From the viewpoint of a traveler, a hiker, a young person who likes to see the world... I can understand these people simply going for a hike that went very wrong. Why must they be spies?

Random thoughts......

-What meg said. If anyone is actually interested in some facts rather than Matt's 5 minute Today show segment, here's a good article. Lays a good deal of blame on the hikers for being a little naive and underprepared.

http://outsideonline.com/outside/destinations/201005/iran-hikers-arrested-iraq-kurdistan-1.html?page=1

-No idea if they are spies or operators or spooks or whatever, but they sure weren't very good ones if they were. Although I am glad that the constitutional concept of innocent until proven guilty is alive and well [/sarcasm]. And yes, I know they are being held under Iranian law so the constitution doesn't apply, I am talking about BT-world

-Some people are into independent travel in recent war torn areas. People went to Croatia and Bosnia. People go to Liberia. People go to Kurdish Iraq. People go lots of places other people might scratch their head at. It's a big world out there, there are more places to go hiking than the AT. Just because it's not your cup of tea doesn't mean they deserve to be held for treason.

-If we detained illegal Venezuelans at our border, we'd deport them. We wouldn't hold and try them for treason. I don't get the comparison

-Seriously... what Yanti said, if there was the remotest possibility that they were spies (or operators, or....), they'd let one go??? Not a chance.

corrected for spelling... some of them at least

Edited by ChrisM 2010-09-15 11:42 AM

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Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

ChrisM - 2010-09-15 12:40 PM

megtrow - 2010-09-15 9:09 AM Why wouldn't they go hiking? They were on vacation. They were visiting Iraq Kurdistan, not Iran, and that area is actually very safe and quite popular with tourists. The fourth member of the group, who skipped the hike due to illness, has said in interviews that they were planning to visit Ahmed Awa, which is a very popular mountainous spot with a famous waterfall. They were recommended this place by taxi drivers, other tourists, hostel employees... and nobody warned them of danger due to proximity with Iran's border (although the Ahmed Awa area is definitely right on the border of the two countries). They mistakenly crossed the border while hiking, and then were picked up as we know of.

From the viewpoint of a traveler, a hiker, a young person who likes to see the world... I can understand these people simply going for a hike that went very wrong. Why must they be spies?

Random thoughts......

-What meg said. If anyone is actually interested in some facts rather than Matt's 5 minute Today show segment, here's a good article. Lays a good deal of blame on the hikers for being a little naive and underprepared.

http://outsideonline.com/outside/destinations/201005/iran-hikers-arrested-iraq-kurdistan-1.html?page=1

-No idea if they are spies or operators or spooks or whatever, but they sure weren't very good ones if they were. Although I am glad that the constitutional concept of innocent until proven guilty is alive and well [/sarcasm]. And yes, I know they are being held under Iranian law so the constitution doesn't apply, I am talking about BT-world

-Some people are into independent travel in recent war torn areas. People went to Croatia and Bosnia. People go to Liberia. People go to Kurdish Iraq. People go lots of places other people might scratch their head at. It's a big world out there, there are more places to go hiking than the AT. Just because it's not your cup of tea doesn't mean they deserve to be held for treason.

-If we detained illegal Venezuelans at our border, we'd deport them. We wouldn't hold and try them for treason. I don't get the comparison

-Seriously... what Yanti said, if there was the remotest possibility that they were spies (or operators, or....), they'd let one go??? Not a chance.

corrected for spelling... some of them at least

I still just can't past the fact that someone would willingly choose to recreation in a known dangerous area. I lived in Israel. There were many places I wouldn't have traveled to even if I could or it were legal. Anyone here think surfing in Gaza right now is a wise idea? You're just begging to get kidnapped!

As for your specific questions...

-If we detained illegal Venezuelans at our border, we'd deport them. We wouldn't hold and try them for treason. I don't get the comparison... They haven't been brought to court and officially charged with anything yet. America has had people held in INS holding centers for longer than 14 months awaiting "something". You can arrest someone for most any reason - how long you hold onto them until trial or release is a totally different story.

-Seriously... what Yanti said, if there was the remotest possibility that they were spies (or operators, or....), they'd let one go??? Not a chance.... This answer's EASY. Ahmadinejad is simply using them as political pawns in the "nuclear game" with the US. Let's say they are spies. Albeit - not very good ones. What does Iran gain more from, improsoning a spy that probably doesn't know anything or letting her go for global polictical capital to garner good will with the rest of the world in your continued political brinksmanship against the United States? She even issued a public thank you to Ahmadinejad by name, for having her released. You don't think that wasn't mandatory? It was a big PR stunt.

Edited by Bigfuzzydoug 2010-09-15 2:39 PM

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Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

jdwright56 - 2010-09-15 11:12 AM

Renee is right. These people are Operators.

Believe me, this is one thing I know about.

