I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

Buttercup

14334

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

roch1009 - 2010-09-16 8:07 AM

Renee - 2010-09-15 10:31 PM

jmk-brooklyn - 2010-09-15 9:56 PM I've never heard of any women in SO, although I guess it makes sense that there would be some.

Nor have I. It would not be unusual, however, to pair Operators with someone from another agency, e.g. CIA.

I don't know who these people are but when I heard about their arrest, my immediate thought was "Operators." When I saw their photos, I thought "Operators." When I saw the young woman speak, I thought "Operator." At no point did I think they might actually be hikers - hippy, stupid, intrepid, evil, savvy or otherwise.

One of the SO guys I met was fluent in Chinese (don't remember which dialect) - this particular language skill is why the Army was interested in this former middle school biology teacher. I asked why the SF needed someone fluent in Chinese - are we going to war with China? I was told the Army feels it is beneficial to have someone with deep knowledge of the Mongolian part of China; that is where he was going to be sent once his training was done. Not for a military action, but for intelligence gathering and other stuff. I imagine if he's ever picked up in Mongolia, he will say he was hiking or horseback riding through the steppes.

Being sent into country is not necessarily a pernicious or malicious operation. Sometimes, it is benign intelligence gathering. Maybe make contacts. Determine loyalties, kinship and tribal ties. The 'host' country, however, might not see it as benign.

How does one do that if one doesn't speak Farsi or Kurdish? (Or maybe they do!)

Duh duh duhhhhhhh

I love how people with limited information can come to definite conclusions . . . . I'm more of a probability kind of guy. Right now, 70% that they're yuppy hikers (as indicated by their cover stories background)

Let me help you with better comprehending my post since you seem to be misinterpreting the meaning of words.

"I don't know who these people are" is not, in most thinking circles, considered a definite conclusion.

Do I sound definite in my belief? Probably! Do I claim certainty of knowledge? Nope. I have, however, explained why I believe they are Operators.

Getting ad hominen-ish doesn't sway my type of personality temperament; we aren't much influenced by the low opinions of others. We're more interested in deconstructing the validity of an argument than we are in deconstructing the person holding an opposing opinion.

There doesn't appear to be a discussion of why anyone thinks they are merely hikers. All I've read is a discussion of what kind of hikers they are - naive, hippies, stupid, intrepid adventurors, etc.

Regarding your question re language skills: It was reported that 2 of the 3 speak Arabic.

I'm sure if my friend is arrested in upper mongolia, he will be portrayed as an adventurous horseback rider. I hope so!

Everyone arrives at conclusions in their own way. I won't disparage or judge anyone's way. It's not a value proposition; it's just a temperament preference (see Keirsey personality typing).

Veteran

1097

Elizabethtown, KY

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

Renee - 2010-09-16 10:46 AM

roch1009 - 2010-09-16 8:07 AM

Renee - 2010-09-15 10:31 PM

jmk-brooklyn - 2010-09-15 9:56 PM I've never heard of any women in SO, although I guess it makes sense that there would be some.

Nor have I. It would not be unusual, however, to pair Operators with someone from another agency, e.g. CIA.

I don't know who these people are but when I heard about their arrest, my immediate thought was "Operators." When I saw their photos, I thought "Operators." When I saw the young woman speak, I thought "Operator." At no point did I think they might actually be hikers - hippy, stupid, intrepid, evil, savvy or otherwise.

One of the SO guys I met was fluent in Chinese (don't remember which dialect) - this particular language skill is why the Army was interested in this former middle school biology teacher. I asked why the SF needed someone fluent in Chinese - are we going to war with China? I was told the Army feels it is beneficial to have someone with deep knowledge of the Mongolian part of China; that is where he was going to be sent once his training was done. Not for a military action, but for intelligence gathering and other stuff. I imagine if he's ever picked up in Mongolia, he will say he was hiking or horseback riding through the steppes.

Being sent into country is not necessarily a pernicious or malicious operation. Sometimes, it is benign intelligence gathering. Maybe make contacts. Determine loyalties, kinship and tribal ties. The 'host' country, however, might not see it as benign.