The difference is that Operators cary out tasks like placing things in areas that they are wanted or eliminating things from those areas.

Spies observe and report. Don't believe everything you read or see on TV. There is no Jason Bourne.

This is kind of interesting to me. Can you be a little more specific about the kinds of things you’re talking about?

Assuming you and Renee are right, would they be employees of the CIA (or someone else?) or just civilians recruited to perform a task?

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Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

Bigfuzzydoug - 2010-09-15 3:38 PM

ChrisM - 2010-09-15 12:40 PM

megtrow - 2010-09-15 9:09 AM Why wouldn't they go hiking? They were on vacation. They were visiting Iraq Kurdistan, not Iran, and that area is actually very safe and quite popular with tourists. The fourth member of the group, who skipped the hike due to illness, has said in interviews that they were planning to visit Ahmed Awa, which is a very popular mountainous spot with a famous waterfall. They were recommended this place by taxi drivers, other tourists, hostel employees... and nobody warned them of danger due to proximity with Iran's border (although the Ahmed Awa area is definitely right on the border of the two countries). They mistakenly crossed the border while hiking, and then were picked up as we know of.

From the viewpoint of a traveler, a hiker, a young person who likes to see the world... I can understand these people simply going for a hike that went very wrong. Why must they be spies?

Random thoughts......

-What meg said. If anyone is actually interested in some facts rather than Matt's 5 minute Today show segment, here's a good article. Lays a good deal of blame on the hikers for being a little naive and underprepared.

http://outsideonline.com/outside/destinations/201005/iran-hikers-arrested-iraq-kurdistan-1.html?page=1

-No idea if they are spies or operators or spooks or whatever, but they sure weren't very good ones if they were. Although I am glad that the constitutional concept of innocent until proven guilty is alive and well [/sarcasm]. And yes, I know they are being held under Iranian law so the constitution doesn't apply, I am talking about BT-world

-Some people are into independent travel in recent war torn areas. People went to Croatia and Bosnia. People go to Liberia. People go to Kurdish Iraq. People go lots of places other people might scratch their head at. It's a big world out there, there are more places to go hiking than the AT. Just because it's not your cup of tea doesn't mean they deserve to be held for treason.

-If we detained illegal Venezuelans at our border, we'd deport them. We wouldn't hold and try them for treason. I don't get the comparison

-Seriously... what Yanti said, if there was the remotest possibility that they were spies (or operators, or....), they'd let one go??? Not a chance.

corrected for spelling... some of them at least

I still just can't past the fact that someone would willingly choose to recreation in a known dangerous area. I lived in Israel. There were many places I wouldn't have traveled to even if I could or it were legal. Anyone here think surfing in Gaza right now is a wise idea? You're just begging to get kidnapped!

Because people don't do monumentally stupid things on a regular basis.

People do dangerous things all the time.

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Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

So many other great places on this planet to hike and yet they chose that location.   I doubt they were spies as Iran would have already dealt with it and not even flirted with their release.    They simply lack common sense IMHO.   Gow many people are holding "I told you so" cards in their pocket from when these people first mentioned the idea and location.

They had every right to hike in Iraq, but was it smart? Not IMHO.   Also dont you know you are "close" to Iran border let alone venture over it?   To me its like repeately pulling the tail of a dog and wondering why it turned around and but you.
I have definately never heard the "why" factor brought up in the media and agree that we do have an entitlement attitude that leads to situations like this.

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Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

jmk-brooklyn - 2010-09-15 2:46 PM

jdwright56 - 2010-09-15 11:12 AM

Renee is right. These people are Operators.

Believe me, this is one thing I know about.

The difference is that Operators cary out tasks like placing things in areas that they are wanted or eliminating things from those areas.

Spies observe and report. Don't believe everything you read or see on TV. There is no Jason Bourne.

This is kind of interesting to me. Can you be a little more specific about the kinds of things you’re talking about? Assuming you and Renee are right, would they be employees of the CIA (or someone else?) or just civilians recruited to perform a task?

At this point I am going to talk in general terms, because, obviously, I am not privy.

Operations personael come from all likes. Some are CIA (bu that is very rare), most are current or former military, some are outside contractors, and some of the operations people are derived from a place that I don't really know much about.

I have known of operations tasks such as get in, remove subject, get out. There are often, get in, leave something (to aid in observation), and get out. There are even some that are get in, be a PITA for a month or so to distract from the real thing that we are trying to accomplish, and then get out.

The trick to operations is not looking as though you are involved in an operation. I will go back to what Renee was talking about as to what leads me to believe that these folks are most likely an Ops crew.

Every video and picture I have seen shows very little emotion from these folks. If stupid Joe or Joan Hippie gets taken in by the Iranian secret police the reaction I would expect is shear terror. I mean, who here doesn't think of these folks and imagine unending torture or death. Terror is the only logical reaction from someone that is untrained.