How does one do that if one doesn't speak Farsi or Kurdish? (Or maybe they do!)

Duh duh duhhhhhhh

I love how people with limited information can come to definite conclusions . . . . I'm more of a probability kind of guy. Right now, 70% that they're yuppy hikers (as indicated by their cover stories background)

Let me help you with better comprehending my post since you seem to be misinterpreting the meaning of words.

"I don't know who these people are" is not, in most thinking circles, considered a definite conclusion.

Do I sound definite in my belief? Probably! Do I claim certainty of knowledge? Nope. I have, however, explained why I believe they are Operators.

Getting ad hominen-ish doesn't sway my type of personality temperament; we aren't much influenced by the low opinions of others. We're more interested in deconstructing the validity of an argument than we are in deconstructing the person holding an opposing opinion.

There doesn't appear to be a discussion of why anyone thinks they are merely hikers. All I've read is a discussion of what kind of hikers they are - naive, hippies, stupid, intrepid adventurors, etc.

Regarding your question re language skills: It was reported that 2 of the 3 speak Arabic.

I'm sure if my friend is arrested in upper mongolia, he will be portrayed as an adventurous horseback rider. I hope so!

Everyone arrives at conclusions in their own way. I won't disparage or judge anyone's way. It's not a value proposition; it's just a temperament preference (see Keirsey personality typing).

That won't get you far in Iran . . .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_Iran

Now, if it's determined that they (or at least one) speak Farsi, you'll see my "yuppy hiker" probability slip below 50%. Nobody learns Farsi for the heck of it.

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Veteran

1097

Elizabethtown, KY

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

And Renee, my apologies . . . I was speaking more towards the comments below:

"Renee is right. These people are Operators. Believe me, this is one thing I know about."

You obviously didn't say that.

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Melon Presser

52116

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

I'm sticking with parsimony on this one. Stupid hikers, Iran realizes they're stupid hikers AND they'll come out looking much better by letting them go ...

versus an awful lot of conjecturing.

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Master

2277

Lake Norman, NC

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

trinnas - 2010-09-16 9:07 AM

BFD Innocent of what, the charges laid against them? If they are nothing more than stupid hikers isn't Iran's response way off the charts of legitimate? Even North Korea sent home the journalist, who was deliberately in their country against their wishes, in a shorter period of time.

The difference is that N. Korea supposedly already has the bomb and there's not much left to "negotiate" over. They have nothing to gain by holding the journalist. Of course they're being held longer in Iran - as political bargaining chips. It's like the Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, who has been held captive by Hamas in Gaza for over 4 years. Why would Hamas continue to hold him? Why not just kill him rather than continue to house and feed him? Because they consider him a political bargaining chip and want his release in exchange for several hundred inprisoned Palestinians.

This is basically state-sanctioned kidnapping for political ransom. I'm not agreeing with the Iranians, but I certainly wouldn't ever put myself into a location where I could become that political bargaining chip.

Edited by Bigfuzzydoug 2010-09-16 10:49 AM

Buttercup

14334

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

roch1009 - 2010-09-16 11:09 AM

Regarding your question re language skills: It was reported that 2 of the 3 speak Arabic.

That won't get you far in Iran . . .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_Iran

Now, if it's determined that they (or at least one) speak Farsi, you'll see my "yuppy hiker" probability slip below 50%. Nobody learns Farsi for the heck of it.

Thanks for clearing that up. You quoted my text, so I assumed your comment was directed at me. Again, thank you.

You are assuming they would need to speak Farsi, implying that their intention was to slip into Iran. Reports claim they were detained withinin Iraq's border. If they don't speak Farsi, I'm going to assume they didn't intend to head into a Farsi speaking area.

Perhaps their mission was to meet with Arabic speaking locals who live on the border? Perhaps they were there to keep tabs on Americans who are hiking the area - and possibly slipping into Iran. Perhaps they speak Farsi. Perhaps they were there to assess loyalties of Iraqi locals.