An argument that they are just stupid goes out the window with me at this point, as well as any assertion that they are people that think that everyone is good, just misunderstood. The thoughts that these guys are good probably blew up after the first 30 minutes of questioning.

So - why did 1 guy stay back? I believe part of his statement. I believe he had a stomach flu or whatever. It is tough to move quietly an virtually undetected having to cop a squat every 20 minutes (beside the fact that your are leaving a virtual breadcrumb trail).  A miniature dachsund could follow that trail.

I beleieve that the stories match because they were rehearsed. I believe that the Iranians are a bunch with a large ego and their message to the U.S. and the their citizens (although they will be communicated differenly) is that "Our Government is completely under control and the United Staes cannot get by on us". By returning one hiker that they are quite sure did not accomplish the task at hand, they have exposed the task and they have gained UN favor by releasing the "Hiker".

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Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

jdwright56 - 2010-09-15 1:49 PM

jmk-brooklyn - 2010-09-15 2:46 PM

jdwright56 - 2010-09-15 11:12 AM

Renee is right. These people are Operators.

Believe me, this is one thing I know about.

The difference is that Operators cary out tasks like placing things in areas that they are wanted or eliminating things from those areas.

Spies observe and report. Don't believe everything you read or see on TV. There is no Jason Bourne.

This is kind of interesting to me. Can you be a little more specific about the kinds of things you’re talking about? Assuming you and Renee are right, would they be employees of the CIA (or someone else?) or just civilians recruited to perform a task?

At this point I am going to talk in general terms, because, obviously, I am not privy.

Operations personael come from all likes. Some are CIA (bu that is very rare), most are current or former military, some are outside contractors, and some of the operations people are derived from a place that I don't really know much about.

I have known of operations tasks such as get in, remove subject, get out. There are often, get in, leave something (to aid in observation), and get out. There are even some that are get in, be a PITA for a month or so to distract from the real thing that we are trying to accomplish, and then get out.

The trick to operations is not looking as though you are involved in an operation. I will go back to what Renee was talking about as to what leads me to believe that these folks are most likely an Ops crew.

Every video and picture I have seen shows very little emotion from these folks. If stupid Joe or Joan Hippie gets taken in by the Iranian secret police the reaction I would expect is shear terror. I mean, who here doesn't think of these folks and imagine unending torture or death. Terror is the only logical reaction from someone that is untrained.

An argument that they are just stupid goes out the window with me at this point, as well as any assertion that they are people that think that everyone is good, just misunderstood. The thoughts that these guys are good probably blew up after the first 30 minutes of questioning.

So - why did 1 guy stay back? I believe part of his statement. I believe he had a stomach flu or whatever. It is tough to move quietly an virtually undetected having to cop a squat every 20 minutes (beside the fact that your are leaving a virtual breadcrumb trail).  A miniature dachsund could follow that trail.

I beleieve that the stories match because they were rehearsed. I believe that the Iranians are a bunch with a large ego and their message to the U.S. and the their citizens (although they will be communicated differenly) is that "Our Government is completely under control and the United Staes cannot get by on us". By returning one hiker that they are quite sure did not accomplish the task at hand, they have exposed the task and they have gained UN favor by releasing the "Hiker".

This seems to be leaning heavily towards the conspiracy theory edge, if you ask me.

As for the bolded section... what kind of emotion do you expect them to be showing after more than 400 days in an Iranian prison??! I'd say they are probably pretty well accustomed to their harsh surroundings and emotionally drained by this point.

You can say that hiking where they were hiking was a ridiculously stupid thing to do, that's fine if you believe that. Does that make them criminals? No, it makes them naive and unprepared. Tourists go hiking in this area of Iraq all the time and come out just fine. These guys simply made a horrible mistake, and that so many people are happy to judge the situation based on nothing but their own impression of the scant media coverage... well, it's kind of disappointing.

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Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

jdwright56 - 2010-09-15 4:49 PM

...

At this point I am going to talk in general terms, because, obviously, I am not privy.

Operations personael come from all likes. Some are CIA (bu that is very rare), most are current or former military, some are outside contractors, and some of the operations people are derived from a place that I don't really know much about.

I have known of operations tasks such as get in, remove subject, get out. There are often, get in, leave something (to aid in observation), and get out. There are even some that are get in, be a PITA for a month or so to distract from the real thing that we are trying to accomplish, and then get out.

The trick to operations is not looking as though you are involved in an operation. I will go back to what Renee was talking about as to what leads me to believe that these folks are most likely an Ops crew.

Every video and picture I have seen shows very little emotion from these folks. If stupid Joe or Joan Hippie gets taken in by the Iranian secret police the reaction I would expect is shear terror. I mean, who here doesn't think of these folks and imagine unending torture or death. Terror is the only logical reaction from someone that is untrained.

An argument that they are just stupid goes out the window with me at this point, as well as any assertion that they are people that think that everyone is good, just misunderstood. The thoughts that these guys are good probably blew up after the first 30 minutes of questioning.

So - why did 1 guy stay back? I believe part of his statement. I believe he had a stomach flu or whatever. It is tough to move quietly an virtually undetected having to cop a squat every 20 minutes (beside the fact that your are leaving a virtual breadcrumb trail).  A miniature dachsund could follow that trail.

I beleieve that the stories match because they were rehearsed. I believe that the Iranians are a bunch with a large ego and their message to the U.S. and the their citizens (although they will be communicated differenly) is that "Our Government is completely under control and the United Staes cannot get by on us". By returning one hiker that they are quite sure did not accomplish the task at hand, they have exposed the task and they have gained UN favor by releasing the "Hiker".

The problem with the bolded statements is that emotions don't necessarily follow logical paths. And in the face of overwhelming emotions, depersonalization, dissociation, and emotional numbing are quite common. It is, in fact, a common feature of PTSD, or other acute stress reactions.

So the lack of evident emotion speaks to me more of having been "broken down" than anything else. Think of how people described Elizabeth Smart when she was seen in public with her captor. The "logical" reaction of someone who has been taken hostage is to flee when the opportunity arises. Not to sit passively while they go about their business. And yet, that's what she did. Overwhelmed by the situation, essentially brainwashed about the odds against them, a person will often shut down. It's a pretty effective and common emotional and psychological defense.

I still vote stupidity over evil. Given the odds, stupidity explains things in most situations better than evil. And it plays both ways - the hikers were stupid to hike in a dangerous part of the world (politically) without being more alert. And the Iranians were stupid to think that holding them hostage for over a year would win them any kind of points (did they learn nothing from the original Iranian hostage situation in 1979?).

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Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

jdwright56 - 2010-09-15 4:49 PM

jmk-brooklyn - 2010-09-15 2:46 PM

jdwright56 - 2010-09-15 11:12 AM

Renee is right. These people are Operators.

Believe me, this is one thing I know about.

The difference is that Operators cary out tasks like placing things in areas that they are wanted or eliminating things from those areas.

Spies observe and report. Don't believe everything you read or see on TV. There is no Jason Bourne.

This is kind of interesting to me. Can you be a little more specific about the kinds of things you’re talking about? Assuming you and Renee are right, would they be employees of the CIA (or someone else?) or just civilians recruited to perform a task?

At this point I am going to talk in general terms, because, obviously, I am not privy.

Operations personael come from all likes. Some are CIA (bu that is very rare), most are current or former military, some are outside contractors, and some of the operations people are derived from a place that I don't really know much about.

I have known of operations tasks such as get in, remove subject, get out. There are often, get in, leave something (to aid in observation), and get out. There are even some that are get in, be a PITA for a month or so to distract from the real thing that we are trying to accomplish, and then get out.

The trick to operations is not looking as though you are involved in an operation. I will go back to what Renee was talking about as to what leads me to believe that these folks are most likely an Ops crew.

Every video and picture I have seen shows very little emotion from these folks. If stupid Joe or Joan Hippie gets taken in by the Iranian secret police the reaction I would expect is shear terror. I mean, who here doesn't think of these folks and imagine unending torture or death. Terror is the only logical reaction from someone that is untrained.

An argument that they are just stupid goes out the window with me at this point, as well as any assertion that they are people that think that everyone is good, just misunderstood. The thoughts that these guys are good probably blew up after the first 30 minutes of questioning.

So - why did 1 guy stay back? I believe part of his statement. I believe he had a stomach flu or whatever. It is tough to move quietly an virtually undetected having to cop a squat every 20 minutes (beside the fact that your are leaving a virtual breadcrumb trail).  A miniature dachsund could follow that trail.

I beleieve that the stories match because they were rehearsed. I believe that the Iranians are a bunch with a large ego and their message to the U.S. and the their citizens (although they will be communicated differenly) is that "Our Government is completely under control and the United Staes cannot get by on us". By returning one hiker that they are quite sure did not accomplish the task at hand, they have exposed the task and they have gained UN favor by releasing the "Hiker".

Yep.

I asked my friend who was shot whether he shot the guy who shot him. His answer - I wasn't carrying a gun because I was a "civilian" tourist - why would I be carrying a gun?

Anyone who thinks we don't have operators crawling all over the borders, looking for Iranian operators crawling over the borders, does not have an appreciation for how our military works.

Edited by Renee 2010-09-15 4:21 PM

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

hmmm? your last statement doesn't follow logically just because we may believe these three aren't operatives.

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Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

I find the "why would they go there of all places" a typically American response

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Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

jdwright56 - 2010-09-15 4:49 PM

The trick to operations is not looking as though you are involved in an operation. I will go back to what Renee was talking about as to what leads me to believe that these folks are most likely an Ops crew.