In other words, there are many plausible reasons why an Operator would be in that area, reasons other than they were headed into Iran where they would need Farsi skills.

I think it was Gearboy who invoked Occham's Razon (forgive me if I got that wrong). Seems highly likely, even predictable, that that area would be crawling with SF. Not to slip into Iran (the ones who should be in Iran are most likely in Iran), but to observe and assess. Perhaps to make contact with the locals who can serve as their proxies to observe and assess.

A simple explanation: people whose job it is to be in that area were detained when they were found in that area.

p.s. I was interested in learning Farsi about 10 years ago. For the heck of it. It's a beautiful language.

Edited by Renee 2010-09-16 10:33 AM

Champion

7821

Brooklyn, NY

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

I’ll also agree that Iran’s reaction was off the charts of what most people would consider reasonable, but, since you’re talking about a culture that still stones people to death for adultery, it’s clear that their definition and mine of “reasonable” are as far apart as can be.

I was surprised that the money that was paid to Iran for the release of the one woman was described, even by the US media, as “bail”. Don’t you have to be formally charged with something in order to have bail set? And isn’t bail something that you pay with the understanding that you will eventually return to face trial? Ransom is more like it.

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Champion

18680

Lost in the Luminiferous Aether

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

Renee - 2010-09-16 11:30 AM

roch1009 - 2010-09-16 11:09 AM

Regarding your question re language skills: It was reported that 2 of the 3 speak Arabic.

That won't get you far in Iran . . .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_Iran

Now, if it's determined that they (or at least one) speak Farsi, you'll see my "yuppy hiker" probability slip below 50%. Nobody learns Farsi for the heck of it.

Thanks for clearing that up. You quoted my text, so I assumed your comment was directed at me. Again, thank you.

You are assuming they would need to speak Farsi, implying that their intention was to slip into Iran. Reports claim they were detained withinin Iraq's border. If they don't speak Farsi, I'm going to assume they didn't intend to head into a Farsi speaking area.

Perhaps their mission was to meet with Arabic speaking locals who live on the border? Perhaps they were there to keep tabs on Americans who are hiking the area - and possibly slipping into Iran. Perhaps they speak Farsi. Perhaps they were there to assess loyalties of Iraqi locals.

In other words, there are many plausible reasons why an Operator would be in that area, reasons other than they were headed into Iran where they would need Farsi skills.

I think it was Gearboy who invoked Occham's Razon (forgive me if I got that wrong). Seems highly likely, even predictable, that that area would be crawling with SF. Not to slip into Iran (the ones who should be in Iran are most likely in Iran), but to observe and assess. Perhaps to make contact with the locals who can serve as their proxies to observe and assess.

A simple explanation: people whose job it is to be in that area were detained when they were found in that area.

p.s. I was interested in learning Farsi about 10 years ago. For the heck of it. It's a beautiful language.

Wait a minute you are using Occam's Razor to justify an elaborate conspiracy instad of them being stupid hikers????

Buttercup

14334

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

trinnas - 2010-09-16 11:46 AM

Renee - 2010-09-16 11:30 AM

roch1009 - 2010-09-16 11:09 AM

Regarding your question re language skills: It was reported that 2 of the 3 speak Arabic.

That won't get you far in Iran . . .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_Iran

Now, if it's determined that they (or at least one) speak Farsi, you'll see my "yuppy hiker" probability slip below 50%. Nobody learns Farsi for the heck of it.

Thanks for clearing that up. You quoted my text, so I assumed your comment was directed at me. Again, thank you.

You are assuming they would need to speak Farsi, implying that their intention was to slip into Iran. Reports claim they were detained withinin Iraq's border. If they don't speak Farsi, I'm going to assume they didn't intend to head into a Farsi speaking area.

Perhaps their mission was to meet with Arabic speaking locals who live on the border? Perhaps they were there to keep tabs on Americans who are hiking the area - and possibly slipping into Iran. Perhaps they speak Farsi. Perhaps they were there to assess loyalties of Iraqi locals.

In other words, there are many plausible reasons why an Operator would be in that area, reasons other than they were headed into Iran where they would need Farsi skills.

I think it was Gearboy who invoked Occham's Razon (forgive me if I got that wrong). Seems highly likely, even predictable, that that area would be crawling with SF. Not to slip into Iran (the ones who should be in Iran are most likely in Iran), but to observe and assess. Perhaps to make contact with the locals who can serve as their proxies to observe and assess.

A simple explanation: people whose job it is to be in that area were detained when they were found in that area.

p.s. I was interested in learning Farsi about 10 years ago. For the heck of it. It's a beautiful language.

Wait a minute you are using Occam's Razor to justify an elaborate conspiracy instad of them being stupid hikers????

Are you calling Special Forces doing what they're supposed to do, trained to do, an elaborate conspiracy? I call it "doing their job."

Let me retype it for you: people whose job it is to be in that area were detained when they were found in that area.

Champion

18680

Lost in the Luminiferous Aether

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

Renee - 2010-09-16 11:49 AM

trinnas - 2010-09-16 11:46 AM

Renee - 2010-09-16 11:30 AM

roch1009 - 2010-09-16 11:09 AM

Regarding your question re language skills: It was reported that 2 of the 3 speak Arabic.

That won't get you far in Iran . . .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_Iran

Now, if it's determined that they (or at least one) speak Farsi, you'll see my "yuppy hiker" probability slip below 50%. Nobody learns Farsi for the heck of it.

Thanks for clearing that up. You quoted my text, so I assumed your comment was directed at me. Again, thank you.

You are assuming they would need to speak Farsi, implying that their intention was to slip into Iran. Reports claim they were detained withinin Iraq's border. If they don't speak Farsi, I'm going to assume they didn't intend to head into a Farsi speaking area.

Perhaps their mission was to meet with Arabic speaking locals who live on the border? Perhaps they were there to keep tabs on Americans who are hiking the area - and possibly slipping into Iran. Perhaps they speak Farsi. Perhaps they were there to assess loyalties of Iraqi locals.

In other words, there are many plausible reasons why an Operator would be in that area, reasons other than they were headed into Iran where they would need Farsi skills.

I think it was Gearboy who invoked Occham's Razon (forgive me if I got that wrong). Seems highly likely, even predictable, that that area would be crawling with SF. Not to slip into Iran (the ones who should be in Iran are most likely in Iran), but to observe and assess. Perhaps to make contact with the locals who can serve as their proxies to observe and assess.

A simple explanation: people whose job it is to be in that area were detained when they were found in that area.

p.s. I was interested in learning Farsi about 10 years ago. For the heck of it. It's a beautiful language.

Wait a minute you are using Occam's Razor to justify an elaborate conspiracy instad of them being stupid hikers????

Are you calling Special Forces doing what they're supposed to do, trained to do, an elaborate conspiracy? I call it "doing their job."

Let me retype it for you: people whose job it is to be in that area were detained when they were found in that area.

And is all you have is an assumption that it is their job based on no evidence just a bunch of suppostition and your own biasies. 'Cause of course people don't do things like hike in "interesting" areas all over the world all the time.

Buttercup

14334

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

And what are you using to assume that they are actually hikers?

Yes, I am using my experience and perceptions; logic; my limited knowledge of Operators and their training; anecdotal stories of previous missions. It's true, all these things come to bear when I form an opinion. Reasoning to the best of my ability, as charged.

What are you using? Simple belief in what you are told? Or something more elaborate, perhaps a higher intelligence function?

Simple answer: People whose job it is to be in that area were captured and detained. Yes, that is rife with bias! I see your point now.

Of course, there's no bias in assuming their story is true and that they must, in order for their story to make sense, be "stupid."

Edited by Renee 2010-09-16 11:09 AM

Champion

18680

Lost in the Luminiferous Aether

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

Renee - 2010-09-16 12:03 PM And what are you using to assume that they are actually hikers?