Every video and picture I have seen shows very little emotion from these folks. If stupid Joe or Joan Hippie gets taken in by the Iranian secret police the reaction I would expect is shear terror. I mean, who here doesn't think of these folks and imagine unending torture or death. Terror is the only logical reaction from someone that is untrained.

I meant to add ... I lived in Pinehurst, NC for a year and a half. My stomping ground was Southern Pines - that's half a mile down the road from Pinehurst. Southern Pines abutts the Fort Bragg reserve - that's where the Army survival trains their soldiers, including the Special Ops guys (Delta Force, among others). You know - the guys from the movie Blackhawk Down? Not the Army Rangers but the other ones. I met the son of one of the SO guys whose body was torn apart by the angry mob. I dated one of the guys who became a composite character in the movie (yes, his name is in the book).

Regular enlisted guys live in (godforsaken) Fayetteville and many of the SO guys choose to live in Southern Pines and Pinehurst. While I met plenty of guys who wanted to let me know they were Special Ops, it was easy to figure out who was and who was not Special Ops. The ones who never talked about Special Ops, were very lean, and had the same blank looks on their faces - they were most likely to be SO. They would often say they were mechanics or supply jocks. The ones who talked about it and were overt with their emotions - not a chance.

Anyway, when I saw the photos of these folks and saw the girl talking, it reminded me of some of the guys I saw/met in Southern Pines. I'm not saying my exposure to these soldiers makes my perception infallible. I am just noting the similarity in the facial expressions and body language; I've seen it before.

I also think the way the woman talks about her fiance sounds very unconvincing. My thought was that naming as her fiance was likely a coded message.

I just might have to IM with my former romantic interest tonight, to get his take on this topic.

BTW, I'm not sure what the evil comments are about (seems like there is a false choice between dumb or evil?). I don't think these people are evil; I think they were just doing their job. They're soldiers. I'm glad one of them is coming home. I'm sure she was given a message by the Iranians to share with the American powers-that-be.

Edited by Renee 2010-09-15 6:41 PM

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Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

megtrow - 2010-09-15 4:10 PM

jdwright56 - 2010-09-15 1:49 PM

jmk-brooklyn - 2010-09-15 2:46 PM

jdwright56 - 2010-09-15 11:12 AM

Renee is right. These people are Operators.

Believe me, this is one thing I know about.

The difference is that Operators cary out tasks like placing things in areas that they are wanted or eliminating things from those areas.

Spies observe and report. Don't believe everything you read or see on TV. There is no Jason Bourne.

This is kind of interesting to me. Can you be a little more specific about the kinds of things you’re talking about? Assuming you and Renee are right, would they be employees of the CIA (or someone else?) or just civilians recruited to perform a task?

At this point I am going to talk in general terms, because, obviously, I am not privy.

Operations personael come from all likes. Some are CIA (bu that is very rare), most are current or former military, some are outside contractors, and some of the operations people are derived from a place that I don't really know much about.

I have known of operations tasks such as get in, remove subject, get out. There are often, get in, leave something (to aid in observation), and get out. There are even some that are get in, be a PITA for a month or so to distract from the real thing that we are trying to accomplish, and then get out.

The trick to operations is not looking as though you are involved in an operation. I will go back to what Renee was talking about as to what leads me to believe that these folks are most likely an Ops crew.

Every video and picture I have seen shows very little emotion from these folks. If stupid Joe or Joan Hippie gets taken in by the Iranian secret police the reaction I would expect is shear terror. I mean, who here doesn't think of these folks and imagine unending torture or death. Terror is the only logical reaction from someone that is untrained.

An argument that they are just stupid goes out the window with me at this point, as well as any assertion that they are people that think that everyone is good, just misunderstood. The thoughts that these guys are good probably blew up after the first 30 minutes of questioning.

So - why did 1 guy stay back? I believe part of his statement. I believe he had a stomach flu or whatever. It is tough to move quietly an virtually undetected having to cop a squat every 20 minutes (beside the fact that your are leaving a virtual breadcrumb trail).  A miniature dachsund could follow that trail.

I beleieve that the stories match because they were rehearsed. I believe that the Iranians are a bunch with a large ego and their message to the U.S. and the their citizens (although they will be communicated differenly) is that "Our Government is completely under control and the United Staes cannot get by on us". By returning one hiker that they are quite sure did not accomplish the task at hand, they have exposed the task and they have gained UN favor by releasing the "Hiker".

This seems to be leaning heavily towards the conspiracy theory edge, if you ask me.

As for the bolded section... what kind of emotion do you expect them to be showing after more than 400 days in an Iranian prison??! I'd say they are probably pretty well accustomed to their harsh surroundings and emotionally drained by this point.

You can say that hiking where they were hiking was a ridiculously stupid thing to do, that's fine if you believe that. Does that make them criminals? No, it makes them naive and unprepared. Tourists go hiking in this area of Iraq all the time and come out just fine. These guys simply made a horrible mistake, and that so many people are happy to judge the situation based on nothing but their own impression of the scant media coverage... well, it's kind of disappointing.

Hey, believe what you want. What does it matter to me.

Most people don't understand how all of this works, so I am not surprised.

One member of this discussion asked me for my opinion and I gave it. That is all.

Please do not disrespect me by trashing said opinion when you know nothing of the world that I know, OK?

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Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

gearboy - 2010-09-15 4:14 PM

jdwright56 - 2010-09-15 4:49 PM

...

At this point I am going to talk in general terms, because, obviously, I am not privy.

Operations personael come from all likes. Some are CIA (bu that is very rare), most are current or former military, some are outside contractors, and some of the operations people are derived from a place that I don't really know much about.

I have known of operations tasks such as get in, remove subject, get out. There are often, get in, leave something (to aid in observation), and get out. There are even some that are get in, be a PITA for a month or so to distract from the real thing that we are trying to accomplish, and then get out.

The trick to operations is not looking as though you are involved in an operation. I will go back to what Renee was talking about as to what leads me to believe that these folks are most likely an Ops crew.

Every video and picture I have seen shows very little emotion from these folks. If stupid Joe or Joan Hippie gets taken in by the Iranian secret police the reaction I would expect is shear terror. I mean, who here doesn't think of these folks and imagine unending torture or death. Terror is the only logical reaction from someone that is untrained.

An argument that they are just stupid goes out the window with me at this point, as well as any assertion that they are people that think that everyone is good, just misunderstood. The thoughts that these guys are good probably blew up after the first 30 minutes of questioning.

So - why did 1 guy stay back? I believe part of his statement. I believe he had a stomach flu or whatever. It is tough to move quietly an virtually undetected having to cop a squat every 20 minutes (beside the fact that your are leaving a virtual breadcrumb trail).  A miniature dachsund could follow that trail.

I beleieve that the stories match because they were rehearsed. I believe that the Iranians are a bunch with a large ego and their message to the U.S. and the their citizens (although they will be communicated differenly) is that "Our Government is completely under control and the United Staes cannot get by on us". By returning one hiker that they are quite sure did not accomplish the task at hand, they have exposed the task and they have gained UN favor by releasing the "Hiker".

The problem with the bolded statements is that emotions don't necessarily follow logical paths. And in the face of overwhelming emotions, depersonalization, dissociation, and emotional numbing are quite common. It is, in fact, a common feature of PTSD, or other acute stress reactions.

So the lack of evident emotion speaks to me more of having been "broken down" than anything else. Think of how people described Elizabeth Smart when she was seen in public with her captor. The "logical" reaction of someone who has been taken hostage is to flee when the opportunity arises. Not to sit passively while they go about their business. And yet, that's what she did. Overwhelmed by the situation, essentially brainwashed about the odds against them, a person will often shut down. It's a pretty effective and common emotional and psychological defense.

I still vote stupidity over evil. Given the odds, stupidity explains things in most situations better than evil. And it plays both ways - the hikers were stupid to hike in a dangerous part of the world (politically) without being more alert. And the Iranians were stupid to think that holding them hostage for over a year would win them any kind of points (did they learn nothing from the original Iranian hostage situation in 1979?).

Who said evil? I said there were operators. In no way do I believe that all operators are evil. I know nothing of any of the hundreds of possible missions that an operator could be involved in at all. It might be all kinds of good.

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68

Norristown, PA

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

Yea & Francis Gary Powers was just out for a scenic Sunday flight in his jet powered glider!!

Someone can feel free to change this to the sarcasm font since I have no idea how to do it.

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Buttercup

14334

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

jmk-brooklyn - 2010-09-15 3:46 PM

jdwright56 - 2010-09-15 11:12 AM

Renee is right. These people are Operators.

Believe me, this is one thing I know about.

The difference is that Operators cary out tasks like placing things in areas that they are wanted or eliminating things from those areas.

Spies observe and report. Don't believe everything you read or see on TV. There is no Jason Bourne.

This is kind of interesting to me. Can you be a little more specific about the kinds of things you’re talking about? Assuming you and Renee are right, would they be employees of the CIA (or someone else?) or just civilians recruited to perform a task?

No, not civilians! Special Ops. I'm going to guess Army (Air Force has SO, too).

Sort of a side note: You know that waterboarding thing the US did? That's a small part of SO training, to prepare the operators in the event they are captured and tortured. They are trained how to 1) not panic and 2) act panicked when they are tortured.

Other training exercises: Night invade a home and 'capture' a Special Ops soldier while he is sleeping in his bed. One of these home invasions went badly and the soldier died. No prosecution as they all sign waivers to the effect that they understand their training may result in their death, and the civilian law enforcement supports the training.

Just occurred to me - we have someone on BT who probably knows exactly who these 3 people are. But he would a) never admit it and b) never divulge! Hah.