Yes, I am using my experience and perceptions, my logical and limited knowledge. It's true, all these things come to bear when I form an opinion. Reasoning as charged.

What are you using? Simple belief in what you are told? Or something more elaborate, perhaps a higher intelligence function?

Simple answer: People whose job it is to be in that area were captured and detained. Yes, that is rife with bias! I see your point now.

nm

Edited by trinnas 2010-09-16 11:10 AM

Veteran

179

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

OPSEC Fail... Posting what you claim to KNOW on a public forum.. Nice

Champion

6503

NOVA - Ironic for an Endurance Athlete

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

A lot of people in the 60's and 70's were hikers in the USSR, China and Vietnam

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Pro

6767

the Alabama part of Pennsylvania

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

trinnas - 2010-09-16 11:46 AM
...

Wait a minute you are using Occam's Razor to justify an elaborate conspiracy instad of them being stupid hikers????

Now stop doing that! That's what I would say!!

Seriously - I didn't use the term Occam's Razor, but that is basically what I did when I vote ignorance over malice.

Go back to likelihoods: Who is more likely to get caught unawares? Special forces ops or a group of college-age kids who are out on a grand adventure?

Personally, I would hope that our special ops forces are at least as good at avoiding detection as the lovely lady below. Otherwise, we are in really bad shape.

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Extreme Veteran

340

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

I'm not sure if anyone has noticed, but one of the hikers is named Shane BAUER.

Which means he is obviously related to JACK BAUER...

Which means, well we all know what that means. Good luck Ahmadinejad...You'll free these kids now if you have any idea what's good for you.

**In all seriousness, I could not be any more positive that these 3 are not in any way affiliated with US/Israeli or any other Western intelligence group. But the arguments that they are do amuse me.

Especially the ambiguous..."I know about these things.." comments. If any of us knew anything about any of this you'd be hard wired to never post it on an internet chat board. Funny stuff....

Buttercup

14334

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

The father of one of my friends was CIA. His job with the CIA was to be a journalist with the Washington Post (during 60s and 70s). Unbeknownst to WaPo, of course.

We (the US) do interesting things.

I remember being at the Jefferson Inn one night, enjoying a glass of wine. My friend, the Chinese-speaking SF guy, was there with his group. They had just come out of being in the woods for a month. They drop them into the woods and leave them there. Their job is to catch what they eat, find their own water, live in the woods undetected, etc. Survival training.

When I was a kid, my parents took us to the Survival Jungle Training zoo. This was DoD property in the Canal Zone (Panama); it's where they took Marines headed for Vietnam for training. Same thing - drop them in the jungle and pull them out a month later. It wasn't far from the School of the Americas where the US trained Latin American soldiers. My father spoke fluent Spanish and Portuguese and trained some of these guys (pilots, mostly); he would often bring one home for dinner. He was very social like that.

Excuse the little stream of consciousness there.

Buttercup

14334

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

WaitingGuilty - 2010-09-16 12:49 PM

Especially the ambiguous..."I know about these things.." comments. If any of us knew anything about any of this you'd be hard wired to never post it on an internet chat board. Funny stuff....

Actually, he does know about such things. Not in a present tense, but in past experience. And, he's not saying "I know about THIS thing." I agree, if he knew about THIS thing, he would not be talking about it. These people tend to go stone-jawed silent when asked about such things. I never ask. They wouldn't appreciate being asked, either.

I don't mean to speak for him, just going based upon past comments and having seen consistency over time. Some of us long-time BTers know more backstory on each other, having read posts over the years.

That, or he's a consistent, enduring liar, both blatant and subtle. I choose not to make this assumption, having no reason to assume so.

We actually have people on the board who do know such things. Some of these people don't know that I know who they are (we know people in common). I like it that way.

There are others who do know I know and I'm sure they'd prefer I say nothing else about it.

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

WaitingGuilty - 2010-09-16 9:49 AM I'm not sure if anyone has noticed, but one of the hikers is named Shane BAUER.

Which means he is obviously related to JACK BAUER...

Which means, well we all know what that means. Good luck Ahmadinejad...You'll free these kids now if you have any idea what's good for you.

**In all seriousness, I could not be any more positive that these 3 are not in any way affiliated with US/Israeli or any other Western intelligence group. But the arguments that they are do amuse me.

Especially the ambiguous..."I know about these things.." comments. If any of us knew anything about any of this you'd be hard wired to never post it on an internet chat board. Funny stuff....

I get it now... it depends on what you mean by "this" thing. If by that you mean "this" thing, and your source is the uncle of a college roommate's girlfriend's coke supplier, then I see your point, but if you meant perchance to refer to "that" thing, well by god you're nucking futs

This is turning into one of CoJ's better threads... long may it wave

Oh, I forgot to add... Obama says they're not spies. Obama doesn't lie. Therefore, ergo, etc.... they are not spies. Unless, of course, the premise is wrong...... uh oh

Edited by ChrisM 2010-09-16 12:17 PM

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Elite

3090

Spokane, WA

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

gearboy - 2010-09-16 11:45 AM

trinnas - 2010-09-16 11:46 AM
...

Wait a minute you are using Occam's Razor to justify an elaborate conspiracy instad of them being stupid hikers????

Now stop doing that! That's what I would say!!

Seriously - I didn't use the term Occam's Razor, but that is basically what I did when I vote ignorance over malice.

Go back to likelihoods: Who is more likely to get caught unawares? Special forces ops or a group of college-age kids who are out on a grand adventure?

Personally, I would hope that our special ops forces are at least as good at avoiding detection as the lovely lady below. Otherwise, we are in really bad shape.

That's an excellent point. If they're operators, they're not very good. It's a pretty big leap of faith to assume they're special ops and are totally unaware of Iranian police/security forces in the area.

Nice pic, too!

Edited by zed707 2010-09-16 12:28 PM

Melon Presser

52116

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

ChrisM - 2010-09-17 1:14 AM

WaitingGuilty - 2010-09-16 9:49 AM I'm not sure if anyone has noticed, but one of the hikers is named Shane BAUER.

Which means he is obviously related to JACK BAUER...

Which means, well we all know what that means. Good luck Ahmadinejad...You'll free these kids now if you have any idea what's good for you.

**In all seriousness, I could not be any more positive that these 3 are not in any way affiliated with US/Israeli or any other Western intelligence group. But the arguments that they are do amuse me.

Especially the ambiguous..."I know about these things.." comments. If any of us knew anything about any of this you'd be hard wired to never post it on an internet chat board. Funny stuff....

I get it now... it depends on what you mean by "this" thing. If by that you mean "this" thing, and your source is the uncle of a college roommate's girlfriend's coke supplier, then I see your point, but if you meant perchance to refer to "that" thing, well by god you're nucking futs

This is turning into one of CoJ's better threads... long may it wave

Oh, I forgot to add... Obama says they're not spies. Obama doesn't lie. Therefore, ergo, etc.... they are not spies. Unless, of course, the premise is wrong...... uh oh

So far, there's a picture of a hot chick. I'm waiting for a puppy pic, and of course, one of a smokin' piglet. You volunteering?

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Extreme Veteran

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Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

Renee...

This "He" you speak of...I was not singling anyone out, just the overall vibe from some that are so sure that there is meat on this bone based on what is likely their proclivity to read Tom Clancy novels.

I did not imply that there was nobody on BT who may have some background in these matters. I simply stated my opinion that those types of people (In all likelihood) do not go around TELLING people on chat rooms that they have experience in these matters.

That seems like a reasonable assumption to make no?

Subject: ...

This user's post has been ignored.

Subject: ...

This user's post has been ignored.

Edited by PennState 2010-09-16 12:35 PM

Extreme Veteran

340

Subject: RE: I'm curious about "hiking in Iran"

^SPY!!!!!!!

That's how they roll! Confusion and subterfuge.

I'm curious about "hiking in Iran" (Page 3)

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