Edited by Renee 2010-09-15 7:13 PM

Buttercup

14334

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

ChrisM - 2010-09-15 12:40 PM

-Seriously... what Yanti said, if there was the remotest possibility that they were spies (or operators, or....), they'd let one go??? Not a chance.

Of course they would! That is if they thought they had something to gain by doing so. Why waste leveraging an asset?

I'm not intrigued by the thought of them being hikers; I never bought that story. As things unfolded, I became certain they were not hikers.

I'm intrigued by the thought of what message Ahmadinejad wants this young woman to convey to our government. We have no diplomatic channels with Iran; Iran just opened one up.

I wondered "Why now? What is going on now that would prompt the Iranians to use one of these captives for messaging purpose? Why the goodwill (PR) gesture?"

Have you heard of the recent Jonah Goldberg article in The Atlantic regarding Israel's attitude towards dealing directly in a hostile manner with Iran? Israel was sending a message to Iran. If Israel can convince Iran that they are in jeopardy from Israel, this would serve as a good enough motive for Iran to reach out to the US, in an attempt to convince the US to get Israel under control. The perception of a fed-up, trigger-happy Israel actually works to our benefit when it comes to dealing with the Iranian powers-that-be.

(Oddly enough, Fidel Castro recently conducted an interview with Jonah Goldberg in which he asked the journalist to convey a message to Iran! Weirdness.)

Or, perhaps, there is an entirely different message that Iran wishes to convey. I don't know what the message is, but I am certain that this operator is being used to deliver it.

Edited by Renee 2010-09-15 7:46 PM

Champion

7821

Brooklyn, NY

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

I've never heard of any women in SO, although I guess it makes sense that there would be some.

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Pro

6767

the Alabama part of Pennsylvania

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

jdwright56 - 2010-09-15 7:35 PM

Who said evil? I said there were operators. In no way do I believe that all operators are evil. I know nothing of any of the hundreds of possible missions that an operator could be involved in at all. It might be all kinds of good.

Napoleon famously said "never ascribe to malice that which can be adequately explained by incompetence". In other words, people are more likely to be stupid than evil. A group of young Americans of mixed genders (as far as I know, there are no special ops women in any service branch - GI Jane was fiction) wanders around the (relatively) safe part of Iraq, near the Iranian border and get captured. Which is more likely? Dumb kids or master plan gone awry?

Following this axiom has saved me a lot of grief in life. Evil/malice may be an overly strong term here, but that guy that cuts you on the highway? More likely an idiot than someone who is planning malevalently towards you. That co-worker who can't seem to do the simplest task and increases your workload? Probably stupid, not out to get you. And those young hikers who got caught?

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Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

jmk-brooklyn - 2010-09-15 9:56 PM I've never heard of any women in SO, although I guess it makes sense that there would be some.

Nor have I. It would not be unusual, however, to pair Operators with someone from another agency, e.g. CIA.

I don't know who these people are but when I heard about their arrest, my immediate thought was "Operators." When I saw their photos, I thought "Operators." When I saw the young woman speak, I thought "Operator." At no point did I think they might actually be hikers - hippy, stupid, intrepid, evil, savvy or otherwise.

One of the SO guys I met was fluent in Chinese (don't remember which dialect) - this particular language skill is why the Army was interested in this former middle school biology teacher. I asked why the SF needed someone fluent in Chinese - are we going to war with China? I was told the Army feels it is beneficial to have someone with deep knowledge of the Mongolian part of China; that is where he was going to be sent once his training was done. Not for a military action, but for intelligence gathering and other stuff. I imagine if he's ever picked up in Mongolia, he will say he was hiking or horseback riding through the steppes.

Being sent into country is not necessarily a pernicious or malicious operation. Sometimes, it is benign intelligence gathering. Maybe make contacts. Determine loyalties, kinship and tribal ties. The 'host' country, however, might not see it as benign.

Edited by Renee 2010-09-15 9:41 PM

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

gearboy - 2010-09-15 7:22 PM

jdwright56 - 2010-09-15 7:35 PM

Who said evil? I said there were operators. In no way do I believe that all operators are evil. I know nothing of any of the hundreds of possible missions that an operator could be involved in at all. It might be all kinds of good.

Napoleon famously said "never ascribe to malice that which can be adequately explained by incompetence". In other words, people are more likely to be stupid than evil. A group of young Americans of mixed genders (as far as I know, there are no special ops women in any service branch - GI Jane was fiction) wanders around the (relatively) safe part of Iraq, near the Iranian border and get captured. Which is more likely? Dumb kids or master plan gone awry?

Following this axiom has saved me a lot of grief in life. Evil/malice may be an overly strong term here, but that guy that cuts you on the highway? More likely an idiot than someone who is planning malevalently towards you. That co-worker who can't seem to do the simplest task and increases your workload? Probably stupid, not out to get you. And those young hikers who got caught?

We must just be naive young waifs. Let's keep our innocence

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Veteran

1097

Elizabethtown, KY

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

Renee - 2010-09-15 10:31 PM

jmk-brooklyn - 2010-09-15 9:56 PM I've never heard of any women in SO, although I guess it makes sense that there would be some.

Nor have I. It would not be unusual, however, to pair Operators with someone from another agency, e.g. CIA.

I don't know who these people are but when I heard about their arrest, my immediate thought was "Operators." When I saw their photos, I thought "Operators." When I saw the young woman speak, I thought "Operator." At no point did I think they might actually be hikers - hippy, stupid, intrepid, evil, savvy or otherwise.

One of the SO guys I met was fluent in Chinese (don't remember which dialect) - this particular language skill is why the Army was interested in this former middle school biology teacher. I asked why the SF needed someone fluent in Chinese - are we going to war with China? I was told the Army feels it is beneficial to have someone with deep knowledge of the Mongolian part of China; that is where he was going to be sent once his training was done. Not for a military action, but for intelligence gathering and other stuff. I imagine if he's ever picked up in Mongolia, he will say he was hiking or horseback riding through the steppes.

Being sent into country is not necessarily a pernicious or malicious operation. Sometimes, it is benign intelligence gathering. Maybe make contacts. Determine loyalties, kinship and tribal ties. The 'host' country, however, might not see it as benign.

How does one do that if one doesn't speak Farsi or Kurdish? (Or maybe they do!)

Duh duh duhhhhhhh

I love how people with limited information can come to definite conclusions . . . . I'm more of a probability kind of guy. Right now, 70% that they're yuppy hikers (as indicated by their cover stories background)

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Master

2277

Lake Norman, NC

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

At least there's one interesting consensus in this thread...

No one says that they are innocent (of either being operatives/spies, ignorant or foolish) and the Iranians have done some sort of evil, horrible thing by snatching up three poor Americans and putting them in jail for no reason at all.

Everyone's debating on whether they were stupid, operatives or spies. No one here on COJ says they're outright "innocent" and that Iran had no right to catch them and hold them. Interesting how the US media... again BOTH conservative and liberal media, has repeatedly depicted them as nothing but "innocent".

I just find this part fascinating. If there is a conspiracy theory, I wonder if the conspiracy is in the US government pressuring the media not to portray it any other way as to possibly show Iran in any good light considering the continued saga of nuclear proliferation. Could the issue of Iran getting the bomb be so big that the US government is attempting to control media with regards to Iran? Not saying it's MY conspiracy theory... but could it be A conspiracy theory?

Champion

18680

Lost in the Luminiferous Aether

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

gearboy - 2010-09-15 10:22 PM

jdwright56 - 2010-09-15 7:35 PM

Who said evil? I said there were operators. In no way do I believe that all operators are evil. I know nothing of any of the hundreds of possible missions that an operator could be involved in at all. It might be all kinds of good.

Napoleon famously said "never ascribe to malice that which can be adequately explained by incompetence". In other words, people are more likely to be stupid than evil. A group of young Americans of mixed genders (as far as I know, there are no special ops women in any service branch - GI Jane was fiction) wanders around the (relatively) safe part of Iraq, near the Iranian border and get captured. Which is more likely? Dumb kids or master plan gone awry?

Following this axiom has saved me a lot of grief in life. Evil/malice may be an overly strong term here, but that guy that cuts you on the highway? More likely an idiot than someone who is planning malevalently towards you. That co-worker who can't seem to do the simplest task and increases your workload? Probably stupid, not out to get you. And those young hikers who got caught?

I have found myself agreeing with you on more than one occasion of late, I think I may be getting sick.

BFD Innocent of what, the charges laid against them? If they are nothing more than stupid hikers isn't Iran's response way off the charts of legitimate? Even North Korea sent home the journalist, who was deliberately in their country against their wishes, in a shorter period of time.

Pro

6767

the Alabama part of Pennsylvania

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

trinnas - 2010-09-16 9:07 AM
...

I have found myself agreeing with you on more than one occasion of late, I think I may be getting sick.

BFD Innocent of what, the charges laid against them? If they are nothing more than stupid hikers isn't Iran's response way off the charts of legitimate? Even North Korea sent home the journalist, who was deliberately in their country against their wishes, in a shorter period of time.

I thought maybe something was wrong with me, finding myself on the same side as you! (Is there some third, rational side we are both ending up on? ....nah!)

And x2 on the issue of what "innocent" means. Innocent can also mean "naive"; which is a nice way of saying "here's your sign!" (as Bill Engvall used to say). As well as the stupidity of Iran's response. Or as my cop friend sometimes like to say - "everyone is guilty of SOMETHING".

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I'm curious about "hiking in Iran" (Page 2)

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